February 10, 2013
Shots On Goal
The Rundown, Week 4

by Ryan Schwepfinger

We are three weeks into the fantasy hockey season, and with time rapidly ticking away, now is the time to take action for your team. Make the aggressive waiver move you have been considering, even if that means dropping a mid-tier player who just has not produced. Start shopping your players to see if you can find any owners who are overly panicking. Note that important distinction. We do not want to take fifty cents on the dollar in any transaction, but what we especially do not want to do is be afraid to make a move that could make us better.

The bottom line: never be content with your roster, especially the bottom few roster spots. Take calculated risks. You can always get better, and that is what we are here to help you do.

Our matchup data is starting to even out, as the system codes eight teams as good matchups and eight as bad, with exactly four and four in each of the two tiers.

This week, we are switching to a blue for "cold" and red for "hot" color system for ease-of-visualization purposes, with the top-10/top-15 system for determining tiers in place.

"Cold" matchups: Boston, Ottawa, San Jose, Pittsburgh (Montreal, New York Rangers, New Jersey, Vancouver). Avoid starting your players against these teams in "close call" lineup decisions.

"Hot" matchups: Columbus, Florida, Buffalo, Washington (Anaheim, Tampa Bay, Carolina, New York Islanders). These are teams who you want your players to line up against.

Although I tend to lead towards matchup rather than team system in any "close call" lineup decision, I also find it useful to use this methodology to determine what teams play the best systems for fantasy hockey: "Cold" systems: Nashville, Columbus, Minnesota, Colorado, Florida (Dallas, Edmonton, Washington). These teams are currently the worst for fantasy production given their possession and goal-scoring acumen. "Hot" systems: St. Louis, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Montreal (Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, New Jersey). These teams, especially the first tier, are conducive to fantasy success.

Now to the tables:

Tampa started to predictably struggle a bit when they went on the road this week, but I love their odds to bounce back. Games against Washington and Florida are no concern, and a home date with Montreal, despite the system coding the Canadiens "cold" (to play against), is appealing. Montreal's home possession is 15.3% greater than their road metric, the largest difference in the league. You are never sitting Stamkos and St. Louis, and this is another week to play Malone, Conacher, Purcell, and the like.

Much fuss has been made about Andy Greene's recent tear, but to me, the bulk of his value lies in power play production. If you believe Greene will permanently unseat Marek Zidlicky, make the add, but I am more skeptical. Zidlicky still received nearly three more minutes of power play time than Greene yesterday vs. Pittsburgh, in a game where New Jersey spent 16:20 with the man advantage. Zidlicky also has the more favorable offensive zone start role at even strength: despite playing 5:25 less than Greene overall yesterday, Zidlicky directed 10 attempts at goal, compared to four for Greene. Season-long possession metrics as well as PDO reflect advantages for Zidlicky as well.

Speaking of the Devils, David Clarkson is a guy I am looking at as a unique and rare type of trade target: the buy high. If you can convince another owner to sell Clarkson at what he or she perceives is the peak of his value, I think you would be acquiring a player with sustainability. He has a phenomenal possession rate despite a slightly defensive zone start role, he has more shots on goal for the year than Ilya Kovalchuk, and he does not appear to be a product of exceptional luck, either this season or last season. This is a player who has turned the corner from his grinder days, and despite that, he will still chip in with penalty minutes and hits.

Usage note from Calgary: T.J. Brodie has ascended to the top power play unit alongside Dennis Wideman, and is firmly in the Flames' top four defenseman. Deep leaguers should consider him, as he is playing notable minutes, and always has profiled as an offensive defenseman. The Flames are sixth in the league in possession and have simply been held back by goaltending.

It was fun while it lasted for Zack Kassian, as he appears to have been abruptly demoted to playing alongside Higgins and Lapierre, while Alex Burrows moves next to the Sedins. While a big blow, it does not completely kill his value, as he will still get hits, PIMs, and some power play time. Plus, when Kesler and Booth come back, the Canucks could be a team with several useful scoring lines.

Jordan Schroeder is now a name of note, as he led Vancouver in power play time en route to scoring his first two career goals Saturday vs. Calgary. Take it with a grain of salt, as the game was not close, and again because Kesler and Booth are close to returning, but anybody playing top power play minutes on Vancouver is worth monitoring.

The curious case of Shea Weber: despite the Predators going 4-0-1 in their last five, Weber is still stuck at just one assist on the season. Nashville is the exact type of team that we do not want for fantasy production: bad territorially, reliant on elite goaltending and defense, and not particularly strong on the power play. The biggest red flag: Nashville actually has the sixth-highest even strength shooting percentage in the league at 9.2%. Given that, it is important to note that Weber's on-ice shooting percentage in such situations is just 5.4%. It's a bit of bad luck for Weber. However, if a rebound comes, it might not be such a strong one given the Nashville system—they just do not get enough shots relative to the opposition.

The problem with the Oilers is that their top forwards should be buy-low candidates given the team's low shooting percentage and mid-tier possession, but the name values on these guys have been so inflated that you might not get any real value. I recommended selling high on the Oilers a few weeks ago, which probably turned a profit if you took advantage, but a great example of the changing nature of fantasy is that you can now make a case for some of them as buy lows. The names to keep in mind are Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, and Eberle, who are in a class of their own possession-wise. These three have on-ice shooting percentages well below the possession-deficient likes of Gagner, Yakupov, and Hemsky, illustrating the gap between the trios.

While receiving no power play time, and sheltered minutes, Brandon Saad is frequently playing alongside Toews and Hossa at even strength. Keep in mind that Chicago has opened with nine of their first 11 on the road. With all three games at home this week, that top Hawks unit should see more time and space against weaker competition.

Keeping in mind that same principle, I am unsure what to make of Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp, who surprisingly enough have been subpar possession-wise at even strength despite great counting stats. Most of the top Hawks forwards have high PDOs despite average possession, as they have been the beneficiaries of high shooting percentages. Toews and Hossa are strong possession players, so I am less concerned about them, but keep an eye on Kane especially, who has an on-ice shooting percentage of 18.6% to go with his Relative Corsi of -23.1, second worst on the team. This is a sell-high candidate for me.

Minnesota has been a bit of a bust, but with all of the talent on this team, combined with their third-worst even strength shooting percentage, their true ability probably lies higher than where they are now, but possession issues will keep them from living up to the offseason hype. The situation is a bit like the Oilers here, with Parise and Koivu driving possession at a tier far above the second-line characters such as Setoguchi and Heatley. Charlie Coyle is a name that caught my eye, as his recent call-up has landed him even strength duty alongside Parise and Koivu, as well as top power play time.

It is important to note that Minnesota, like Edmonton, graded as "cold" systematically for fantasy because of their lack of possession and low shooting percentages. However, the production of the few elite players on both of these rosters (combined with the luck factor) is so far above their peers that they are immune to that recommendation. Everything has context.