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The Columbus Blue Jackets have one of the worst records in the NHL. In Part 1 of this series, we looked beyond that record and into some of the underlying numbers; what we found was that the Jackets are both outchancing and outshooting their opposition, but that their opponents have been far more likely to score on any given shot or scoring chance. In Part 2, we looked at the reasons for this percentage imbalance.
Beyond the percentages, however, Columbus still isn't a very good team. They are the sort of club that can make the playoffs if everything goes right, and can find themselves at the very bottom of the league basement if everything goes wrong (as it has this season, from suspension to injuries to performance). That is not, needless to say, where they want to be.
In this post, we'll look through the forwards and the defense, and try to identify which players are getting the job done, and which players are not. To do that, we are going to consider some advanced statistics:
Fenwick: a plus-minus for shots and missed shots when a player is on the ice, and a number that typically matches up very well with scoring chances. The data we're using comes from five-on-five situations only, meaning that players won't get a boost from power play minutes or from time on the penalty kill. We'll express it in terms of percentages, with the number indicating how often a player has been on the ice for a positive event (for example, Rick Nash's Fenwick percentage of 50.9% means he's been on the ice for just a few more shots and missed shots for than he has against).
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