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The Titanic and the Iceberg: In the narrative, everyone always blames the Titanic, but no one ever gives credit to the iceberg. Today, we’re going to give credit where credit is due: To the eighth seeded Anaheim Ducks, who sunk the big bad Presidents’ Trophy winning San Jose Sharks in round one of the playoffs.
In all seriousness, while it was instructive to pick apart the underachievers on the Sharks, it is only fair to take a close look at the Ducks to see who in particular was instrumental to their winning of the series and who was just along for the ride. Any analysis that looks at only one side of the puck is naturally going to be limited in perspective.
In contrast to the Sharks’ postseason underachievements, the Ducks’ playoff success has generally been on par with their regular season success:
Season Points Regular season finish Postseason result
2005-6 98 3rd place, Pacific Division Eliminated in 3rd round (4-1)
2006-7 110 1st place, Pacific Division Stanley Cup champions (4-1)
2007-8 102 2nd place, Pacific Division Eliminated in 1st round (4-2)
2008-9 91 2nd place, Pacific Division Advanced to 2nd round
This postseason, rookie goalie Jonas Hiller is of course a big reason why the Ducks are still playing and why the Ducks are now tied 1-1 in their series with the Red Wings. Hiller’s .957 save percentage in the Sharks series helped negate a massive 38 to 26 SOG per game advantage for San Jose. On the other hand, the disappointing .890 save percentage of San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov helped make Anaheim skaters look better than they really are. It’s true that great goaltending can keep even a leaky ship afloat, while poor goaltending will almost certainly sink the most majestic vessels.
On a whole, though, the Sharks defense more or less did their job, with team defense keeping the number of shots down to make up for Nabokov’s below average save percentage. Akin to our analysis of San Jose players, the table below shows how the Ducks’ individual players fared on offense, compared to what would be expected of them over 6 games based on regular season rates:
Player Pos G A P
Ryan Carter* C +1.8 +1.6 +3.4
Mike Brown R -0.3 +1.8 +1.5
Rob Niedermayer C -1.1 +2.5 +1.4
Ryan Getzlaf C +0.1 +1.1 +1.3
Ryan Whitney D -0.3 +1.4 +1.1
Drew Miller L +1.1 -0.3 +0.8
Scott Niedermayer D +0.0 +0.7 +0.7
Chris Pronger D +0.2 +0.3 +0.5
Todd Marchant C -0.4 -0.1 -0.5
Francois Beauchemin D -0.2 -0.3 -0.5
Petteri Nokelainen* C -0.2 -0.3 -0.5
Sheldon Brookbank D -0.1 -0.4 -0.5
George Parros R -0.4 -0.4 -0.8
James Wisniewski D +0.6 -1.6 -1.0
Bobby Ryan R +1.1 -2.4 -1.3
Corey Perry R +0.5 -2.1 -1.5
Erik Christensen C -0.7 -1.0 -1.6
Andrew Ebbett C +0.0 -2.0 -2.0
Teemu Selanne R -1.5 -1.5 -3.0
*Played in 3 games – Stats prorated to 6 games’ performance
For the series, Anaheim’s offensive performance as a team was roughly on par with what was expected by regular season rates. Therefore, it’s not surprising to see that the first line of Ryan Getzlaf (25 G, 66 A, 91 P), Corey Perry (32 G, 40 A, 72 P) and Bobby Ryan (31 G, 26 A, 57 P in 64 games) were responsible for a large percentage of goals, in line with their fine scoring levels during the regular season. In contrast, the most underperforming line was that of Erik Christensen, Andrew Ebbett and Teemu Selanne, all at the bottom of the table, with each player tallying 1.6-3.0 points less than expected for the series. To coach Randy Carlyle’s credit, he identified the lackluster play of this unit; in attempts to change the mix, Christensen sat out 3 of the 6 games. Ryan Carter only played 3 games in the series, but was an offensive standout, posting a prorated 3.4 points more than expected by his regular season performance.
As a partial explanation of Carter’s improved scoring levels, it’s not surprising to see that he took more 10 SOG more than his baseline:
Player Pos G A P SOG
Ryan Carter* C +1.8 +1.6 +3.4 +10
Bobby Ryan R +1.1 -2.4 -1.3 +7
Drew Miller L +1.1 -0.3 +0.8 +4
Todd Marchant C -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 +2
George Parros R -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 +1
Scott Niedermayer D +0.0 +0.7 +0.7 +1
James Wisniewski D +0.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2
Chris Pronger D +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 -2
Mike Brown R -0.3 +1.8 +1.5 -3
Petteri Nokelainen* C -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -3
Erik Christensen C -0.7 -1.0 -1.6 -3
Sheldon Brookbank D -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -4
Rob Niedermayer C -1.1 +2.5 +1.4 -5
Corey Perry R +0.5 -2.1 -1.5 -5
Andrew Ebbett C +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6
Ryan Whitney D -0.3 +1.4 +1.1 -6
Ryan Getzlaf C +0.1 +1.1 +1.3 -7
Teemu Selanne R -1.5 -1.5 -3.0 -7
Francois Beauchemin D -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -11
*Played in 3 games – Stats prorated to 6 games’ performance
Likewise, the increased output of Bobby Ryan and Drew Miller was in part due to the fact that they shot the puck more than usual. Overall though, most Anaheim skaters pulled the trigger less rather than more in the series. Therefore, to score at roughly the same clip as during the regular season, it would stand to reason that more Ducks' shots were going in:
Player Pos G A P SOG S%
Francois Beauchemin D -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -11 +24
Ryan Carter* C +1.8 +1.6 +3.4 +10 +9
Ryan Getzlaf C +0.1 +1.1 +1.3 -7 +9
James Wisniewski D +0.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2 +8
Corey Perry R +0.5 -2.1 -1.5 -5 +6
Andrew Ebbett C +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6 +6
Drew Miller L +1.1 -0.3 +0.8 +4 +5
Chris Pronger D +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 -2 +3
Bobby Ryan R +1.1 -2.4 -1.3 +7 +0
Scott Niedermayer D +0.0 +0.7 +0.7 +1 -1
Ryan Whitney D -0.3 +1.4 +1.1 -6 -3
Sheldon Brookbank D -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -4 -3
Teemu Selanne R -1.5 -1.5 -3.0 -7 -5
Mike Brown R -0.3 +1.8 +1.5 -3 -5
Todd Marchant C -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 +2 -5
Erik Christensen C -0.7 -1.0 -1.6 -3 -6
Petteri Nokelainen* C -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -3 -7
George Parros R -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 +1 -11
Rob Niedermayer C -1.1 +2.5 +1.4 -5 -16
*Played in 3 games – Stats prorated to 6 games’ performance
This was the case with many of the key contributors, but not a consistent truth up and down the lineup. In particular, we do see that Ryan Carter increased his scoring rate in addition to throwing more rubber at the net – a great combination that any coach would take, but in contrast, Teemu Selanne both shot less than usual and less accurately than usual – a result that hints at either bad luck or underwhelming linemates. Rob Niedermayer concentrated more on attempting to set up his teammates than shooting to score himself.
Over the course of the regular season, it’s not surprising that the Ducks were mediocre in plus/minus rating, as they were, after all, only good enough to sneak in the back door of the playoffs. Bobby Ryan led the team with a comparatively excellent +13, star center Ryan Getzlaf turned in a pedestrian +5, while veterans such as Teemu Selanne (-3), Scott Niedermayer (-8) and Rob Niedermayer (-17) ranged from worse than you might expect to horrible. Therefore, the returned dominance of key veteran players in the San Jose series shows up in the better than expected plus/minus ratings compared to regular season baselines:
Player Pos +/-
Chris Pronger D +6
Rob Niedermayer C +5
Ryan Getzlaf C +5
Ryan Whitney D +4
Scott Niedermayer D +4
Corey Perry R +3
Drew Miller L +3
Bobby Ryan R +3
Todd Marchant C +2
Francois Beauchemin D +2
James Wisniewski D +2
Ryan Carter* C +2
Mike Brown R +1
Teemu Selanne R +0
Petteri Nokelainen* C +0
Erik Christensen C +0
George Parros R -1
Andrew Ebbett C -1
Sheldon Brookbank D -2
*Played in 3 games – Stats prorated to 6 games’ performance
The Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan and Marchant-Miller-Rob Niedermayer lines performed well, along with the top two defensive pairings of Pronger-Whitney and Scott Niedermayer-Wisniewski. Getzlaf and Pronger in particular, having received due praise from the mainstream media.
To wrap up, let’s take a look at the penalties, compared to regular season levels:
Player Pos PIM
Mike Brown R -12
Scott Niedermayer D -5
George Parros R -4
Drew Miller L -4
Ryan Carter* C -3
Bobby Ryan R -3
Todd Marchant C -3
Erik Christensen C -2
Francois Beauchemin D -2
Teemu Selanne R -1
Andrew Ebbett C -1
Chris Pronger D +0
Corey Perry R +0
Sheldon Brookbank D +2
Petteri Nokelainen* C +3
Ryan Whitney D +4
James Wisniewski D +4
Ryan Getzlaf C +6
Rob Niedermayer C +9
*Played in 3 games – Stats prorated to 6 games’ performance
There was much discussion over Anaheim’s undisciplined play being a major cause of their nearly missing the playoffs. For the Sharks series, power play opportunities were essentially even, pointing towards a more disciplined approach as a team. In particular, Mike Brown (145 PIM in 48 games) cut his PIM rate down from 3 PIM per game to only 1 PIM per game. Chris Pronger, one of the regular season culprits, at least posted a rate no worse than he did during the 82 game campaign. Ryan Getzlaf’s +6 PIM is essentially due to his decision to fight Joe Thornton to kick off Game 6. Rob Niedermayer was the only player of note who did not help the Ducks’ cause, taking 9 more PIM than expected.
At the end of the day, the Sharks deserve to be judged harshly for their first round loss. The relatively poor play by Evgeni Nabokov offset a commendable effort by the San Jose defense to hold SOG down, while on offense, most of their skaters either threw low percentage shots on net or passed the buck to less skilled teammates.
That said, there is plenty of praise to go around for the Ducks. Jonas Hiller deserves credit for holding most Sharks –except Dan Boyle and Patrick Marleau– under their regular season shooting percentages. The top six forwards and top two defensive pairings bested their San Jose counterparts. Surprisingly, Ryan Carter proved to be the best Duck pound-for-pound in upping his game from regular season levels.
It is sad to say that Teemu Selanne has been one of the few Anaheim no shows so far in this postseason. Having watched him play for Helsinki’s Jokerit early in his career, I knew that he would be a sensation in the NHL, and he proved that intuition correct a long time ago. Now, time seems to have caught up with his skills to the level where he needs to be matched up with the right mix of situations and linemates to still be effective (Note, for instance, that 16 of his 27 regular season goals were on the power play). Lamentably, it reminds me of the underwhelming linemate options provided to the Great One in his Ranger years, including offensive legends such as Niklas Sundstrom, Mike Keane and Vladimir Vorobiev, if you know what I mean by offensive. There’s no point in having a fading legend in your lineup if you don’t prop him up with linemates possessing enough skills and hockey sense to take advantage of his remaining brilliance.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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