May 6, 2009
NHL Entry Draft
Later Round Selection Value

by Richard Pollock

In the NFL, draft picks are treated like they are gold. While the NHL does not treat draft picks precisely the same way, the value of draft picks certainly seems to have increased since the 2004/05 work stoppage. In examining the first round last week, we realized that there is a fairly good chance of drafting a productive NHL player at any spot, but just how important are later round draft picks? Some teams trade them freely, while others refuse to part with them to close deals. Maybe more importantly, how valuable are late round draft picks compared to other late round draft picks?

For the purposes of this article, we will consider draft picks from the fifth round through ninth round. These picks are generally considered “throw-ins” to any trade, but are they? Moreover, is there any real significant difference between a fifth round pick and a sixth round pick? What about a sixth round pick and a ninth round pick (or an undrafted free agent nowadays because the NHL got rid of the eighth and ninth rounds after 2004)?

Let’s take a look at the numbers of players drafted in these particular rounds who have played at least one game in the NHL. Due to the fact that players drafted from 2005 through 2008 are probably still developing into NHL talents, especially players drafted so late, we are going to examine the years 1994 through 2004.

Here is the list of players drafted in the fifth through ninth rounds of the Entry Draft, who’ve played at least one game in the NHL:

	  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002

5th round   7	 9	5     7	   13	  7    12    11	    7
6th round   6	 8	7     8	   13	  9	6    11	   10
7th round   6	 6	8     6	    8	  8	9    10	   10
8th round   2	 6	9     6	    7	 10	8     9	   10
9th round  13	 7	7     8	    9	  5	9     6	    4

	       2003    2004

5th round	10	8
6th round	 7	7
7th round	 8	8
8th round	 6	5
9th round	 8	6

Now, here are the totals from the fifth round through ninth round for the years of 1994 to 2004:

	      Totals

5th round	96
6th round	92
7th round	79
8th round	78
9th round	82

Looking at the totals, it becomes apparent that there are some surprising numbers included in this data; especially the fact that the last round of the draft (except in 1994 when the draft extended past nine rounds) has produced more players who’ve played at least one game in the NHL than rounds seven or eight.

While the number of players who have played a game in the NHL is an interesting indicator of late draft success, we will now look to evaluate the production of these said players more closely. Specifically, we will calculate the numbers of games played by each round in each draft year, so as to attempt to better account for goalies and defensemen who have been drafted in these slots. Additionally, we will consider the number of points accumulated by each round.

Games Played

	   1994	 1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002

5th round  1251	 1911	 358	1616	2084	 560	1412	1218	 479
6th round  3313	 1662	1649	2015	3373	 285	 780	1923	 780
7th round  1802	 2364	2830	1592	 620	1754	1297	1287	 401
8th round    53	  690	2082	1193	 723	1866	 322	1311	1208
9th round  3350	  691	1550	1507	1290	 412	 241	 299	 254

	        2003	2004

5th round	889	354
6th round	466	327
7th round	602	320
8th round	619	85
9th round	452	484

Interestingly enough, on only two occasions the fifth round picks from a particular draft class (2000 and 2003) play more NHL games than all of the later rounds. In each of the other nine seasons, players drafted in later rounds, whether it be the ninth round or higher, have played more games than the fifth round players. In fact, on two occasions (1994 and 2004), the ninth round selections have played more games than the fifth round selections. Now let’s take a look at the total games played numbers for rounds five through nine from 1994-2004:

	        Totals

5th round	12092
6th round	16573
7th round	14869
8th round	10152
9th round	10530

By looking at the numbers, it becomes apparent that there is no discernible advantage, games-played wise, by selecting in the fifth round as compared to the seventh round. Additionally, there is only a 1562 games played difference between the fifth round and the ninth round over an eleven year period. That works out to an extra 142 games per draft year—not exactly a significant amount.

While there does not appear to be any significant advantage between drafting in the fifth round as opposed to the sixth or seventh round in terms of games played, let’s see if that trend continues in terms of points produced:

Points

	  1994	 1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002

5th round  270	 478	 42	695	 648	  86	366	344	131
6th round 1643	 472	490	822	1626	  25	 57	744	218
7th round  306	 546	811	516	 258	1051	451	380	 45
8th round   13	 253	765	318	 328	 374	 82	285	442
9th round  859	 163	458	441	  75	 106	 43	 41	 24

	        2003    2004

5th round	316	130
6th round	 97	 45
7th round	240	160
8th round	194	  2
9th round	 61	221

Now let’s take a look at the total points numbers for rounds five through nine from 1994-2004:

	       Totals

5th round	3506
6th round	6239
7th round	4764
8th round	3056
9th round	2492

What the numbers indicate is that you can clearly get a productive player later on in the NHL Draft, or now through signing undrafted free agents. In fact, the difference between the fifth and eighth round is so insignificant that teams can probably value these selections as being on a fairly even playing field. Even more so, with the Draft being only seven rounds, teams can probably now replace their late draft picks fairly adequately by signing undrafted free agents.

Let’s look at an example of a trade made just this past season. Prior to last season’s trade deadline, the New York Islanders traded Chris Simon to Minnesota for a fifth round draft pick. At the time, some, including me, wondered why a team would trade a fifth round pick for a “fighter” on a team that already had (and still has) Derek Boogaard and a number of other overly physical players. Clearly, Wild GM Doug Risebrough was looking to add some size and depth on the wings, but some wondered if that was worth the cost? Well, considering the insignificant difference between the average production of fifth round picks and undrafted free agents (after the seventh round), it looks like the value of gaining some veteran presence on the wing and added depth for a playoff push, for a fairly easily replaceable cost, can certainly be justified (at least in theory because Chris Simon’s addition did not help much).

So, as a fan, if your team is looking to take that “next step” and they don’t make an “impact deal” because of a late round draft pick you probably have reason to be fed up.