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How many times have you seen a team fight their way to the Stanley Cup finals on the backs of an unbeatable goalie? Roberto Luongo could be this year's Patrick Roy. However, instead of facing the inexperienced Cinderella Blues, this time he'll have to get by Joel Quenneville's equally young, but substantially faster, deeper and tougher Chicago Blackhawks.
Vancouver Offense vs Chicago Defense
Vancouver Canucks Offense GVT: + 8.9 (Rank: 11th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Defense: + 13.7 (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending: + 6.7 (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: Chicago -11.5
While offense is not Vancouver's strong suit at just 0.78 Offensive GVT per game, (see detailed breakdown below) they are not entirely without weapons. Henrik and Daniel Sedin combined for 9 points in the first 3 games, already matching their 12-game combined total in 2007. Iain Fyffe earlier drew our attention to Alex Burrows, one of the more underrated offensive contributors, the “secret weapon for the Canucks on offense.” Burrows bagged 3 goals in 4 games, so he's certanly no secret any longer. Ryan Kesler, Pavol Demitra and Kevin Bieksa were Vancouver's other top offensive weapons in the regular season, and they could break out against Chicago.
Chicago was very strong defensively in the regular season, averaging 1.05 of defensive GVT per game. Nikolai Khabibulin, who contributed a third of that, played well enough to help Chicago win 2 of the super-tight first 4 games, and then was the key difference in game 6. Expect to see Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook hop out on defense to neutralize the Sedins every time they show up, and the Hawks will be counting on continued defensive contributions from Andrew Ladd up front.
Advantage: Chicago
Chicago Offense vs Vancouver Defense
Chicago Blackhawks Offense GVT: + 19.1 (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Defense: +8.5 (Rank: 9th in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Goaltending: +12.0 (Rank: 6th in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: Vancouver -1.4
Chicago's offense is among the strongest and deepest, and it was in full display in the opening round as six players scored at least 6 points, and five more had at least 3. In the regular season they averaged 0.93 offensive GVT/game thanks to Martin Havlat, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Kris Versteeg up front, and Brian Campbell and Cam Barker on defense. Last round they got unexpected scoring from Seabrook, Dustin Byfuglien, Sami Pahlsson and Dave Bolland, but they're looking for more offensively from Duncan Keith and Andrew Ladd.
Defense is the Canucks' strong suit, “where Vancouver really shines”, says Fyffe, averaging 0.92 defensive GVT per game. Even without their exceptional goaltending, Vancouver is a strong defensive team. Willie Mitchell is their stand-out defensive defenseman, joined by solid defensive play from Alexander Edler and Mattias Ohlund. Up front their best offensive players (Burrows, Sedins) are also their best defensively. Despite being swept, the St. Louis Blues exposed some of their weak links (Rick Rypien, -2 with 12 penalty minutes), and holes that will be exploited by Chicago, especially when line-matching on home ice.
Advantage: Even
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
ValO: Offensive GVT
ValD: Defensive GVT
ValG: Goaltending GVT
TOT: Offensive and Defensive GVT combined (Shootout GVT not included)
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Daniel Sedin F 82 31 51 82 +24 +17.8 13.3 5.3 18.6
Henrik Sedin F 82 22 60 82 +22 +14.7 11.4 5.0 16.4
Alexandre Burrows F 82 28 23 51 +23 +11.9 7.0 4.7 11.7
Ryan Kesler F 82 26 33 59 +8 -1.5 7.0 2.6 9.6
Willie Mitchell D 82 3 20 23 +29 +14.8 1.1 7.7 8.8
Alexander Edler D 80 10 27 37 +11 +3.6 4.3 4.5 8.8
Pavol Demitra F 69 20 33 53 +6 +0.4 6.1 1.9 8.0
Kevin Bieksa D 72 11 32 43 -4 -11.4 6.5 0.5 7.0
Mattias Ohlund D 82 6 19 25 +14 +3.0 0.7 4.6 5.3
Sami Salo D 60 5 20 25 +5 -1.1 2.8 2.3 5.1
Steve Bernier F 81 15 17 32 +4 +0.0 1.2 1.5 2.7
Kyle Wellwood F 74 18 9 27 +2 -0.6 1.3 1.2 2.5
Ossi Vaananen D 49 1 10 11 +8 +1.9 0.4 1.7 2.1
Mason Raymond F 72 11 12 23 +2 -1.6 0.7 1.0 1.7
Mats Sundin F 41 9 19 28 -5 -7.4 1.8 -0.2 1.6
Jannik Hansen F 55 6 15 21 +5 -0.8 -0.2 1.3 1.1
Shane O'Brien D 76 0 10 10 +6 -1.3 -1.7 2.2 0.5
Taylor Pyatt F 69 10 9 19 +0 -5.7 -1.0 0.6 -0.4
Ryan Johnson F 62 2 7 9 +1 -4.3 -1.9 0.8 -1.1
Darcy Hordichuk F 73 4 1 5 +1 -0.8 -2.2 0.6 -1.6
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Roberto Luongo 53.0 2.34 0.920 19.6 0.2 19.8
Curtis Sanford 16.2 2.59 0.906 1.0 0.3 1.3
Jason LaBarbera 24.1 2.78 0.901 -1.8 0.4 -1.4
Cory Schneider 5.9 3.38 0.877 -3.5 0.1 -3.4
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Martin Havlat F 81 29 48 77 +29 +17.9 11.1 5.6 16.7
Duncan Keith D 77 8 36 44 +33 +15.3 6.3 8.5 14.8
Jonathan Toews F 82 34 35 69 +12 +3.9 9.6 3.0 12.6
Kris Versteeg F 78 22 31 53 +15 +5.3 7.9 3.2 11.1
Andrew Ladd F 82 15 34 49 +26 +14.4 5.3 4.8 10.1
Patrick Kane F 80 25 45 70 -2 -7.7 9.1 0.6 9.7
Brian Campbell D 82 7 45 52 +5 -4.5 7.0 2.7 9.7
Dave Bolland F 81 19 28 47 +19 +4.9 4.6 3.7 8.3
Patrick Sharp F 61 26 18 44 +6 +2.0 5.9 1.8 7.7
Brent Seabrook D 82 8 18 26 +23 +6.7 1.4 6.0 7.4
Cam Barker D 68 6 34 40 -6 -11.1 6.0 -0.1 5.9
Aaron Johnson D 38 3 5 8 +19 +14.3 0.7 5.0 5.7
Dustin Byfuglien F 77 15 16 31 +7 +2.8 2.0 1.9 3.9
Matt Walker D 65 1 13 14 +7 -3.6 0.2 1.7 1.9
Troy Brouwer F 69 10 16 26 +7 +2.0 -0.4 1.9 1.5
Niklas Hjalmarsson D 21 1 2 3 +4 +1.4 0.1 1.1 1.2
Colin Fraser F 81 6 11 17 +3 -5.8 -0.8 1.1 0.3
Adam Burish F 66 6 3 9 +3 -1.6 -1.3 0.9 -0.4
Brent Sopel D 23 1 1 2 -4 -7.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
Samuel Pahlsson F 65 7 11 18 -17 -21.0 -2.7 -1.7 -4.4
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Nikolai Khabibulin 41.1 2.33 0.919 13.9 0.4 14.3
Cristobal Huet 39.2 2.53 0.909 3.7 0.8 4.5
Vancouver Power Play vs Chicago Penalty Kill
Legend:
PPO: Power Play Offense GVT
PPD: Power Play Defense GVT
PEND: Penalties Drawn GVT
PPTOT: Power Play Total GVT
SHO: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Offense GVT
SHD: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Defense GVT
PENT: Penalties Taken GVT
SHTOT: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Total GVT
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Vancouver 0.7 3.2 1.2 5.1
NHLRANK 17 5 16 24
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Chicago 2.4 -1.5 1.8 2.7
NHLRANK 12 19 13 15
Vancouver struck for 4 power play goals in 18 opportunities, good for 5th best among the 16 playoff teams last round. Their power play can be potent at times with the Sedins and Demitra, but lacks the same depth of the truly great power plays. The Chicago Blackhawks were decent at killing penalties in the regular season, but were 4th best in the first round. They killed all but 2 of their 18 penalties in the first round, but that may be more a result of Calgary's struggling power play than Chicago's penalty-killing abilities.
Advantage: Vancouver
Chicago Power Play vs Vancouver Penalty Kill
Legend:
PPO: Power Play Offense GVT
PPD: Power Play Defense GVT
PEND: Penalties Drawn GVT
PPTOT: Power Play Total GVT
SHO: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Offense GVT
SHD: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Defense GVT
PENT: Penalties Taken GVT
SHTOT: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Total GVT
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Chicago 1.2 2.3 3.7 7.2
NHLRANK 11 10 3 9
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Vancouver -0.7 -1.7 -4.7 -7.1
NHLRANK 20 16 26 21
Vancouver were heavily penalized in the first round, but fortunately for them the Blues only made the Canucks pay once. That came as a big surprise to us at Puck Prospectus after watching such an unimpressive penalty killing team all season. Perhaps we'll see different results this round against the superior Chicago power play, which led all teams in the first round with 7 power play goals in 24 opportunities.
Advantage: Chicago
Season Series
Chicago and Vancouver split the season series two games apiece, but Vancouver won the last two by a combined 11-3 margin. Overall they outscored Chicago 14-10. However, this is too small a sample size to give them the advantage.
Advantage: Even
The key intangible? Roberto Luongo. With exceptional play, he may negate everyone's best efforts at analysis the same way Mikka Kiprusoff did in 2004. Even as I type my prediction, I can almost picture Luongo single-handedly deciding that Vancouver will advance no matter what.
Penalites taken equates to another intangible. Vancouver was worst among playoff teams in the first round in penalties taken relative to hits thrown, whereas Chicago was the best. Call it luck, call it savviness, call it discipline, but Chicago knows how and when to take a chance without getting the whistle blown on them – just ask Kiprusoff.
As for injuries, Chicago should start the round with a complete and healthy lineup. Vancouver's not quite so lucky. Sami Salo was great in the first round, and Vancouver will be counting on him to play through his injuries in round two. If Mats Sundin is back in the lineup he may not bring his best stuff. Sundin's best days are behind him, but Vancouver's going to need every bit of scoring they can get to beat the Blackhawks. Vancouver is also hoping to get a boost if and when Taylor Pyatt returns to the lineup from personal leave.
Advantage: Chicago
Roberto Luongo is a fantastic goalie, but will it be enough against Chicago's deep pool of offensive and defensive talent? Home ice advantage should give Vancouver a line-matching edge to make sure that their less numerous but equally potent threats are used to maximum effect, but it will be a challenge for them to score enough to win four games.
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks in 7 games
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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