February 3, 2013
Shots On Goal
The Rundown, Week 3

by Ryan Schwepfinger

It is never easy in fantasy hockey, as every breakout performance is seemingly nullified by a devastating injury or goaltending controversy. Fear not, owners—we are here to help.

This week, the matchup formula was modified to help reflect the growing sample size of special teams. Teams were ranked in close-game Fenwick percentage and goals against per game. Teams that ranked in the top 10 in each category (highest Fenwick percentage and lowest goals against per game) were graded as a "red" matchup. To further help differentiate, a second "lighter red" tier was created for a team that ranked in the top 15 in each category. The same process at the other end of the spectrum was used to create the green and light green matchups.

Here are the results, with the "second tier" of each category in parentheses:

Unfavorable matchups: St. Louis, Ottawa, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Boston (San Jose, Vancouver, Edmonton)

Favorable matchups: Florida, Columbus, Washington, Buffalo (Toronto, New York Islanders, Anaheim)

As one last bonus, I wanted to take a look at what teams were conducive to fantasy production independent of schedule. Using close-game Fenwick and goals for per game, I ranked teams using the same top-10/top-15 tier system to see what teams and systems are best suited for overall fantasy production:

Green plays: St. Louis, Montreal, Ottawa (Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Boston, Calgary, San Jose)

Red plays: Nashville, Columbus, Washington, Florida, Minnesota (Colorado, Dallas, New Jersey)

Now to the tables. Teams that are best for fantasy production (regardless of their schedule) are color-coded in the first column, while the green and red matchups are noted in the schedule grid:

The Blues get my nod for the best team in the NHL, so I'd rush to add anyone on their top three lines, as they balance them so effectively under their dominant possession system. Andy McDonald and Alex Steen, in particular, are unowned in most leagues, even though they are the top two Blues forwards in power play time.

The perception is that Ottawa has been solely fueled by Craig Anderson's stellar goaltending but their possession numbers have indicated elite play as well. Anderson is a tricky player to figure but he may very well be this year's breakout goaltender. You likely acquired him as your number two, so I would hold for now and continue to ride the wave as long as the Sens possess the puck so strongly—although I'd certainly listen to any overeager trade proposals.

Continuing with the Senators: while it remains to be seen how Jason Spezza's injury will affect Ottawa's overall play, I would take a look at Marc Methot, as he has been playing alongside Erik Karlsson at even strength. His plus/minus stands to benefit alongside the Norris winner, along with the occasional assist, and he will chip in if your league counts hits and blocked shots.

All three of the consensus top goaltenders entering the season (Lundqvist, Rinne, and Quick) have struggled early, but Quick is the one I like most for a bounceback. Los Angeles' possession numbers have continued strong from last year, and the Rangers' and Predators' were never too high to begin with. The Kings have been struggling offensively, with the fourth-worst power play in the league thus far, and a 19th ranked even strength shooting percentage despite being third in possession. If you can buy low on Quick, I like him the most to post elite numbers of the "Big Three."

Injuries in Philadelphia have created opportunities. Matt Read was stellar Saturday against Carolina, notching two assists, but it was Tye McGinn who drew the majority of shifts alongside Giroux and Briere. These are two interesting names moving forward depending on what happens with Wayne Simmonds' concussion.

San Jose has been an average possession team despite a largely home schedule (six of their first eight). They have been winning on the strength of their power play: second-most opportunities, tops in goals. Logan Couture and Ryane Clowe have been the only truly dominant Sharks forwards at even strength; if you can sell any of your other Sharks for well over market value, I would consider it. Obviously, Patrick Marleau's value will never be higher. Once they go on the road, the matchups for their top lines will get tougher, and production might decline.

Mike Kostka, for fantasy purposes, has been the equivalent of Ryan Suter. Crazy? Let me explain. Among defensemen playing as many minutes as Kostka at even strength, only two others have a negative Relative Corsi despite a offensive zone start rating over 50% (as Kostka does): Ryan Suter and Marc Staal. While Staal receives no power play time, Suter is in a similar offensive role as the Maple Leaf, and the numbers do not lie: each has four assists, zero goals, and a minus-six rating. Kostka even has three power play points compared to Suter's two. While interesting, these facts speak more to Suter's struggles; in addition, the Jake Gardiner situation confounds Kostka's role moving forward. I would pass on the Maple Leaf unless you are absolutely desperate for power play production, or can afford the plus/minus hit.

Tampa Bay is tops in the league in goals for per game, but third worst in possession. They are tied with San Jose for tops in the league in power play goals (13) despite receiving eight less opportunities (44 to 36). Not coincidentally, they too have played six of their first eight at home. A selling opportunity also exists here, but given the offensive talent, I would again only consider if you can receive well over market value.

Brenden Morrow is not getting any younger, but Dallas' response to Ray Whitney's injury was to slot him alongside Jamie Benn and Jaromir Jagr, and his physicality has always made him a low-cost asset for leagues counting hits and PIMs. However, keep tabs on what happens to Dallas' lines once Derek Roy returns.

Mikkel Boedker led all Phoenix forwards in power play time Saturday against Dallas, but he has negative Corsi numbers despite a high offensive zone start percentage. Steve Sullivan and Antoine Vermette have performed much better given the circumstances. Boedker's PDO indicates he has been much luckier than Sullivan and Vermette as well. Proceed with caution.

Zack Kassian shows no signs of slowing down, and he even chipped in his first assist of the season Friday against Chicago. With each passing game, the chances he sticks with the Sedins is greater, so your window to add him may be closing. Remember, in fantasy, we are only concerned with the final numbers, no matter how they may come.

It is tough to recommend anyone from Nashville given their start, but Colin Wilson deserves some commendation. His Relative Corsi, tops on the squad, is 17.2 points higher than the next challenger, Roman Josi. His PDO suggests he has been horribly unlucky as well. With Patric Hornqvist out, his power play role is sure to expand.

Francois Beauchemin and Sheldon Souray each logged over four minutes of power play time on Saturday for a Ducks team that is off to a surprising start. Cam Fowler's injury makes them interesting, but Anaheim is middle-of-the-road in possession and not particularly strong defensively. Still, the power play production of this team makes them useful. Consider adding Souray if you need offense, and Beauchemin if you need hits and blocks.