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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 250 (T-11th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 229 (22nd on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 293 (30th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 259 (29th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 81 (24th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 80 (T-28th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 43 (26th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 30 (29th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.80 (23rd on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.16 (29th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.36 (29th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 28.8 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 9.5 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 2.9 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 0.9 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.3 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Toronto GM Brian Burke entered the offseason with a very specific goal: to make the Leafs the kind of team other teams hate to play against. Yes, he pursued the Sedins, but his real efforts were concentrated on signing big, tough players who would punish the opposition physically. From one point of view, he succeeded in his plan. Toronto is now a team that will leave the opposition battered and bruised on many nights, or at least exhausted. However, on another level he failed miserably. Most teams are going to love playing the Leafs this year. Why? Well, most teams enjoy winning, and winning will be an all-too-frequent result for Toronto's opposition on any given night.
Key Additions:
By far the Leafs' biggest splash this offseason was the signing of Swedish goaltender Jonas Gustavsson, thought by many to be the best goaltender playing outside of the NHL. He brings competition to Vesa Toskala for the starting job, and should make an immediate impact on the ice.
Free agent defenseman Mike Komisarek was touted as a big deal, and he certainly provides the physical presense that the Leafs are looking for, but he's been a bit overhyped. He's a solid defenseman, but nothing more. Francois Beauchemin is similar in value to Komisarek, but hasn't gotten much recognition playing on the West Coast behind Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. He's another solid defender.
Rickard Wallin is back in North America and on most teams his addition would not be noteworthy. In Toronto's case, he's the closest thing to a scorer they added to the team this offseason.
Burke appears to believe that winger Colton Orr and defenseman Garnet Exelby are key additions as well, though they're not.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Alexei Ponikarovsky F 29 72.8 19.8 29.9 49.8 6.3 2.6 0.0 8.8
Jason Blake F 36 69.5 17.5 30.7 48.2 5.8 1.9 0.0 7.7
Mikhail Grabovski F 25 67.3 18.1 25.3 43.4 5.2 1.7 0.0 6.9
Niklas Hagman F 30 64.7 19.3 19.7 39.0 4.8 2.0 0.0 6.8
Matt Stajan F 26 71.5 16.2 29.2 45.5 4.5 2.2 0.0 6.7
Lee Stempniak F 26 68.8 14.6 25.4 40.0 3.7 1.8 -0.1 5.5
Nikolai Kulemin F 23 67.1 15.2 17.6 32.7 2.5 1.5 0.0 4.0
John Mitchell F 24 63.2 11.7 16.4 28.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.2
Christian Hanson F 23 29.9 5.9 7.2 13.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.6
Jiri Tlusty F 21 40.9 7.1 9.2 16.3 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.5
Jamal Mayers F 35 59.1 6.9 9.5 16.5 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.5
Tim Brent F 25 27.7 4.8 6.1 10.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2
Wayne Primeau F 33 38.7 3.9 7.0 10.9 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8
Ben Ondrus F 27 30.2 4.0 5.1 9.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5
Andre Deveaux F 25 35.0 3.7 5.1 8.8 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.3
Colton Orr F 27 56.3 1.1 1.8 2.9 -2.8 0.2 0.0 -2.5
Burke concentrated on building from the crease out. As such the back end of the team received a lot of attention, while the forward unit was largely ignored. Wallin was the only addition who should be able to provide any aid to this low-scoring group, though Burke seemed more excited by the additions of Colton Orr and Wayne Primeau. Both Orr and Primeau are known for their tough, physical play, but unfortunately for the Leafs, they've only combined to score exactly one goal in 106 games last year. Physical intimidation is wasted if you can't back it up with at least a minimal amount of skill.
Toronto does have a number of potential 20-goal scorers on their roster for this upcoming year. Alexei Ponikarovsky, Jason Blake, Mikhail Grabovski, Niklas Hagman, Lee Stempniak and Nikolai Kulemin could all reach that level, but only Blake, Ponikarovsky and Hagman have any real chance at 30 goals, and that chance is slim. The top line of Grabovski centering these first two wingers is decent and provides lots of speed, but they would be the second line on a good team.
That really is the problem with the forwards in the Maple Leaf lineup this year; they are many second- and third-line candidates, but no real first-liners. Ponikarovsky is a consistent 20-goal man, but his career high is 23 goals and he projects for only 20 this year. Blake is a good player, but he has scored only 40 goals in his two full seasons in Toronto. Hagman might be their best goal-getter, scoring 27 for Dallas two years ago and 22 in 65 games for the Leafs last year, but without a real playmaking center his output can only go so far. Jiri Tlusty is a good prospect but not a great one, and isn't ready to contribute much scoring at the NHL level. Stempniak and Kulemin are two more in a line of forwards who should put up decent numbers, maybe 15-20 goals each, but as it stands the Leafs have a pile of forwards you can expect to contribute between 30 and 50 points, and not much else.
The fourth line projects to be Primeau, Orr and Jamal Mayers. NHL teams are expected to have a checking or "energy" line as their fourth line, and this fits the bill on outward appearances, but Orr is an offensive liability (projecting an offensive GVT of -2.8) and his defensive value is basically zero. His limited ice time would be better served going to a youngster like Tim Brent or Jiri Tlusty, who actually project to contribute something to the team. Lack of defensive ability wouldn't be a problem, since if used as a penalty-killing unit only two fowards are needed, and Mayers and Primeau are competent there. Brent would be the better choice, since he is older and not as good of a prospect, allowing Tlusty more time to develop in the AHL. Don't expect this to happen though, since Orr fits in so well with the tough-guy image that Burke wants to project.
On the Draw:
Top-line centerman Grabovski is weak in the faceoff circle, winning only 44.5% of his draws in 2008-09, and Stajan and Mitchell are average. Mayers and Primeau are the best the Leafs have at winning faceoffs, and both project to play on the fourth line. Mayers and Stajan should take most of the draws on the penalty kill.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Tomas Kaberle D 31 60.0 5.9 25.3 31.2 3.8 3.1 0.1 7.0
Ian White D 25 68.7 6.8 18.3 25.1 2.9 3.6 0.0 6.5
Jeff Finger D 30 61.5 5.1 15.7 20.8 2.2 3.0 0.0 5.3
Mike Komisarek D 27 61.0 2.7 10.4 13.1 0.2 2.9 0.0 3.1
Mike Van Ryn D 30 39.8 2.8 9.6 12.4 1.1 1.8 0.0 2.9
Francois Beauchemin D 29 49.9 3.5 10.8 14.2 0.6 2.2 0.0 2.8
Luke Schenn D 20 62.8 3.1 11.8 14.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0
Jonas Frogren D 29 44.3 1.6 6.4 8.1 0.3 1.5 0.0 1.8
Phil Oreskovic D 22 31.8 2.4 6.3 8.7 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.8
Garnet Exelby D 28 53.6 1.0 5.1 6.1 -0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0
The defense corps is certainly Toronto's strength. They have six or seven solid-to-good defensemen to play every night. Barring injury, there is no real weak link in the unit. Tomas Kaberle remains the best defenseman on the club, and is by far their greatest offensive threat from the blueline, though Ian White could challenge for this title if he were given more power-play focus. The trade rumours surrounding Kaberle last season will likely persist this year.
Komisarek provides a physical presence and solid defense, but has been overrated. His projected defensive GVT of 2.9 in 61 games comes in behind White, Kaberle and Jeff Finger. He's a good defenseman, but no savior. Burke's fascination with big, tough players has led to overemphasizing the importance of players like Komisarek, who have their place but are not the be-all and end-all of NHL defense.
Beauchemin is another solid addition, one used to eating up a lot of minutes in all situations. His ice time will certainly decrease from his days in Anaheim, where he shared most of the minutes with Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, where they used what could be called a "Big Three" distribution of ice time for their top defencemen (similar to the Islanders in the early 2000s with Roman Hamrlik, Adrian Aucoin and Kenny Jonsson). You can expect about 22 minutes per game for Kaberle, White and Luke Schenn, 20 for Komisarek and Beauchemin, and 18 for Finger.
Schenn definitely feels the love from Burke. In Burke's abortive pursuit of the #1 overall pick, he refused to make Schenn part of any deal. He's a big defenseman who plays a physical style, and gets a lot of respect from management for that. He's not even 20 years old yet, and while he will never be a big scorer he has more than the minimum amount of offensive ability to play in the NHL. He should be a solid-to-good NHL defenseman for years to come, though it's unlikely he'll ever be more than that.
If size takes on too much importance behind the Leafs bench, Exelby might get into the lineup and take playing time away from better players. Hopefully management knows well enough to stick with White, who at 5-10 is very small by NHL standards for a defenseman. White projects to the team's best defensive skater (3.6 defensive GVT), and second-best defenseman overall (6.5 GVT) behind only Kaberle, We can only hope his skill and performance don't get lost in the forest of redwoods. Even without looking at Exelby, the concern is that White's ice time will be diminished in favour or Komisarek and/or Beauchemin, who do not project to be as valuable as the smaller man.
The problem is that Burke acquired Exelby, and Exelby is the type of player Burke coveted over the summer, with the intention of giving him some fairly regular playing time. Regardless of who he takes minutes away from, the team will be poorer for it. Exelby is projected to rack up a 0.0 GVT, with his negative offensive contribution cancelling out whatever defensive value he might have. He's been an NHL regular for five years, and has never averaged 20 minutes of ice time in a season, with his career average at 17:48 per game. That should tell you something about his overall value.
In fact, Exelby is the eight-best defenseman on the roster, at best. In addition to the top six mentioned above, Mike Van Ryn is clearly better, both offensively and defensively, and even he will have to fight for playing time. Another concern for White's playing time is his salary. Exelby's cap hit is $1.4 million, and Van Ryn's in $2.9 million. Will Toronto management rationalize that as a reason to play them ahead of White, who makes less than $1 million this year? It seems unlikely, given the significant minutes that White played last year, but the defense corps has been significantly changed and the team's second-best defenseman might finds himself being rotated in and out of the lineup. Hopefully, Burke's obsession with toughness doesn't cause Toronto to do something as misguided as that.
Goaltenders:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Jonas Gustavsson G 25 35.0 9.0 0.0 9.0
Joey MacDonald G 29 36.2 0.4 -0.2 0.2
Vesa Toskala G 32 37.4 -3.2 -0.9 -4.1
If the Leafs have found another Henrik Lundqvist in Gustavsson, their fans should be very, very happy. The team suffered through subpar and disjointed efforts from their goaltenders last year, and it's hard to imagine them not getting better results this year.
Gustavsson doesn't have quite the pedigree as Lundqvist. He's a bit older than Lundqvist when he crossed the Atlantic, and his numbers in the Elitserien aren't quite as good. In his last two seasons in that league, Gustavsson recorded save percentages of .919 (20 games) and .932 (42 games), which are excellent but don't quite compare to Lundqvist's .927 (48 games) and .935 (44 games). However, Gustavsson doesn't have to be as good as Lundqvist to be a big step up for Toronto. Burke undoubtedly sees at least one advantage in Gustavsson, dubbed "the Monster": height. He's three inches taller than Lundqvist, and in the Maple Leafs World, it seems size is what really matters.
Even playing half-time with Toskala, Gustavsson projects to be the Leafs' MVP, with a 9.0 GVT in 35 games. Toskala projects to be terrible (-4.1 GVT in 37 games), so Gustavsson should be given every chance at the starting job from day one. Toronto's season may depend on it.
Top Draft Pick:
Toronto drafted center Nazem Kadri seventh overall. Kadri is a highly-skilled player who projects to become a very good NHLer. He doesn't fit very well with the Leafs' current emphasis on size, though he's not terribly small. Kadri is versatile and kills penalties. Hopefully this means the Leafs are looking to get more skilled players as they rebuild. They could have had Ryan Ellis if they wanted skill, of course, but the same could be said of any team drafting from #3 to #10.
General Manager:
Brian Burke built a great team in Anaheim, and did so largely focusing on defense. He seems to be hoping for a repeat performance in Toronto, but there's no Pronger or Niedermayer in sight here.
Burke has been the Leafs' GM for less than a year, but has certainly put his stamp on the team in that time. He deserves credit for his trade of Nik Antropov last year, getting a good draft pick in return for the impending free agent, and avoiding a big payday for the talented but inconsistent winger. Burke also deserves credit for getting a good return in exchange for Dominic Moore, and for trading an aging Pavel Kubina this past offseason, who would have been the team's highest-paid player this year. He shed Kubina's $5 million in salary which freed up significant money for younger players. Though he threw in the small but talented Tim Stapletong in the deal, he also got a checking winger in return in Colin Stuart.
Unfortunately he also acquired Exelby in that trade, and then Burke turned around and dealt Stuart and young defenseman Anton Stralman in exchange for Wayne Primeau (who makes more than those two combined) and a draft pick. Though the pick is good, Burke overpaid in talent to acquire another big, nearly-valueless player. By himself, Stuart would have been more valuable to the team than Primeau, as Calgary should find out this year.
Burke also overpaid to land Komisarek, so he essentially freed the team of a big contract with Kubina, only to sign this big defenseman to one deal that's nearly as bad. With a cap hit of $4.5 million, Komisarek is not only the team's highest-paid defenseman, he's the highest-paid player on the team period. His projected GVT of 3.1 places him even with third-line forward John Mitchell, and behind 11 other players on the team. Apparently Burke prefers to pay defensemen by the pound.
Cap Space:
The Leafs do have the benefit of about $6 million in cap space going into the season, so they'll have some flexibility to take on salary during the year if they choose to go in that direction. Of course, it also means Burke has no excuse for not adding someone who can score some points for the team.
The Future:
The cupboards are pretty bare in Toronto's farm system. Burke has accumulated a few draft picks, but the existing prospects are lean. Tlusty and especially Kadri should be wearing the Maple Leaf jersey in the near future, but beyond them there's little to look forward to in the system. There are a number of US collegiate forwards on the reserve list, such as Tyler Bozak, Christian Hanson, Chad Rau and Viktor Stalberg who are all between 21 and 23 years old, but had unimpressive numbers last year. None of them stand out as having a particularly bright future.
Former goaltender-of-the-future Justin Pogge was jettisoned for a draft pick after Gustavsson was signed. Pogge is less than two years younger than the Monster, and his stock has dropped rapidly. It was likely a good move.
What to Expect:
Toronto should finish comfortably in the bottom third of the league on offense, and about the same on defense. Gustavsson isn't a sure thing, and combined with Toskala's poor performance he makes the crease a big question mark. The defense is solid but unspectacular and the forwards don't score much, which leaves us with an end result of a team that could very well be in the running for the #1 overall draft pick in 2010. Of course, the goaltending situation could change things for the Maple Leafs. If Gustavsson step into the NHL without missing a beat, and/or if Toskala regains some of his previous form, the Leafs won't be terrible. Unfortunately for Toronto, even in a best-case scenerio, they won't be very good.
Iain Fyffe is an author of Puck Prospectus.
You can contact Iain by clicking here or click here to see Iain's other articles.
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