March 17, 2013
Shots On Goal
The Rundown, Week 9

by Ryan Schwepfinger

Sometimes, the simplest plan is the smartest one. That holds true in fantasy hockey, where often, there is no better strategy than to simply pay attention to what is going on. Awareness of the teams and players can often make decisions quite easy.

For example, if a starting goalie on a good team gets hurt for the season, it is intuitive to add the backup. If a top prospect has a favorable role change to top line usage, we also become more interested in that player, and so on.

A similar concept that savvy managers can use to get an even bigger jump on their competition revolves around the trade deadline. Taking a look at who is a buyer and who is a seller can pay dividends if a manager makes an acquisition before a player is traded into a more favorable situation, or vice versa.

Like any transaction, there is an inherent amount of risk involved, but some players' values have the potential to increase or decrease enormously depending on what happens between now and April 3.

Thanks to the bonus point in overtime games, determining who is a seller is something that is not easy to do. There are only three teams in the league currently more than six points out of a playoff spot, for example—and none of those teams are in the Western Conference. Any small hot streak between now and the deadline could propel a team from the cellar to within striking distance, so keep that in mind moving forward.

With that being said, I have highlighted some bigger name players who might go by the deadline, and how that affects their fantasy values. But first, this week's matchup data:

Hot matchups: Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Edmonton, Washington, Colorado (Toronto, New York Islanders, Winnipeg, Dallas).

Cold matchups: Chicago, Boston, New York Rangers, Montreal (Los Angeles, New Jersey, Vancouver, Detroit, San Jose).

Hot offenses: Los Angeles, Chicago, St. Louis, Boston, Montreal, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Vancouver, Calgary, Philadelphia).

Cold offenses: Columbus, Buffalo, Edmonton, Nashville, Minnesota (Colorado, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Phoenix, Dallas).

Brenden Morrow, F, DAL: It is unlikely you were rostering Morrow for anything but his physical prowess, and surely any team that acquires him would have similar intentions. However, it is worth noting that despite the injuries to Dallas' top six all season long, Morrow still only has eleven points, with just four in the past 30 days. He might be billed as a "big" deadline acquisition, but I would not bank on much fantasy production, as he will not receive a top-level offensive role wherever he goes.

Jarome Iginla, F, CGY: This is the biggest name likely to be moved, should the Flames and Iginla decide what everyone already knows—trading him and starting a rebuild is best for this franchise. His role will not stand to increase anywhere else, but his plus/minus certainly would. Iginla has been a victim of poor percentages all season long, so he stands to rebound a tad anyway. Depending on the price, I would target Iginla if he goes somewhere or not—if he is traded, it could be a pleasant plus/minus bonus.

Jay Bouwmeester, D, CGY: Another Flame that probably should be moved for the betterment of the franchise. Bouwmeester is not worth his cap hit, but he is a useful player. His fantasy value is entirely dependent on where he might go. If a team picks him up to use on the power play, he becomes completely viable, particularly as a complete, two-way defenseman, should your league count hits and blocks.  

Mike Ribeiro, F, WSH: The Capitals are likely sellers, and Ribeiro's name makes the most sense, as he has been absolutely electric on the power play. Ribeiro is the anti-Iginla in some ways: shooting 27.8%, he only stands to regress, especially considering Washington currently has the third-ranked power play. There is no real room for Ribeiro's personal production to go but down. Like Iginla, he might see a plus/minus benefit from a trade, but he appears to have maxed out his production in Washington.  

Paul Stastny, F, COL: Stastny has this year and next remaining on his contract, but trade rumors have abounded despite the length and the gaudy $6.6 million cap hit. Stastny is a particularly interesting trade target for fantasy: a career 0.86 point-per-game player, he has been used in a defensive role this season, seeing the other teams' top lines and frequently starting in the defensive zone. His usage is a far cry from the usage he received en route to three 70-point seasons. If he goes anywhere, it would likely be a major offensive upgrade, not just teammate-wise, but also in usage. He stands to improve in a huge way should he be traded.

Brian Campbell, D, FLA: Dale Tallon recently said he would not blow up his team and make any trades, and it would be mighty difficult for anyone to take on this contract, but if Campbell does move, he is one of my favorite fantasy hockey targets. His fantasy hockey stat line, for a defenseman, reads as elite: six goals, 11 assists, 10 power play points, a huge amount of ice time, and even 41 blocks if your league counts those—until you get to the plus/minus (-20). That is a category killer and makes Campbell virtually unownable unless you have been punting plus/minus to begin with. If he goes to a contender, that flaw goes away. Monitor this situation closely and be ready to pounce ahead of time.

Ladislav Smid, D, EDM: If your fantasy hockey league counts hits and blocked shots, you likely know about Smid and his ability to dominate in those categories. Despite playing for Edmonton, Smid has not been as much of a plus/minus killer as you might expect. The problem with Smid is this: inherently, to accumulate hits and blocked shots, the other team has to have the puck. Edmonton frequently does not have the puck, allowing Smid to do what he does best for your fantasy team. Should he go to a contender, it stands to reason that he would be playing for a higher-level possession team, hindering that ability. Proceed with caution.

Ryan Whitney, D, EDM: Whitney is a cheap acquisition that might help you with power play points. Filling out a fantasy roster with viable blueliners can be difficult, so do not overlook Whitney. The power play is his specialty, and wherever he goes, it will likely be a more favorable situation than Edmonton for him, where he seems to have fallen out of favor behind Justin Schultz. Like the majority of the players on this list, a trade would surely help his plus/minus as well.

Corey Perry, F, ANA: Everyone's favorite trade deadline target. It remains to be seen what Anaheim will do given their unenviable position, similar to what Dallas went through with Brad Richards a few years ago—get something for your superstar player, or continue a playoff surge knowing that you might lose him for nothing? If Anaheim decides to think long term, Perry's value surely will rise, as likely trade suitors are the big market clubs, stocked with talent, who believe they can resign him. Philadelphia makes the most sense to me for a number of reasons, but I cannot see Anaheim selling him without a lofty return that would enable the Ducks to still compete now—a price that no team would pay when they could alternatively make a run at him in the offseason.