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2013 NHL Entry Draft - Top draft prospects list and analysis

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May 21, 2009
Behind The Net
Big Minute Men

by Gabriel Desjardins

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Manny Malhotra’s not a guy you hear a lot about anymore. Never a big scorer, he was the victim of outsized expectations when he was taken seventh overall in the 1998 NHL Entry Draft by the New York Rangers after being the youngest player to make Team Canada’s ill-fated 1998 World Junior Team. But after almost five seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Malhotra has become a strong “two-way” center—exactly what it always seemed that he would be.

Malhotra’s come far enough that he even led the league in something in 2008-09: he took 58 percent of his team’s face-offs in the last two minutes of one-goal or tied games. The top ten:

Player	        Team	PCT
Malhotra	Cbj	57.8
M. Koivu	Min	55.5
Horcoff	        Edm	53.2
Crosby	        Pit	50.0
Brind'Amour	Car	49.4
Lecavalier	Tam	48.7
Spezza	        Ott	44.9
J. Carter	Phi	43.5
Stajan	        Tor	43.2
E. Staal	Car	43.1

There aren’t a huge number of surprises at the top of this list: Rod Brind’Amour has dominated in the face-off circle for years, and Oilers fans know Shawn Horcoff does a lot of heavy lifting. But Malhotra’s presence at the top of the list tells us something about how much his coach trusts him in close games: even though Malhotra took just 20 percent more draws than fellow Blue Jacket Antoine Vermette, he took three times as many face-offs as Vermette when the game was on the line. All in all, we’ve got a list of players who take toughest matchups for their teams.

Of course, with changes on the fly and some players leaving the ice immediately after a successful draw, face-offs don’t tell us the complete story. Using the NHL’s second-by-second ice-time data, we can determine how much time each player’s team spent in the last two minutes of tied or one-goal games when he was in the lineup, and what percentage of that time he was on the ice. The list of top centers who got the most ice time late in those games looks a little different:

Name	        Team	PCT
J. Carter	Phi	47.1
E. Staal	Car	44.0
M. Richards	Phi	43.8
Roy	        Buf	43.8
Backstrom	Was	43.7
Lecavalier	Tam	43.4
Malhotra	Cbj	43.2
Kesler	        Van	42.4
Malkin	        Pit	42.2
Gomez	        NYR	41.2

For the most part, this is again a list of centers who got the most ice time and took the most face-offs on their teams and in the league, along with Evgeni Malkin, who plays a lot, but doesn’t always line up at center. The main exception is Ryan Kesler, who was the #2 center for the Canucks behind Henrik Sedin, but the #1 choice when the game was on the line. As for their wingers:

Name	        Team	PCT
Smyth	        Col	51.8
Doan	        Phx	49.8
Booth	        Fla	48.3
St. Louis	Tam	48.2
Alfredsson	Ott	46.3
Pavelski	SJS	43.9
Hartnell	Phi	43.8
T. Ruutu	Car	43.6
Ovechkin	Was	43.6
Nash	        Cbj	43.5

Again, we’ve got a list of two-way wingers, including several offensive stars, who get the most ice time in the league in general. The biggest surprises are Tuomo Ruutu and David Booth, neither of whom is particularly known for his defensive play. This list is probably most instructive for defensemen, where it’s key to have a player who can both shut down the other team’s offense and start his own team’s offense:

Name	        Team	Pct
Niedermayer	Ana	64.6
Bouwmeester	Fla	63.1
Lidstrom	Det	61.3
Chara	        Bos	58.1
Commodore	Cbj	57.6
Pronger	        Ana	57.1
Keith	        Chi	57.0
Rafalski	Det	54.4
Enstrom	        Atl	54.4
Jackman	        Stl	53.2

Want a good reason not to give the Norris Trophy to Mike Green this season? Fellow nominees Zdeno Chara and Nick Lidstrom are consistently at the top of this list, while Green was 37th this year, and second on his own team behind Tom Poti. It’s the same story with the Hawks’ Brian Campbell, who logged a lot of ice time during the rest of the game but lost out to Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook when the other team had its top line on the ice. On the other hand, both Chara and Lidstrom log as much ice time as any defenseman in the league in all situations and according to my calculations, they’ve consistently faced the toughest quality of competition of any player on their teams.

In fact, this list matches up extremely well with the list of who faces the toughest competition overall, and with good reason: Lidstrom/Rafalski and Pronger/Niedermayer play shut-down defense and have tremendous offensive skill, making them keys to their teams’ playoff success. And Bouwmeester, despite playing in Florida, clearly has a reputation as a go-to guy in the toughest situations among NHL general managers, which will certainly lead to a huge free-agent payday in the offseason. Other defensive pairings who fell just outside the top ten were Ottawa’s Volchenkov/Phillips and the Islanders’ rare bright spot in Streit/Sutton, as well as Jan Hedja, who logged a lot of time with Commodore, and Chara’s partner Dennis Wideman.

Of course, no look at tough minutes would be complete without a list of the guys who got exactly zero all season:

Name	  Team
Godard	  Pit
Barch	  Dal
Stewart	  Fla
Janssen	  Stl
Shelley	  SJ
Cote	  Phi
Hordichuk Van
Boulton	  Atl
May	  Ana/Tor
Boogaard  Min
Belak	  Fla/Nsh
Pock	  NYI

The biggest surprise is Darcy Hordichuk, who dressed for all of Vancouver’s playoff games this year and scored a huge goal against Chicago in Game Four despite averaging just five minutes of ice time per night. These are exactly the guys we’d expect to see here; a bunch of slow-moving goons—George Parros and Donald Brashear actually got 11 and 21 seconds of late-and-close ice time, respectively—who are such liabilities that they never dress for the playoffs. Brian Burke can talk all he wants about the value of toughness and fighting to a team, but he made sure Brad May never saw the ice when the game was on the line.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Gabriel Desjardins is a contributor to Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey website Behindthenet.ca.

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