May 22, 2009
NHL Playoffs, Third Round
Detroit Red Wings vs. Chicago Blackhawks, Game 2

by Timo Seppa

If you’re firmly entrenched in the glass half full camp, you might say that Chicago’s losses to Detroit in Game 1 and Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals occurred in two closely contested games that either team could have ended up winning – That might portend a more competitive series going forward, especially with play moving to RBC Center for Game 3. Unfortunately, I don’t see it that way. There seemed to be an air of inevitability about the outcomes. The Red Wings appear to do everything just a little better than the Blackhawks, so it stands to reason that over the course of the dozens of opportunities in a fast-paced game or a long series, that the percentages will fall in the better team’s favor. To make matters worse for their division rivals, Detroit has completely stifled a high flying Chicago offense, who have had to rely on traffic in front of the net and a few Chris Osgood gaffs to scrounge up their meager 2 goals per game.

While the Chicago coaching staff would be unlikely to publically agree with that assessment, in a quiet moment, they might admit many of the same concerns. Perhaps Coach Joel Quenneville even has a Game 3 “To Do List” for the Blackhawks that looks something like this:

• Stop giving the puck away. Check.
• Reinforce with video of all three Red Wings goals in Game 2. Check.
• Keep Patrick Kane involved in the offense, particularly with “shots on goal”. Check.
• Do not revert to Game 1 blueprint. Check.
• Remind Patrick that “Goal in our net = BAD; Goal in their net = GOOD”. Repeat. Check.
• Get a competent performance out of Nikolai Khabibulin. Check.
• Show Nikolai a video from the 2003-4 playoffs. Remember that? Good. Check.
• Keep Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen and Dan Cleary from wrecking yet another game. Check.
• Make sure that Pavel Datsyuk and Marian Hossa don’t remember what “scoring a goal” is. Check.
• Whatever the question is, Samuel Pahlsson is not the answer. Check.

I’m poking fun here, but you get my drift. It’s nice to make a list and to check it twice, but some objectives are easier said than done. Let’s face it, when you’re playing an opponent like the highly talented, intelligent and battle-tested Red Wings, you had better be at the top of your game and be minimizing your mistakes to close to zero to have any shot of staying in the series, let alone winning the series. In addition to the issues alluded to above, Chicago better make sure no new ones crop up.

To get some insight into where some of the downfalls are occurring for Chicago and where some improvements could occur, let’s look at where some of the individual Blackhawks have overperformed or underperformed compared to regular season baselines (playoff stats compared to rate for 14 regular season games):

Playoff performance vs. expected levels – Goals, Assists, Points, Power Play Goals

Player 			Pos 	 G 	 A 	 P	 PPG 
Brent Seabrook		D	-0.4	+5.9	+5.6	+0.5
Adam Burish		R	+1.7	+1.4	+3.1	+0.0
Kris Versteeg		R	+0.1	+2.4	+2.5	+1.9
Dustin Byfuglien	R	+0.3	+2.1	+2.4	+0.5
Brian Campbell		D	+0.8	+0.3	+1.1	+1.3
Dave Bolland		C	+0.7	+0.2	+0.9	+0.7
Martin Havlat		R	+0.0	+0.7	+0.7	-0.9
Patrick Kane		R	+4.2	-3.6	+0.7	-0.1
Jonathan Toews	        C	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2	+2.0
Cameron Barker	        D	+1.8	-2.0	-0.2	-1.0
Ben Eager		L	-1.1	+0.3	-0.8	+0.0
Samuel Pahlsson      	C	-0.5	-0.4	-0.9	+0.8
Niklas Hjalmarsson	D	-0.7	-0.3	-1.0	+0.0
Matt Walker		D	-0.2	-0.8	-1.0	+0.0
Patrick Sharp		R	-1.0	-0.1	-1.1	-0.1
Duncan Keith		D	-1.5	-1.5	-3.0	-0.4
Troy Brouwer		R	-2.0	-1.2	-3.3	-0.8
Andrew Ladd		L	-0.6	-4.8	-5.4	+0.0

Brent Seabrook, Adam Burish, Kris Versteeg and man-mountain Dustin Byfuglien are the only ‘Hawks well in the black as far as exceeding established levels of point production, while Duncan Keith, Troy Brouwer and Andrew Ladd are those most in the red. Note that Versteeg (22 Goals, 31 Assists, 53 Points, +15 plus/minus, +7.9 offensive GVT, +11.1 total GVT) and captain Jonathan Toews (34 Goals, 35 Assists, 69 Points, +12 plus/minus, +9.6 offensive GVT, +12.6 total GVT) are treading water regarding goals scored by exceeding expectations on the power play while falling short at even strength. Major offensive cogs Martin Havlat (29 Goals, 48 Assists, 77 Points, +29 plus/minus, +11.1 offensive GVT, +16.7 total GVT) and Patrick Kane (25 Goals, 45 Assists, 70 Points, -2 plus/minus, +9.1 offensive GVT, +9.7 total GVT) are producing points at expected levels, but are among the Blackhawks falling well short of their regular season baselines in plus/minus:

Playoff performance vs. expected levels – Plus/minus rating

Player 			Pos 	 G 	 A 	 P	+/- 
Adam Burish		R	+1.7	+1.4	+3.1	+3.4
Brian Campbell		D	+0.8	+0.3	+1.1	+2.1
Cameron Barker	        D	+1.8	-2.0	-0.2	+0.2
Samuel Pahlsson	        C	-0.5	-0.4	-0.9	-0.3
Andrew Ladd		L	-0.6	-4.8	-5.4	-0.4
Ben Eager		L	-1.1	+0.3	-0.8	-1.2
Patrick Sharp		R	-1.0	-0.1	-1.1	-1.4
Jonathan Toews	        C	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2	-2.0
Dustin Byfuglien	R	+0.3	+2.1	+2.4	-2.3
Troy Brouwer		R	-2.0	-1.2	-3.3	-2.4
Dave Bolland		C	+0.7	+0.2	+0.9	-3.3
Niklas Hjalmarsson	D	-0.7	-0.3	-1.0	-3.7
Brent Seabrook		D	-0.4	+5.9	+5.6	-3.9
Duncan Keith		D	-1.5	-1.5	-3.0	-5.0
Martin Havlat		R	+0.0	+0.7	+0.7	-5.0
Matt Walker		D	-0.2	-0.8	-1.0	-5.5
Kris Versteeg		R	+0.1	+2.4	+2.5	-5.7
Patrick Kane		R	+4.2	-3.6	+0.7	-8.3

Patrick Kane’s team worst performance leaves a lot to be desired. While it’s pretty hard to have a -2 regular season rating on a team as good as Chicago to begin with, his team worst -8 rating during the playoffs (-5 versus Detroit) is flat out monstrous. Samuel Pahlsson (-2.7 offensive GVT, -4.4 total GVT) shows up high on this list –he’s “as advertised”– but let’s remember that he managed a -17 rating splitting time between the Ducks and Blackhawks. The next worst regular season plus/minus for player on the playoff roster is Cam Barker at -6.

Let’s close by checking out who’s been taking the shots for Chicago and with what level of success:

Playoff performance vs. expected levels – SOG, Shooting percentage

Player 			Pos 	 G 	 A 	 P	 SOG      S% 
Cameron Barker	        D	+1.8	-2.0	-0.2	 +6.2	 +5.2
Dave Bolland		C	+0.7	+0.2	+0.9	 +5.8	 -1.1
Brent Seabrook		D	-0.4	+5.9	+5.6	 +5.5	 -2.5
Brian Campbell		D	+0.8	+0.3	+1.1	 +4.6	 +2.2
Jonathan Toews	        C	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2	 +3.7	 -1.2
Adam Burish		R	+1.7	+1.4	+3.1	 +3.4	 +7.1
Dustin Byfuglien	R	+0.3	+2.1	+2.4	 -0.7	 +0.9
Ben Eager		L	-1.1	+0.3	-0.8	 -1.9	 -6.1
Niklas Hjalmarsson	D	-0.7	-0.3	-1.0	 -3.0	 -6.7
Kris Versteeg		R	+0.1	+2.4	+2.5	 -4.9	 +4.2
Patrick Sharp		R	-1.0	-0.1	-1.1	 -6.2	 -0.2
Troy Brouwer		R	-2.0	-1.2	-3.3	 -7.6	 -7.9
Matt Walker		D	-0.2	-0.8	-1.0	 -7.9	 -1.2
Andrew Ladd		L	-0.6	-4.8	-5.4	 -8.3	 +0.3
Martin Havlat		R	+0.0	+0.7	+0.7	 -9.0	 +3.1
Samuel Pahlsson	        C	-0.5	-0.4	-0.9	-10.0	 +3.1
Patrick Kane		R	+4.2	-3.6	+0.7	-11.1	+16.0
Duncan Keith		D	-1.5	-1.5	-3.0	-11.5	 -4.6

Defenseman Cam Barker’s (6 Goals, 34 Assists, 40 Points, -6 plus/minus, +6.0 offensive GVT, +5.9 total GVT) higher than expected goals have come due to both shooting more and more accurately than during the regular season. Of all the major offensive players for Chicago, only Jonathan Toews has kept up his SOG pace, with other key contributors either unwilling to shoot or unable to get the opportunities. Young defenseman Duncan Keith (8 Goals, 36 Assists, 44 Points, +33 plus/minus, +6.3 offensive GVT, +14.8 total GVT) may have run out of gas, shown by slumping levels across the board, including averaging one less SOG per game than expected. Yet, the real enigma, again, is Kane. The young winger has scored 8 Goals on a mere 31 SOG, for a staggering 25.8% clip. So why not shoot more? It may be the same issue we saw with Patrick Marleau–unnecessary deference to teammates– or an inability to get shots in the tighter games of the playoffs. Certainly, Detroit has made it difficult for him, allowing 0 SOG in Game 1 and 3 SOG in Game 2.

There’s a lot to digest for a Chicago coaching staff that has many great weapons at their disposal, yet faces a highly disciplined and talented Detroit squad that is going to make it one helluva hill to climb for them.

It’s as simple as making the adjustments and executing. Check.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.