Puck Prospectus - The Battle Of The Best

September 1, 2009
The Battle Of The Best
Crosby vs. Ovechkin

by Robert Vollman and Andrew Rothstein

Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin are two names we hear and see all of the time, whether it be in the news, on the television, or on the radio. We know they’re talented individuals, both former first round picks and both very important players to their respective teams. They are among the best players in the NHL, but is either the best player in the game? Looking at the past couple of years, the strengths and weaknesses of these two standout individuals, VUKOTA and the Similarity Score Index, we can get a better idea of where both of these Eastern Conference skaters stand.

Sidney Crosby

In many situations, Sidney Crosby is not the ideal player to have on the ice. When protecting a slim lead, virtually any team is going to have better defensive player’s on-hand than Sidney Crosby, whose defensive stats are merely "good." He is used sparingly when playing short-handed, where his results are a little better than average. Though exceptionally strong offensively, there are easily a dozen NHL players more lethal on the power play, ten players who scored more goals at even-strength per 60 minutes, and another ten who set up more goals. So why is he considered by so many to be the best player in not only the game, but the world? Quite simply, his teams win.

It's difficult to say that any player is the best in the world. Some environments are best suited for one type of player, while other teams are built for another. Regardless of how a league, team or tournament is structured, Crosby has been the best. He won back-to-back CHL Player of the Year awards in the QMJHL, leading Rimouski to the 2005 Memorial Cup. In his only two International tournaments, he won a Gold and a Silver. He has thrived in Pittsburgh where he captained the team to consecutive Stanley Cup appearances, winning on his second trip. Thanks to him, it's fair to say that Pittsburgh is the only team anywhere that would have Malkin on the 2nd line. He also became the youngest player to ever win the Art Ross trophy by bagging 120 points in his sophomore season while still a teenager. That's the other key point, Crosby is doing this all at an age when most of the league's other best players were still trying to fight their way onto the first line or get their team into the playoffs.

Let's look at some numbers. Here's his GVT total and his VUKOTA projection for next season.

 Season   Team          GP  G   A   PTS  GVT
 2008-09  Pittsburgh    77  33  70  103  18.7
*2009-10  Pittsburgh    74  40  67  107  24.3 (league-best 1.45 PPG)

*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projection

To supplement the VUKOTA projection, I combed all of NHL's history for players whose statistics most closely matched Sidney Crosby's and looked at how they did the following season. I disregarded anyone who wasn't within 2 years of Crosby's age, and other than an injured Barry Pederson, I only found six players whose results were even remotely similar. Here they are, and how they did the following season.

Player         Season  GP  G  A PTS PIM
Denis Savard   1985-86 80 47 69 116 111
Peter Forsberg 1997-98 72 25 66  91  94
Denis Savard   1984-85 79 38 67 105  56
Bobby Smith    1982-83 77 24 53  77  81
Bobby Smith    1981-82 80 43 71 114  82
Ron Francis    1987-88 80 25 50  75  87
AVERAGE                78 34 63  97  85

From this, we can establish Crosby's upside potential being roughly 114-116 points, with the potential of sliding down to 75-77 points.

If Sidney Crosby is truly the best player in the world, we'll see him score 115 points this season, lead Pittsburgh to the Stanley Cup finals, and Team Canada to the Gold Medal game in Vancouver. This time next year, I think it's fair to say that the debate will be over one way or the other.

- Robert Vollman

Alexander Ovechkin

Ovechkin is considered one of the best players in the NHL today. Like Crosby, his defensive stats are good, but not great. If you’re looking to protect a lead in the final minutes of a game, Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom are better bets to provide stellar defense than the 6’2’’ left winger is. The first overall pick of 2004 also is rarely one of the go to players for killing penalties in the most important of situations. However, that's where most of Ovechkin's individual downfalls end. The Russian-native is dominant in power play situations, dominant in setting up goals, and is among the very best in even-strength scoring per 60 minutes.

As a rookie in 2005-2006, he not only led fellow first year players in goals, points, points per game and shots, but he finished third in the NHL in overall scoring and tied for third in the league in goals, which played a huge part in Ovechkin winning the Calder Memorial Trophy for rookie of the year. The 23-year-old right hander has won an array of awards over the past few years, including the Maurice “Rocket” Richard award and the Hart Memorial twice, as well as the Art Ross Trophy and the Lester B. Pearson for being the top player as voted on by the NHLPA. Though he has not taken the Capitals as far as Crosby has gone with the Penguins, he has been an important contributor in the postseason.

The following table shows the Washington standouts 2008-2009 GVT totals, along with his VUKOTA projection for next season.

 Season   Team          GP  G   A   PTS   GVT
 2008-09  Washington    79  56  54  110  25.6
*2009-10  Washington    82  57  61  118  27.6

*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projection

Using Rob's Similarity Score Index, that has now been updated for the 2009-2010 season to include Gabe’s data, we can look at Ovechkin’s top comparables up until this past year in order to see how his comparables did the following season.

Player         Season  GP  G  A PTS PIM
Michel Goulet  1986-87 75 49 47  96  61
Luc Robitaille 1991-92 80 44 63 107  95
Pavel Bure     1994-95 44 20 23  43  47
Barry Pederson 1984-85 22  4  8  12  10
Luc Robitaille 1989-90 80 52 49 101  38
Dale Hawerchuk 1987-88 80 44 77 121  59
Rick Martin    1975-76 80 49 37  86  67
Jaromir Jagr   1998-99 81 44 83 127  66
Paul Kariya    1998-99 82 39 62 101  40
Michel Goulet  1984-85 69 55 40  96  55
Pat LaFontaine 1991-92 57 46 47  93  98
Glenn Anderson 1984-85 80 42 39  81  69
Dale Hawerchuk 1988-89 75 41 55  96  28
Luc Robitaille 1992-93 84 63 62 125 100
Glenn Anderson 1983-84 80 54 45  99  65
Luc Robitaille 1988-89 78 46 52  98  65
Luc Robitaille 1990-91 75 45 46  91  68
Barry Pederson 1983-84 80 39 77 116  64
Glenn Anderson 1985-86 72 54 48 102  90
Pat LaFontaine 1990-91 75 41 44  85  42
Michel Goulet  1985-86 75 53 51 104  64 
Bryan Trottier 1981-82 80 50 79 129  88
AVERAGE(no Pederson)   75 47 52  99  65

While the Capital forward is one of the best players in the game, this list shows that he is not nearly as unique of a player as Sidney Crosby is, who only has six comparable players so far in his career. Ovechkin’s upside potential for next season is 125-129 points, while his downside potential is 81-85 points. Scoring 129 points in 2009-2010 would likely make the Moscow-native the winner of the Hart Memorial and Art Ross trophies and could propel Washington to a very high Eastern Conference playoff seed. If Ovechkin can lead Team Russia to a 2010 Vancouver Winter Games Gold medal, lead the Washington Capitals to a Stanley Cup victory and continue putting up the astonishing statistics he has put up in previous seasons, then I believe the debate will be put to rest. He will not only be considered better than Sidney Crosby, but he will be considered the best player in the game.

- Andrew Rothstein

Robert Vollman is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.