October 6, 2011
Shots On Goal
Fantasy Week 1

by Timo Seppa

Welcome back for another year of Shots On Goal, fantasy hockey coverage with a stats edge behind it.

As there isn't too much to analyze for Week 1—hopefully, you used VUKOTA projections as one tool in your kit during your draft—I thought it might be fun ("educational", as they say) to look over the draft of the TUFNEL Hockey league that I play in. You might also recognize the names of Hockey Prospectus' Ryan Wagman and Baseball Prospectus' Joe Hamrahi, who also participate in the league…as does a Draft Robot by the name of "Ryan P". No comment.

It's a 10-team league, with seven categories for skaters (goals, assists, plus-minus, power play points, shorthanded points, penalty minutes—yes, meaning penalties are "good"—and hits), and four categories for goalies (wins, GAA, save percentage, and shutouts). Daily lineup changes, no keepers. Active lineup: 4 centers, 7 wings, 4 defensemen, 2 goalies. The six bench slots, which are rotated in throughout the week, might typically be used on 1 center, 2 wings, 2 defensemen, 1 goalie.

The format's borrowed from the Hockey Writers' Challenge, which I had the pleasure of participating in for the past two years (thanks, Mike Colligan). Last season, I was the top-seeded team heading into the playoffs (thanks, Tim Thomas), but ended up getting edged out in the finals (thanks, Zach Parise).

Here's how the first couple of rounds shaped up in this season's TUFNEL Hockey draft (with my commentary):

ROUND ONE

1. Rob: W Alex Ovechkin, Capitals

It's got to be Ovechkin or Stamkos for the first overall pick, right? VUKOTA's got Ovie at 98 points, but would you be surprised by a 109-110 point effort, like two and three years ago? No.

2. Dave #1: G Henrik Lundqvist, Rangers

Dave was late arriving to the draft. He ended up with Lundqvist, VUKOTA's top ranked goaltender. Last year, King Henrik was a mid-second round pick for me.

3. The Draft Robot: W Daniel Sedin, Canucks

Well, Mr. Robot, that pick should have been Stamkos, don't you think? Don't be shocked if Daniel splits the difference between VUKOTA's 86 points and last season's 104 points, given coach Vigneault's high percentage of offensive zone starts for the Sedins, compared to a couple of years ago. VUKOTA doesn't know that.

4. Dave #2: C Steven Stamkos

While VUKOTA's got Stamkos tied in production with Ovechkin at 98 points, I ding him just a little bit for his lower scoring rate from the second half of 2010-11.

5. Ryan: C Sidney Crosby, Penguins

Heck of a ballsy pick here. It's either boom or bust. Or maybe both. If Ryan can survive the first part of the season without Crosby, it could end up a very good choice. If Crosby's himself. I figured Sid might have gone in the second round, all things considered.

6. Matthew: W Corey Perry, Ducks

To be nitpicky, Perry might be ever-so-slightly overvalued in fantasy and even by VUKOTA, but he's a good performer in every category.

7. Joe: C Henrik Sedin, Canucks

A round higher than I would have gone with Henrik. Assists are generally easier to come by than goals.

8. Fred: W Bobby Ryan, Ducks

Perry gets a bit more favorable usage than Ryan (e.g. first unit power play), otherwise their fantasy value might be equal.

9. Timo: C Jonathan Toews, Blackhawks

Quandary here, and I'm not 100% satisfied with my choice. If there had been a run of goalies, I would have considered an elite netminder. As it was, there was no need. So it ended up being a coin flip between Toews and Kane. Ideally, I would have preferred picking a wing over the deeper center position. Overall, I like the Blackhawks this season, so I'm looking for improved PPP and plus-minus from all of them.

10. Jon: W Patrick Kane, Blackhawks

Kane's going to be behind Toews in plus-minus, but otherwise they're very similar fantasy players. You look for a rebound, both personally and as far as the Blackhawks, so he was a viable pick here.

ROUND TWO

11. Jon: G Carey Price, Canadiens

VUKOTA's second-ranked netminder. Hey, was someone paying attention?

12. Timo: W Claude Giroux, Flyers

Another quandary, and another unsatisfying choice for me. Ryan liked my pick, but I'm not so sure. Then again, I picked Zach Parise fifth overall last season, so how much worse can these two picks work out? At least I picked up a wing here.

13. Fred: C Evgeni Malkin, Penguins

A bit earlier than I would have taken the Art Ross Trophy winner from three seasons ago, but in an ideal world, he could be worth it. Combination of center, more assists than goals, injury concerns would keep me away. Frankly, I might even take a Brad Richards ahead of Malkin. Fred (a Stars fan) doesn't want to hear that.

14. Joe: W Martin St. Louis, Lightning

Color me skeptical that St. Louis is going to keep adding points as he ages, his trend over the past few seasons. Overall, look for an off-year from the Bolts' Cinderella ride in general. I avoided Tampa players.

15. Matthew: C Eric Staal, Hurricanes

In this league, with shorthanded points counted, Staal's a nice pickup.

16. Ryan: C Pavel Datsyuk, Red Wings

I'm not sure if I believe in the overall narrative of the Red Wings' decline (I'll believe it when I see it), but I might have looked elsewhere with this pick.

17. Dave #2: D Mike Green, Capitals

First real clunker for me. Dave's a Caps fan, and Green certainly can be elite. I believe in picking lots of Capitals, but a defenseman needs to be out of this world to take this early. I got Lidstrom in the fifth round last season. Now that's value.

18. Robot: G Antti Niemi, Sharks

Seriously, folks. The rankings of a certain website out there had Niemi ranked this high among netminders. Seriously. The Robot punts.

19. Dave #1: G Pekka Rinne, Predators

Fourth goaltender overall by VUKOTA, but I would have been eyeing the last two…er, three…Vezina winners in Tim Thomas and Ryan Miller here instead.

20. Rob: C Henrik Zetterberg, Red Wings

I've never owned Zetterberg in fantasy. Always seems to be a better choice. Probably some kind of fantasy blind spot for me.

21. Rob: C Jeff Skinner, Hurricanes

Awesome pick here. I'm on board with VUKOTA's bullishness on the sophomore who scored over 30 goals and over 60 points in his rookie season. Sounds like he'll play with Eric Staal as well.

22. Dave #1: W Jarome Iginla, Flames

He's old, and he was hot and cold. I tend towards picking pre-peak vs. post-peak players.

23. Robot: G Roberto Luongo, Canucks

The Robot's hoarding goalies here, this one's pretty solid.

24. Dave #2: G Ryan Miller, Sabres

Dang, I was hoping he might fall to 29. Combo of Vezina potential and a strong Buffalo squad make Miller very attractive.

25. Ryan: D Shea Weber, Predators

He scores, he hits, and the Preds play pretty well at even strength. He's a defenseman, though. Too early for my liking, especially with tons of similar value blueliners on the board.

26. Matthew: D Dustin Byfuglien, Jets

He scores and…well, I'll save the fresh comments to myself. Too early for my liking, although my own run of defensemen ended up starting a hair late, conversely.

27. Joe: G Tim Thomas, Bruins

I understand that Rask may get plenty of starts, but I'll split the difference between VUKOTA's projection (colored by Thomas nagging injuries in 2009-10) and last season's Vezina campaign. I'm a believer.

28. Fred: D Nicklas Lidstrom, Red Wings

Lidstrom used to be a legit first round pick as a defenseman. Years ago. Still too early for this run, in my opinion.

29. Timo: G Tomas Vokoun, Capitals

Ideally, I would have wanted Miller and/or Thomas. This could work out just as well. We're big believers in Vokoun at Hockey Prospectus, and he's just been put on the top-ranked team. The only negative is probably only starting two-thirds of the games.

30. Jon: C Nicklas Backstrom, Capitals

Backstrom was a first or second round pick the last couple of years, and if he returns to form, this ends up a great value pick.

Here's my overall team:

Centers – Jonathan Toews, Blackhawks; Ryan Getzlaf, Ducks; John Tavares, Islanders; Derek Stepan, Rangers; Frans Nielsen, Islanders.

Wings – Claude Giroux, Flyers; Brandon Dubinsky, Rangers; Milan Lucic, Bruins; Simon Gagne, Kings; Teemu Selanne, Ducks; Ville Leino, Sabres; Chris Neil, Senators; Dan Carcillo, Blackhawks; Kyle Okposo, Islanders; David Booth, Panthers (free agent pickup for IR player).

Defensemen – Matt Carle, Flyers; Alexander Edler, Canucks; Travis Hamonic, Islanders; Cam Fowler, Ducks; Erik Johnson, Avalanche (free agent pickup for injured player). Marc Staal, Rangers and Andrei Markov, Canadiens on IR.

Goaltenders – Tomas Vokoun, Capitals; Cam Ward, Hurricanes; Jaroslav Halak, Blues.

What do you think?

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.