January 27, 2013
Shots On Goal
Team Analysis, Week 2

by Ryan Schwepfinger

In this sprint of a fantasy hockey season, time is the one thing we do not have when it comes to making decisions for our teams. Making lineup decisions with the small sample-sized information at hand can be daunting, as most teams are just four or five games into their seasons, but nevertheless that is the problem fantasy owners are faced with.

To help form a more complete picture, I ranked the 30 teams based on both close-game Fenwick percentage and even strength save percentage. To qualify as a "good" matchup, a team had to be in the lower half of the league in both categories, and vice versa to qualify as a "poor" matchup. Coincidentally, eight teams ranked in the top 15 in both categories, and eight teams registered in the bottom 15.

Under this system, the best matchups are the teams that are having the most early season trouble holding onto the puck as well as stopping it—precisely what we want when deciding who to start and who to sit.

San Jose's hot start has turned heads around the league, and with three home games against teams that code green, it could continue. Although Anaheim and Nashville just barely come in green on the save percentage side, you are not sitting any of your Sharks.

Colorado is an early season surprise, ranking top seven in the league in both possession and save percentage, even with Saturday's debacle to San Jose included. I am slowly becoming more interested in players like Erik Johnson, Paul Stastny, and Semyon Varlamov.

Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh have gotten out to slower starts than were expected of them. This could be the week each club picks it up. I am not selling low on any Kings or Coyotes.

Minnesota, Boston, and Winnipeg have no red matchups. If you can stream Josh Harding, he may get the home start against Columbus on the 29th, with Chicago in town the next day. The same goes for Al Montoya at Florida on the 31st. Back-to-back games and their effect have been a theme of the early season, and exploiting them for fantasy purposes could prove useful as teams break down.

Four games for both Ottawa and Dallas, with the Stars getting an additional set of consecutive games. If you are desperate for goalie help, Richard Bachman may start one of the Phoenix games—I am not worried about the matchup—and maybe one earlier in the week.

Tampa Bay has the benefit of staying at home all week, great for getting the matchups Guy Boucher wants. Your fringe Bolts such as Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell, Sami Salo, and Cory Conacher are definitely in play this week.

Five teams have three games with no matchup color one way or the other. Of the five, I am intrigued by Toronto and Florida. Two of the four worst possession teams, they have a mild opportunity to get back on track. We need to see some improvement from these squads before their secondary players become fantasy relevant, and I am certainly looking for improved goaltending outings from these clubs.

The Flyers were looking like a poor offensive team even before the Scott Hartnell injury, but then Saturday's explosion in Florida came about. Chalk it up to small sample size—Philadelphia will be fine, but watch the line combinations closely. Playing with Claude Giroux is a huge advantage, and without Hartnell, the spots alongside Giroux may be wide open. Wayne Simmonds and Matt Read have been the recent beneficiaries.

St. Louis and Calgary rank low together based on their two-game weeks, but these are two teams headed in different directions. St. Louis has continued their possession domination from last season, and has a bit more offensive skill with Vladimir Tarasenko and a healthy David Perron in the mix. Calgary, meanwhile, has been receiving suspect goaltending, but might get a boost from the debuts of Jiri Hudler and Roman Cervenka. Both players certainly looked good against Edmonton on Saturday.

Washington's early season struggles have created some buy-low opportunities. One name I am intrigued by is John Carlson. While Carlson is not getting top power play time, I cannot trust Mike Green will stay healthy all season, and Carlson's PDO suggests he has been very unlucky thus far despite superb possession numbers. A top defenseman playing big minutes is valuable, especially if your league counts hits and blocks. While you probably cannot get Alex Ovechkin too cheaply, he also has very strong possession numbers despite his slow start.

Detroit barely cracks the top 15 in both possession and save percentage, but this is a club that we tend to expect greatness from. Their problems on the blue line are real, with injuries decimating the already fringe replacements for Nicklas Lidstrom. This team has to hope prospects Brendan Smith, Brian Lashoff, and Jakub Kindl are ready. If any one of them emerges, be ready to pounce, as the forward corps and goaltending still indicate this team can be successful. Lashoff drew the intriguing top unit assignment alongside Niklas Kronwall on Friday against Minnesota.

Carolina has been the most surprising team of the early season for me. We knew that Alexander Semin and Jordan Staal would help them improve, but they have jumped to the second-strongest possession side in the league thus far. Further making them intriguing is their sixth-worst five-on-five shooting percentage, which should improve and make them even stronger offensively. The question is, is Justin Faulk's injury serious enough to hurt them on the defensive end?

Edmonton is a team that, right now, is entirely based on the power play. In four games, the team has four goals at even strength and six on the power play. That is great for fantasy production, but it begs the question of sustainability. Unlike Carolina, Edmonton's possession numbers are not strong enough to suggest massive potential at five-on-five despite a low shooting percentage. There is no doubt that Edmonton is a dynamic offensive team, but if you can get someone to overpay for one of their young stars in a non-keeper league, I would strongly consider it.