September 5, 2009
2009-10 VUKOTA Projections
Colorado Avalanche, 27th Overall

by Robert Vollman

(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)

Offense:

2008-09 Goals For: 199 (30th on Offense)

2009-2010 Goals For: 218 (29th on Offense)*

Defense:

2008-09 Goals Against: 257 (T-25th on Defense)

2009-10 Goals Against: 250 (T-20th on Defense)*

Points:

2008-09 Point Total: 69 (28th in Points)

2009-10 Point Total: 81 (27th in Points)*

Team GVT:

2008-09 Team GVT: - 58 (28th Overall)

2009-10 Team GVT: - 29 (27th Overall)*

Bayesian Ratings:

2009-10 Offense: 2.69 (29th on Offense)*

2009-10 Defense: 3.01 (21st on Defense)*

2009-10 Total: -0.32 (27th Overall)*

Team Contention Status:

Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 31.0 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*:        10.8 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*:         3.7 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*:          1.2 %
Stanley Cup Champions*:                                0.4 %

*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)

2009-10 will be a long season for Colorado fans. Their team is projected to finish 2nd to last in goals scored, to allow more goals than the league average, and to end the season only a few points out of last place overall.

Forwards

Colorado will use this season to find and develop the next crop of talented forwards because right now, even in the most optimistic scenario, they are simply too many pieces short of fielding a competitive quartet of forward lines.

Legend:

Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.

RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.

OGVT: Offensive GVT

DGVT: Defensive GVT

GVT: Total GVT

                               2008-2009            2009-10 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player         Tm  P  GP  G  A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP  G  A PTS OGVT DGVT GVT
24 Paul Stastny    COL C  45 11 25 36   1  2.8  1.8  63 19 32 50  6.0  2.7  8.7
33 Milan Hejduk    COL RW 82 27 32 59   1  4.0  3.0  76 22 28 50  4.8  2.5  7.3
23 Wojtek Wolski   COL LW 78 14 28 42   2  1.3  2.6  74 15 28 43  3.0  2.3  5.8
27 Marek Svatos    COL RW 69 14 20 34   5  2.1  2.3  65 16 19 35  3.7  1.9  5.6
22 Chris Stewart   COL RW 53 11  8 19 -11  0.6 -0.7  54 12 12 24  1.8  0.8  2.6
24 T.J. Hensick    COL C  61  4 17 21   0 -0.1  1.1  55  7 15 22  1.1  1.3  2.3
25 David Jones     COL RW 40  8  5 13  -4  0.5  0.4  46  9  9 17  0.9  1.0  1.9
25 Cody McLeod     COL LW 79 15  5 20  -3 -0.4  1.5  64 11  8 19  0.4  1.5  1.8
21 T.J. Galiardi   COL LW 11  3  1  4  -2 -0.1 -0.1  34  8  8 15  1.0  0.7  1.7
34 Darcy Tucker    COL RW 63  8  8 16  -6 -1.4  0.2  57  9 11 20  0.6  0.9  1.5
29 Chris Durno     COL LW  2  0  0  0   0 -0.1  0.0  27  4  6 10  0.6  0.5  1.1
28 Matt Hendricks  COL C   4  0  0  0   1 -0.2  0.2  28  4  6 10  0.5  0.6  1.1
31 Per Ledin       COL LW  3  0  0  0  -1 -0.2 -0.1  27  4  6 10  0.5  0.5  1.0
31 Jesse Boulerice EDM RW  2  0  0  0   0 -0.1  0.0  27  4  6 10  0.5  0.5  1.0
28 David Koci      TBL LW 37  1  1  2   2 -0.5  0.9  42  1  4  5 -0.3  1.3  0.9
24 Philippe Dupuis COL C   8  0  0  0  -1 -0.5  0.0  31  5  6 10  0.3  0.6  0.8
31 Brian Willsie   COL RW 42  1  3  4  -4 -1.7  0.1  45  4  6 10 -0.5  0.7 0 .2

With a combined GVT of 41.4, the Colorado Avalanche have one of the weaker collections of forwards in the league. In Stastny and Hejduk they do have two top-line forwards, and along with Wolski and Svatos they’ll always have at least one good line, but the rest of the forwards are barely contributing at replacement-level.

On the bright sight, with so few impact forwards, nowhere else in the league is there a better opportunity for new or undiscovered talents to flourish. The Avalanche enjoy one of the larger collections of young talent who will be relying heavily on the leadership of their only experienced veteran and 20-goal scorer, Milan Hejduk.

Forwards - Offensively

Legend:

ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.

ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.

QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.

GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.

DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.

OGVT: Offensive GVT

Player  ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Stastny 0.4 1.2  2.25 2.3 3.9  8.14 -0.01 1.8 0.9  0.13
Hejduk  0.8 1.2  2.64 1.9 1.7  6.87 -0.02 1.6 0.6  0.11
Svatos  0.6 1.0  2.33 2.3 2.7  7.66 -0.07 1.3 1.1  0.10
Jones   0.9 0.5  1.72 2.4 2.4  4.84 -0.12 1.3 0.6  0.06
Stewart 0.9 0.5  1.73 1.0 3.0  3.98  0.03 1.3 0.9  0.05
Wolski  0.6 1.1  2.40 0.6 2.6  5.20 -0.12 2.0 0.6  0.05
Hensick 0.3 1.1  1.85 0.4 2.2  3.07 -0.13 1.8 0.6 -0.01
McLeod  1.1 0.4  2.05 0.0 0.0  1.96  0.03 0.9 1.2 -0.03
Tucker  0.5 0.4  1.38 1.2 1.8  4.74 -0.04 2.0 1.6 -0.08
Koci    0.3 0.3  2.51 0.0 0.0  0.00 -0.18 2.5 0.3 -0.14
Willsie 0.1 0.4  0.86 0.0 0.0  0.00  0.00 1.0 0.1 -0.22

According to GVT calculations, the Colorado Avalanche don’t have even a single stand-out offensive forward. Together they total only 0.5 offensive GVT per 60 minutes, far too low to be competitive even if they were the league’s best defensively (which they’re not). They were relatively ineffective in generating offense last season, and have very few goal-scoring threats and even fewer reliable playmakers.

The top four offensive contributors in almost every category are Stastny, Hejduk, Svatos and Wolski, and they should enjoy lots of premium ice-time while still leaving lots of opportunities this coming season for others:

• Jones and Stewart were the 2nd leading even-strength goal scorers, and according to GVT the only other Avalanche forward to contribute offensively beyond replacement level. Jones did it without the opportunity to play with top linemates.
• McLeod was the highest even-strength goal scorer, had the fewest giveaways and was 2nd to Tucker in drawing penalties.
• Hensick joins the big 4 as last season’s only good playmaking forward.

Forwards - Defensively

Legend:

ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.

QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.

FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.

TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.

HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.

BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.

TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.

Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.

DGVT: Defensive GVT

Player ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP  FO%  TM% HITS BkS TkA Pen  DGVT
Koci    2.23  0.00 -0.23  0.0  0.0 10.6 1.4 1.1 4.9  0.24
Svatos  2.81  0.00 -0.02  0.0  0.0  2.5 1.4 0.9 1.1  0.11
McLeod  2.85 10.44 -0.03 40.0  0.1 12.7 2.1 1.5 2.6  0.10
Stastny 3.05  6.94  0.07 51.8 33.7  1.2 2.3 2.1 0.7  0.09
Wolski  3.13  3.15  0.01 48.2 11.7  2.3 1.7 2.9 0.5  0.09
Hejduk  3.60  5.23  0.05 45.0  3.4  1.1 1.1 2.3 0.3  0.08
Hensick 2.50 43.90 -0.07 47.3 14.9  1.1 1.7 2.2 0.5  0.06
Jones   2.78 13.40 -0.01 50.0  0.3  6.4 1.5 2.5 0.5  0.04
Tucker  2.38  9.52 -0.01 42.9  0.9  6.9 1.4 1.1 1.4  0.01
Willsie 1.72  6.12 -0.06 33.7  3.8  4.4 2.5 1.5 0.8  0.01
Stewart 3.57  0.00 -0.02 33.3  0.7  7.3 0.7 1.7 0.6 -0.05

With a sum of 0.89 defensive GVT per 60 minutes the Avalanche forwards are definitely below average defensively, but not the worst. Though lacking any shut-down forwards, there are certainly several teams with fewer quality defensive forwards than Colorado.

Stastny and Hejduk were to whom the Avalanche turned when up against the top competition, and it showed in the high number of goals against that were scored when they were on the ice. At the moment, Stastny is their lone go-to faceoff guy, and he was surprisingly also the #2 shot blocker. The other top shot-blockers were the heavy-hitter McLeod and the veteran Willsie, who may have ranked near the bottom by some metrics, but opponent scoring was lowest last season when he was on the ice.

On the flip side, Koci’s excellent defensive numbers in Tampa Bay last season were padded by being used only against very weak competition, and he also took far too many penalties. Stewart was a big defensive liability last season, but, like Jones, took relatively few penalties for all the punishment he dished out.

Defensemen

The Colorado Avalanche have assembled a deep group of both veteran and rookie defensemen that are likely to be very good defensively, but contribute very little offensively.

Legend:

Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.

RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.

OGVT: Offensive GVT

DGVT: Defensive GVT

GVT: Total GVT

                               2008-2009             2009-10 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player            Tm  P GP  G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP G A PTS  OGVT DGVT GVT
24 Kyle Quincey       LAK D 72  4 34 38  7  3.9  6.0  73 7 29 36  4.2  5.1  9.2
29 John-Michael Liles COL D 75 12 27 39  0  4.4  3.5  70 9 27 35  4.2  4.0  8.3
35 Ruslan Salei       COL D 70  4 17 21 11  0.0  6.3  64 4 17 21  1.6  3.6  5.2
33 Brett Clark        COL D 76  2 10 12 -4 -2.8  3.4  65 3 12 14 -0.3  3.6  3.3
31 Tom Preissing      LAK D 22  3  4  7 -4  0.7 -0.1  45 4 11 14  1.5  1.7  3.2
30 Scott Hannan       COL D 81  1  9 10 -9 -2.8  2.2  67 2 10 11 -0.8  3.2  2.4
38 Adam Foote         COL D 42  1  6  7 -7 -0.4  0.2  48 2  8 10  0.1  2.2  2.2
33 Daniel Tjarnqvist  COL D 37  2  2  4  5 -0.4  2.5  43 2  5  7  0.0  1.9  2.0
23 Raymond Macias     COL D  6  0  1  1  1 -0.1  0.3  30 2  6  8  0.4  1.2  1.6
28 Aaron MacKenzie    COL D  5  0  0  0  1 -0.1  0.4  29 1  5  6  0.3  1.1  1.4
23 Wes O'Neill        COL D  3  0  0  0 -2 -0.1 -0.4  28 2  5  7  0.4  0.9  1.3
23 Kyle Cumiskey      COL D  6  0  0  0 -2 -0.3 -0.2  35 2  6  7  0.1  1.1  1.2
26 Brett Skinner      NYI D 11  0  0  0  4 -0.8  1.1  33 1  5  6 -0.1  1.3  1.2
24 Derek Peltier      COL D 11  0  0  0 -3 -0.6 -0.4  32 1  5  6  0.0  1.0  0.9

Colorado has a deep group, which includes quite a few veterans, led by two solid defensemen in Liles and the newly-acquired Quincey. However, the Avalanche are projected to combine for a total GVT of only 31.6 over replacement value, so their defensemen are not going to make them competitive. On the bright side, this calculation does not include Foote or Tjarnqvist (UFA), giving Colorado options if any of the top six falter.

Defensemen - Offensively

Legend:

ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.

ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.

QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.

GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.

DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.

OGVT: Offensive GVT

Player     ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Liles      0.3 0.6  2.12 1.2 3.0  7.31 -0.01 2.0 0.2  0.12
Quincey    0.1 0.4  2.51 0.5 5.9  9.20 -0.03 2.1 0.2  0.12
Preissing  0.2 0.2  2.07 1.4 2.1  4.92 -0.26 2.4 0.0  0.08
Salei      0.2 0.6  2.65 0.3 2.0  5.37 -0.06 1.5 0.5  0.00
Foote      0.1 0.5  1.71 0.0 0.0  0.00  0.00 2.0 0.1 -0.03
Tjarnqvist 0.2 0.2  2.05 0.0 0.0  0.00 -0.07 1.2 0.1 -0.04
Clark      0.1 0.4  2.15 0.0 0.7  3.68 -0.03 1.4 0.1 -0.09
Hannan     0.0 0.4  1.94 0.0 0.0  0.00  0.01 1.2 0.3 -0.10

With a combined Offensive GVT of only 0.32 over replacement level per 60 minutes, Colorado’s defensemen aren’t expected to contribute very much offensively. Liles and Quincey are certainly solid contributors, but the top teams have even better offensive defensemen.

When looking for secondary offensive contributors, Preissing could help if he could draw some penalties and cut back on giveaways. Though playing with very weak linemates last season in Los Angeles, he still found a way to contribute a few points. Colorado’s other option is Salei, who was 2nd to Liles in even-strength scoring per 60 minutes, drew the most penalties, and led all defensemen in ESGFA.

Defensemen - Defensively

Legend:

ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.

QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.

FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.

TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.

HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.

BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.

TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.

Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.

DGVT: Defensive GVT

Player    ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP HITS BkS TkA Pen  DGVT
Tjarnqvist 1.93  8.09 -0.11  1.3 3.2 0.3 0.4  0.28
Salei      2.86  5.85 -0.01  4.3 5.8 0.7 1.5  0.22
Quincey    2.77  6.96 -0.02  4.6 3.0 0.7 1.2  0.18
Clark      2.90 10.45  0.05  2.6 8.4 0.9 0.6  0.11
Liles      3.02  9.11 -0.02  2.2 3.9 0.8 0.5  0.10
Hannan     2.79  7.30  0.07  1.9 5.4 0.9 0.4  0.08
Foote      2.78  7.09  0.06  3.9 5.6 1.2 1.1  0.02
Preissing  3.68  5.33 -0.12  2.4 3.4 0.7 0.5 -0.01

One of Colorado’s brightest points is the defensive abilities of their defensemen. With a combined defensive GVT of 0.97 above replacement level per 60 minutes, the Avalanche figure to be just as good defensively as the league’s best six-packs.

They have a proven defensive performer in Salei, and they’ll be especially solid if they re-sign Tjarnqvist. Although not tested against the league’s best last season and being near the bottom in hits thrown, takeaways and blocked shots, Tjarnqvist is one of those rare defensemen against whom fewer than 2 even-strength goals per 60 minutes were scored, and not very many defensemen had a better defensive GVT per 60 minutes than his 0.28.

When in a tough spot last season Colorado turned to the shot-blocking trio of Clark, Hannan and Foote. More will be asked defensively of all three next season, especially Foote, who may have led the defensemen in takeaways, but otherwise his defensive contributions were insufficient.

Among the newly-acquired King defensemen, Quincey was very reliable at both ends of the ice though Preissing, despite being used against weaker opponents, allowed far more scoring.

In signing Anderson, Colorado has improved its goaltending from a serious liability to a pairing that, while still in the bottom third, ought to be more competitive.

Legend:

TGP: Total Games Played is Minutes Played divided by 60.

S/GP: Shots Against per 60 minutes.

ESSV%: Save Percentage at even-strength. Average is around .913.

GVT: Goals Versus Threshold; Value above replacement-level player, in goals.

GVT/GP: GVT per 60 minutes. 0 is replacement-level.

                                                            2009-10
                                                            VUKOTA
                             2008-2009                      Projection
Age Goalie         Team GP  TGP S/GP  SV% ESSV% GVT  GVT/GP GVT
27  Craig Anderson FLA  31 27.3 35.8 .924 .928  12.9  0.47  7.4
26  Peter Budaj    COL  56 53.9 28.4 .899 .908  -6.3 -0.12 -0.1

Anderson was excellent as Florida’s backup last season, with a sparkling 0.47 GVT per game, but is projected to drop off slightly this season in Colorado. Budaj is expected to improve from his poor performance last year, but will still be a replacement level goaltender. Together they have a projected GVT of 7.3, which is below average, but not horrible.

Legend:

GS: Games Started.

QS: Quality Starts.

WS: Quality Starts that were Wasted (lost) due to lack of offense.

BO: Non-Quality Starts where the goalie was Bailed Out by a good offense.

QS%: Percentage of all starts that were Quality Starts. Over 50% is good.

GR: Games Relieved.

Goalie   GS  SV% QS WS BO  QS% GR MIN   SV%
Anderson 27 .924 15  2  2 55.6% 4 106  .931
Budaj    55 .899 27 11  4 49.1% 1  19 1.000

Anderson delivered quality starts well over half of the time, which will give the Avalanche players a chance to win roughly 5 times out of 9. Budaj turned in quality starts about half the time, but Colorado blew just under half of them.

Other Players

The Avalanche do have some depth in their system, including two potential 10+ goal scorers in veteran Darren Haydar and rookie Matt Duchene. On defense Brett Skinner would be the most likely call-up, and would outscore the likes of Brett Clark.

All statistics translated to NHL Equivalent

Age Pos Player          Lge GP G  A  PTS
30  RW  Darren Haydar   AHL 81 14 22 36
18  C   Matt Duchene    OHL 69 11 17 28
24  C   Philippe Dupuis AHL 77  7 13 20 RFA
29  LW  Chris Durno     AHL 80  8 12 20
26  D   Brett Skinner   AHL 74  2 14 16
21  LW  T.J. Galiardi   AHL 79  7  8 15 
28  C   Matt Hendricks  AHL 48  6  7 13
25  D   Raymond Macias  AHL 52  2  9 11
31  LW  Per Ledin       AHL 62  5  5 10 UFA
31  RW  Jesse Boulerice AHL 44  2  1  3 
28  D   Aaron MacKenzie AHL 58  1  4  5
23  D   Wes O’Neill     AHL 65  0  2  2
23  D   Kyle Cumiskey   AHL 35  2  5  7
24  D   Derek Peltier   AHL 76  1  7  8
25  D   Darcy Campbell  AHL 76  3  4  7

Although not featured on this list, 22-year-old Ryan Stoa is another young forward who might see action this season.

Shootout

Colorado is blessed with the best shootout player in the league in Wolski, who was good on 10 of 12 attempts last season. Only Wolski and Kotalik scored more shootout goals than Hejduk, who was good 6 times out of 13. Colorado’s third option is Marek Svatos, who was good 3 times out of 9, right around average.

With these two powerful weapons, Budaj was 3rd in shootout wins despite his far below average shootout save percentage of .629 %. Anderson won’t help in the shootout, because last season he had the league’s worst shootout save percentage of .364 %, stopping only 4 of 11 attempts. If either one of them can improve, Colorado could become the league’s best shootout team and steal five or six extra points.

Special Teams

Last season both Colorado’s power play, at 15.7%, and penalty killing at 79.9% were in the bottom third of the league.

Stastny is a power play artist, but Svatos is his only really effective partner. Wolski and Hejduk were both decent, but at the moment there isn’t enough to form a good 2nd unit. Quincey was dominant in LA, scoring 6.4 points per 60 power play minutes, while the team scored over 9 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. Liles will make an excellent partner, with Salei and Preissing working as an average 2nd unit at best.

Wolski was very effective at killing penalties. In fact, he was (amazingly) nearly more difficult to score on with the man advantage than at even strength, and Hejduk was also effective killing penalties with a 5.23 SHGAA. Beyond those two, Colorado doesn’t have much. Stastny and Willsie are usable, but Jones and McLeod need dramatic improvements, and Colorado should think about giving Svatos a try. On defense Colorado turned principally to Clark, who was terrible killing penalties. Hannan and Foote were decent, and Salei was the toughest to score against.

Overall

Despite a slight improvement, we project the Avalanche to have the league’s 2nd worst offense, finish last in their division, and 2nd to last in the West, well out of the playoffs.

Season  GF/G GA/G PTS 
2008-09 2.32 3.08  69
2009-10 2.69 3.01  80

We calculate that Colorado has only a 31% chance of making the playoffs, and only a 0.4% chance of hoisting their 3rd Stanley Cup. At least they could look forward to next year's draft, knowing that they're likely to have a top 5 pick.

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.