May 1, 2009
NHL Playoffs, Second Round
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

by Andrew Rothstein

This will be the eighth time that the Penguins and Capitals come head to head in the NHL playoffs. Finally, the NHL gets to have its two superstars, Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, face one another. The fun doesn’t stop there as Evgeni Malkin, Mike Green and Alexander Semin, are also worthy of star status. If your thinking we’re about to see the highest scoring playoff matchup this NHL postseason, you're probably correct.

Washington Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Washington Offense GVT: + 15.8 (Rank: 6^th in NHL)

Pittsburgh Defense GVT: - 0.8 (Rank: 18^th in NHL)

Pittsburgh Goaltending GVT: + 1.6 (Rank: 16^th in NHL)

The Rangers could only tame the offense of the Washington Capitals for so long. Alexander Ovechkin (+ 25. 6 GVT), Alexander Semin (+ 22.3 GVT), Nicklas Backstrom (+ 17.4 GVT) and offensive defenseman Mike Green (+ 26.8) are absolute forces to be reckoned with, but there depth on offense drops dramatically after these four. Marc-Andre Fleury (+ 11.1 GVT) has been good on the year, but he’s been no Henrik Lundqvist (+18.8 GVT). King Henrik had to be pulled twice in the first round and posted a mediocre .908 save percentage. Expect Fleury to have a more difficult time against Washington than he did against Philadelphia and for Washington to consistently score 3 to 5 goals per game.

The Penguins might have difficulty keeping the Capitals first line of Alexander Ovechkin, Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov, as well as the Capitals second line of Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Tomas Fleischmann out of their zone. Former Capital Sergei Gonchar (+ 2.6 Defensive GVT) has been fairly pedestrian on defense, but the biggest problem is that Evgeni Malkin has been the Penguins second best player on defense this year, in terms of defensive GVT (+ 4.5). This says more about the lack of defense the Penguins play, then Malkin’s defensive skill. Thankfully, the Penguins have an offense.

Advantage: Washington Capitals

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Washington Defense

Pittsburgh Offense GVT: + 28.4 (Ranks: 2^nd in NHL)

Washington Defense GVT: + 6.3 (Rank: 12^th in NHL)

Washington Goaltending GVT: - 1.6 (Rank: 17^th in NHL)

It’s apparent that this matchup will come down to which offense can light up the oppositions defense and goaltending the most. While the Penguins have more ‘name recognition’ depth (Petr Sykora, Jordan Staal, Bill Guerin) than the Capitals, they actually have less depth, performance-wise, this year. Only two starting skaters have contributed a GVT greater than 10 to the team: Sidney Crosby (+ 18.7 GVT) and Evgeni Malkin (+23.4 GVT). These two combined have constituted 40 % of the Penguins offense and have added 17 Points, 8 Goals, 5 Even Strength Goals and 44 Shots on Goal to the Penguins offense in the first round. If Mike Green and the rest of the Capital defensemen can prevent the Penguins first line of Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby and Bill Guerrin from doing serious damage, and reasonably contain the second line of Ruslan Fedotenko, Evgeni Malkin and Max Talbot, Washington will be in the drivers seat. However, this won't be easy as Crosby and Malkin are considered among the NHL's best for a reason.

While Simeon Varlamov is a significant improvement to Jose Theodore, which is not much of an achievement considering a replacement level goaltender would be better than Theodore, there is a huge difference between defending the net against Nikolai Zherdev and Sidney Crosby. Varlamov will be prepared, but it doesn’t mean he’ll be able to stop Crosby and company.

Advantage: Pittsburgh Penguins

Washington Power Play vs. Pittsburgh Penalty Kill

Washington Power Play Offense GVT: + 21.1 (Rank: 2^nd in NHL)

Pittsburgh Penalty Kill Defense GVT: + 5.8 (Rank: 6^th in NHL)

The Penguins are very efficient at killing penalties. Defenseman Rob Scuderi, holder of the top defensive GVT for Pittsburgh on the year, saw the most penalty killing time (21:24 SHTOI) in the first round. The 6^th best Power Play Offense belonged to the Philadelphia Flyers, who managed to score 4 Goals on 47 Shots On Goal during 36 Power Plays in the first round. An 11 % Power Play conversion rate is underwhelming for Philadelphia, and it might be difficult to keep Washington around that number.

Washington converted on roughly 10 % of Power Plays for 6 Goals, a number that is also unusually low compared to their regular season 18.2 % Power Play conversion rate. A power play unit consisting primarily of Green, Semin, Ovechkin and Backstrom should be able to turn things around against a career mediocre goaltender, though it will be a tall order given the Penguins ability to kill 86.7 % of penalties this year.

Advantage: Washington Capitals

Pittsburgh Power Play vs. Washington Penalty Kill

Pittsburgh Power Play Offense GVT: -6.2 (Rank: 20^th in NHL)

Washington Penalty Kill Defense GVT: -1.7 (Rank: 18^th in NHL)

Both Pittsburgh and Washington struggle on the power play. Evgeni Malkin and Petr Sykora led the Penguins in power play scoring with 14 Goals and 13 Goals, respectively. No other Penguins skater reached the 10 Goal mark on a power play unit that couldn’t convert more than 12.5 % of the time this season.

While Washington has appeared to be excellent at killing penalties 87.1 % of the time in the playoffs, their penalty killing GVT from the regular season shows that they're really just a league average group. Still, Washington should have the advantage in a situation that would have been a toss up until Simeon Varlamov came onto the scene.

Advantage: Washington Capitals

Season Series Results

Washington took 3 of the 4 contests against Pittsburgh, with their only loss coming in a 4-3 loss in the shootout. Sidney Crosby led the Penguins with 7 Points, while Alexander Semin, Alexander Ovechkin and Brooks Laich were in a three way tie with 6 Points. Also, in three of the four games, Washington scored four or more goals. Though this is a small sample size, this isn’t a good trend for Pittsburgh.

Advantage: Washington Capitals

Injuries and Intangibles

Don Brashear will be serving the remainder of his six game suspension, five games for his blind-sided hit to Rangers forward Blair Betts and one game for shoving Colton Orr during pre-game warm-ups, from game 6 of the Washington-New York Series. Jose Theodore will be out of the net to make way for Russian phenom Simeon Varlamov, who was impressive in the first round of the playoffs. Since his firing, the passive system utilized by former Penguins Coach Michel Therrien has been replaced by new head Coach Dan Bylsma’s in more aggressive system. Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz and Craig Adams were added for wing depth to the Penguins roster, and the team has been hot ever since. Viktor Kozlov has been the ‘Penguin Killer’ on the Capitals, though he didn't leave much of a mark in the season series this year.

Advantage: Even

Predictions

Based on Puck Prospectus’ series odds, the Capitals have a 52 % chance of advancing into Round 3, making this the closest contest of the entire postseason thus far. Both offenses are good and both team’s defenses are suspect. Likewise both teams have one good special teams unit and one bad one. This could come down to goaltending, and Simeon Varlamov has been very good so far in the postseason.

Prediction: Washington Capitals in 7 games

Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.