May 13, 2009
NHL Entry Draft
Selecting A Goaltender

by Richard Pollock

While the playoff battles continue, I will continue to focus my weekly contribution to Puck Prospectus on the upcoming draft at the end of June. For the past couple weeks, I have centered my attention on the value of draft picks. More specifically, the value of first round picks and later round draft picks. During my work on these articles, I began to wonder just how valuable drafting a goaltender high in the draft can be? It seemed like for every Marc-Andre Fleury listed at the top of a draft class, I’d see a Pekka Rinne drafted in the last round.

To be fair, analyzing goaltenders has always been considered by many to be a very, very tricky task. Many times a goalie’s success is attributable more so to the team in front of him than his own natural ability. However, other times the opposite is true and the goaltender masks a team’s deficiencies (see: Henrik Lundqvist in this year’s playoffs versus Washington).

Think about it; it is hard enough to try and identify why goaltenders are successful at the NHL level, never mind determining how an 18 year old netminder playing in one of the many junior leagues will succeed five years down the road.

Do teams need to draft goaltenders high in the draft to ensure future success?

First, let’s list the “number one netminders” for each of the NHL’s thirty teams this season and in which round each goaltender was drafted (if they were drafted at all).

Western Conference

Northwest  Calgary      Vancouver	Edmonton	Colorado   Minnesota
Starter	   Kiprusoff    Luongo	        Roloson	        Budaj	   Backstrom
Drafted	   5th Round	1st Round	Undrafted	2nd Round  Undrafted

Pacific    Anaheim	Los Angeles 	San Jose	Dallas	   Phoenix 
Starter	   Hiller	Quick	        Nabokov	        Turco	   Bryzgalov
DraftedD   Undrafted	3rd Round	9th Round	5th Round  2nd Round

Central    Detroit	Chicago	        St. Louis	Columbus   Nashville
Starter	   Osgood	Khabibulin	C. Mason	S. Mason   Rinne
Drafted	   3rd Round	9th Round	5th Round	3rd Round  8th Round

Eastern Conference

Northeast  Montreal	Toronto	        Ottawa	        Buffalo	   Boston
Starter	   Price	Toskala	        Auld	        Miller	   Thomas
Drafted	   1st Round	4th Round	2nd Round	5th Round  9th Round

Atlantic   NY Rangers	NY Islanders	Philadelphia 	Pittsburgh New Jersey
Starter	   Lundqvist	DiPietro	Biron	        Fleury	   Brodeur
Drafted	   7th Round	1st Round	1st Round	1st Round  1st Round

Southeast  Carolina	Florida	        Tampa Bay	Washington Atlanta
Starter	   Ward	        Vokoun	        Smith	        Theodore   Lehtonen
Drafted	   1st Round	9th Round	5th Round	2nd Round  1st Round

These statistics certainly are a bit surprising. What stands out to me is the netminders that faced each other in the first round of the NHL playoffs. Of the sixteen goalies that started the NHL playoffs, seven of them were drafted in the fifth round and after. So, surely these players were not highly sought after because if they were, they would have been drafted amongst the top 120 selections of the NHL Entry Draft.

Let’s take a closer look at the breakdown of goaltenders starting by round:

Rounds	        Number of goaltenders drafted

1st round	8
2nd Round	4
3rd Round	3
4th Round	1
5th Round	5
6th Round	0
7th Round	1
8th Round	1
9th Round	4
Undrafted	3

Half the netminders who were considered their team’s starters in the NHL this season were drafted in rounds many consider to be a crapshoot. In fact, five goalies were drafted in the eighth and ninth rounds (rounds which do not even exist anymore). So, in effect, there are as many goalies starting in the NHL that were drafted in the first round, as there are goalies who (by today’s draft rules) wouldn’t have been drafted at all (a.k.a.—undrafted free agents).

Actually, three goalies who were not even drafted (Backstrom, Roloson and Hiller) had dramatic effects on their team’s play to close this past season. Backstrom was nominated for the Vezina Trophy, Dwayne Roloson played almost every game for the Oilers in the second half of the season and Jonas Hiller has continued his strong regular season play with tremendous playoff play. Before stating that all the starting goaltenders drafted high and low are essentially of equal quality, we still have to analyze the actual netminding statistics.

To best evaluate the above numbers, let’s divide the goaltending statistics from the first, second and third rounds (fifteen netminders) versus those drafted in the fourth round or later (fifteen netminders).

	     Wins   Losses   W/L Ratio   Save Percentage   G.A.A.   Shutouts
1st-3rd 
Round Picks  2367   1752     1.35	 .910	           2.46	    344

4th or later 
Round Picks  2175   1598     1.36	 .912	           2.48	    306

These numbers are remarkably similar. While statistics attempting to evaluate goaltenders seem to be behind those utilized for analyzing forwards or defensemen, some people consider save percentage to be the best indicator of goaltender performance, and in that regard, the goaltenders drafted lower had the edge. In terms of win/loss ratio, the numbers were almost identical with the lower drafted netminders holding a slight .01 edge over those drafted prior to the fourth round. That advantage seems to be equalized by a slight edge in goals against average for the higher drafted netminders. Overall, the numbers above probably couldn’t be more similar if we tried. Leading me to believe that there are many goaltending bargains out there, you just have to look hard to find them. Considering the cost, or lack thereof, of making such a selection, I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams look for diamonds in the rough more often than drafting a goaltender with a first round selection.

Next time your team is considering drafting a goaltender in the first round, maybe they should instead try to sign Swedish free agent netminder Jonas Gustavsson.