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Maxime Talbot – Where did the heck did he come from?
If hockey only looked at performance in the Finals for determining their playoff MVP–as baseball, football and basketball do–we’d be talking about Maxime Talbot as the “Conn Smythe Trophy” winner instead of Evgeni Malkin. While hockey’s way is more equitable–taking into account a larger sample set of performances–there is something strangely appealing about picking a Most Valuable Player based on the final game or final series, as the other sports do.
The 22-year-old Malkin (14 Goals, 22 Assists, 36 Points, +3 plus/minus, 13.5% shooting percentage, 51 PIM, 41 hits, 20:57 TOI) and the 21 year old Sidney Crosby (15 Goals, 16 Assists, 31 Points, +9 plus/minus, 19.0% shooting percentage, 14 PIM, 20 hits, 20:48 TOI) both had awesome postseasons, at least through three rounds. The young Canadian mostly disappeared against the Red Wings, while the young Russian remained good, but mortal. The Detroit series was largely carried by the role players–Maxime Talbot, Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy, Brooks Orpik and Rob Scuderi, to name a few–many of whom were along for the ride on the backs of Gino and Sid throughout most of the playoffs.
While there were times in the finals where 24-year-old Talbot gave up a chance to make a pass to an open teammate, his selfishness or confidence–call it what you will–was exactly what the doctor ordered for Game 7. Damned if he wasn’t going to shoot, especially on the 2-on-1 breakaway for the second goal. Fortunately, it was a helluva shot.
If the playoff MVP award were really determined by performance in the Finals, two year veteran of the Wilkes-Barre Penguins would have given the Hart Trophy finalist a run for his money. Talbot had more goals, a better plus/minus rating, a better shooting percentage and significantly less PIM, while Malkin had more assists, points and hits:
Evgeni Malkin and Maxime Talbot vs. Detroit – Total and per game production
G A P +/- S S% PIM Hits
Evgeni Malkin 2 6 8 0 24 8.3% 51 41
Maxime Talbot 4 2 6 4 14 28.6% 19 31
G A P +/- S S% PIM Hits
Evgeni Malkin 0.29 0.86 1.14 0.00 3.4 8.3% 2.1 1.7
Maxime Talbot 0.57 0.29 0.86 0.57 2.0 28.6% 0.8 1.3
Did Talbot really come from nowhere? He certainly was accustomed to the big moment on “the biggest stage” already, having scored the game tying goal in the waning moments of Game 5 of last year’s finals. Does that make him “clutch” or lucky? Let’s delve into Max Talbot’s production over the past two regular seasons and postseasons to get a better idea:
Maxime Talbot – Total production, Regular season and postseason
G A P +/- S S%
Regular season 2007-8 12 14 26 8 80 15.0%
Postseason 2007-8 3 6 9 4 16 18.8%
Regular season 2008-9 12 10 22 -9 102 11.8%
Postseason 2008-9 8 5 13 8 37 21.6%
Rounds 1-3 4 3 7 4 23 17.4%
Round 4 4 2 6 4 14 28.6%
Maxime Talbot – Per game production, Regular season and postseason
G A P +/- S S%
Regular season 2007-8 0.19 0.22 0.41 0.13 1.3 15.0%
Postseason 2007-8 0.18 0.35 0.53 0.24 0.9 18.8%
Regular season 2008-9 0.16 0.13 0.29 -0.12 1.3 11.8%
Postseason 2008-9 0.33 0.21 0.54 0.33 1.5 21.6%
Rounds 1-3 0.24 0.18 0.41 0.24 1.4 17.4%
Round 4 0.57 0.29 0.86 0.57 2.0 28.6%
Talbot had a down year in 2008-9, with a mere 0.29 points per game played, before rebounding to 0.54 P/GP this postseason, essentially identical with his 0.53 P/GP production during last year’s playoffs, and slightly higher than the 0.41 P/GP from the 2007-8 regular season. We can infer that Max is approximately a 0.40 P/GP player, who may indeed have extra stamina, focus or willpower to bring his game up a notch in the playoffs. Maxime Talbot is not the 0.86 P/GP of Round 4, but years from now, watching the highlights of the Finals, that may be the way we selectively remember him.
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Mike Babcock admitted that his team was exhausted. You–loyal reader–and I were not surprised, though, were we? Through the last two rounds, we tracked the high number of hits that the Red Wings were taking, surmising that the effect of these “body blows” would start to take a toll on Detroit over the course of the playoffs:
Detroit Red Wings – Hits and Hits taken, per game details
Opponent Result Hits Hits Taken Net Hits
CLB 4-1 W 37 26 +11
CLB 4-0 W 26 30 -4
CLB 4-1 W 30 38 -8
CLB 6-5 W 39 37 +2
ANA 3-2 W 36 24 +12
ANA 3-4 L 63 43 +20
ANA 1-2 L 29 23 +6
ANA 6-3 W 20 25 -5
ANA 4-1 W 35 18 +17
ANA 1-2 L 27 22 +5
ANA 4-3 W 23 22 +1
CHI 5-2 W 35 36 -1
CHI 3-2 W 37 37 +0
CHI 3-4 L 26 36 -10
CHI 6-1 W 24 28 -4
CHI 2-1 W 38 36 +2
PIT 3-1 W 43 39 +4
PIT 3-1 W 34 33 +1
PIT 2-4 L 17 36 -19
PIT 2-4 L 33 32 +1
PIT 5-0 W 42 35 +7
PIT 1-2 L 26 35 -9
PIT 1-2 L 35 44 -9
Total 755 735 +20
Through the first two series with Columbus and Anaheim, Detroit outhit their opponents in 8 out of 11 games, by 57 hits overall, taking over 30 hits only three times. Through the final two series with Chicago and Pittsburgh, Detroit was outhit by their opponents in 6 of 12 games (with one game a draw), by 37 hits overall, taking over 30 hits in all but one game. In Game 7, the Penguins delivered a postseason high of 44 hits against the Red Wings; the -9 net hits in Game 6 and -9 net hits in Game 7 were Detroit’s worst two game span of being outhit in the playoffs.
We also have studied the effect of %AB as an indicator. Going into Game 7, we predicted a likely Penguins victory if Pittsburgh blocked more than 25% of Detroit’s shots, as it would indicate a high Penguins’ intensity level and a high Red Wings’ fatigue level in the crucial game. Pittsburgh fared even better than they could have hoped:
Legend:
SOG: Shots On Goal
AB: Attempts Blocked
MS: Missed Shots
AOG: Attempts On Goal, SOG+AB+MS
%AB: Percentage of AOG blocked, AB/AOG
Detroit Red Wings – Percentage of attempts on goal blocked by opponents during the playoffs
Opponent SOG AB MS AOG %AB Score
CLB 34 16 8 58 28% 4-1 W
CLB 39 20 17 76 26% 4-0 W
CLB 26 8 9 43 19% 4-1 W
CLB 41 13 11 65 20% 6-5 W
ANA 37 15 15 67 22% 3-2 W
ANA 62 21 27 110 19% 3-4 L
ANA 46 16 15 77 21% 1-2 L
ANA 40 14 17 71 20% 6-3 W
ANA 38 8 19 65 12% 4-1 W
ANA 39 13 13 65 20% 1-2 L
ANA 40 16 18 74 22% 4-3 W
CHI 33 20 11 64 31% 5-2 W
CHI 38 20 17 75 27% 3-2 W
CHI 30 15 6 51 29% 3-4 L
CHI 33 6 11 50 12% 6-1 W
CHI 46 12 9 67 18% 2-1 W
PIT 30 14 18 62 23% 3-1 W
PIT 26 10 9 45 22% 3-1 W
PIT 28 18 10 56 32% 2-4 L
PIT 39 15 15 69 22% 2-4 L
PIT 29 12 10 51 24% 5-0 W
PIT 26 20 17 63 32% 1-2 L
PIT 24 20 17 61 33% 1-2 L
The Penguins exceeded all previous %AB levels, turning in a postseason high of 33% against the Red Wings with 20 of 60 attempts blocked; for the playoffs, the average %AB for Detroit’s wins was 21.6%, while the average %AB for Detroit’s losses was 26.0%.
As indicated by my intermission reports, %AB kept climbing throughout the game, showing that the Pens’ intensity and the Wings’ fatigue kept climbing throughout Game 7. The cumulative stats showed the %AB level rise from 15% to 24% to 33% at the end of each period; as impressive as those levels looked, they indicated even bigger changes in each period:
Detroit Red Wings – Percentage of attempts blocked per period and hits per period
Period AB AOG %AB Hits Hits Taken Net Hits
1st 2 13 15% 21 12 +9
2nd 6 21 29% 9 15 -6
3rd 12 26 46% 5 17 -12
We thought that the Motor City Machine might run out of gas, and it did. That said, the mighty Wings were still within a Niklas Kronwall shot off the crossbar of putting Game 7 into overtime.
Ali and Frazier went 1-1 at Madison Square Garden, before taking their rivalry to a deciding third bout. Why not these two heavyweights? If the rematch indeed takes place next June, we’ll see what effect body blows make on the contenders by the time the Finals roll around next year.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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