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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 210 (T-25th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 223 (T-25th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 218 (6th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 251 (23rd on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 95 (12th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 85 (24th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 8 (19th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 15 (24th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.79 (T-24th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.98 (T-17th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.19 (24th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 39.2 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 14.9 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 5.6 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 2.0 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.7 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Hold the presses! Are the New York Rangers really set to go with a significant youth movement this season? Historically, it seems (What’s the word?) completely implausible. You’ll recall that the Broadway Blues are the same team that recycled end-of-career Guy Lafleur and Marcel Dionne in the late 80’s, apparently in a nod towards Old Timers’ Day at Yankee Stadium. You’ll also recall that this is the current management team which invested in aging stars like Eric Lindros, Pavel Bure and Theo Fleury in the not-so-distant past, as well as overpaying for mediocre veterans like Bobby Holik and Wade Redden. If there ever was a team that was flat-out allergic to youth, it’s the New York Rangers.
That may soon change, on a team devoid of stars outside of two notable exceptions. New York has a farm system with a number of pieces that will be ready to contribute at Madison Square Garden as early as this year or next. While fans can daydream of the Rangers building their team the right way, keep in mind that there’s still some cap space for Slats to work with, so let’s not call the youth revival a done deal yet. Still, if the season were to start today, indications are that rookies such as Artem Anisimov, Evgeni Grachev, Matt Gilroy and others could possibly be dressed for opening night.
The revolving door was in full swing in the offseason, with the departures of Nik Antropov, Scott Gomez, Nikolai Zherdev, Marcus Naslund, Paul Mara, Derek Morris, Lauri Korpikoski, Fredrik Sjostrom and Colton Orr and the arrivals of Marian Gaborik, Christopher Higgins, Ales Kotalik, Donald Brashear, Tyler Arnason, Brian Boyle and Enver Lisin. Brandon Dubinsky and Blair Betts, among others, remain free agents.
The significant turnover can only be seen as a positive. The 2008-09 Blue Shirts had too many average and slightly above average parts that were gobbling up their salary cap and roster slots without providing the core of a championship caliber squad.
New York Rangers - Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-10 VUKOTA Projections 2008-09
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Marian Gaborik 27 21 24 45 +6.8 +2.0 +0.0 +8.8 +0.89
Chris Drury 33 20 29 48 +4.6 +3.1 +0.0 +7.7 -0.08
Ryan Callahan 24 19 18 37 +3.9 +3.3 +0.0 +7.2 +0.44
Brandon Dubinsky* 23 16 28 44 +3.8 +2.4 +0.0 +6.1 +0.17
Vaclav Prospal 34 18 26 44 +4.4 +1.5 +0.0 +5.8 -0.25
Christopher Higgins 26 17 17 34 +3.7 +1.8 +0.0 +5.4 +0.07
Ales Kotalik 31 16 21 37 +3.7 +1.2 +0.2 +5.1 -0.28
Sean Avery 29 12 17 28 +2.6 +1.9 +0.0 +4.5 +0.96
Enver Lisin 23 14 12 26 +2.0 +1.0 +0.0 +3.0 -0.97
Tyler Arnasson 30 7 15 23 +0.5 +1.3 +0.0 +1.8 -0.62
Artem Anisimov 21 5 7 12 +0.7 +0.6 +0.0 +1.3 N/A
Aaron Voros 28 8 9 17 +0.3 +0.7 +0.0 +1.0 -0.29
Brian Boyle 25 7 6 12 +0.4 +0.5 +0.0 +0.9 -1.88
Donald Brashear 37 2 3 5 -1.4 +0.5 +0.0 -0.9 -0.81
*Restricted Free Agent (unsigned)
The free agent signing of the highly skilled but injury-plagued RW Marian Gaborik was the big splash of the offseason, made possible by the salary dump of C Scott Gomez onto the Canadiens. The 3rd overall pick in the 2000 draft, the 27 year old Slovakian forward spent his first eight seasons with the Minnesota Wild, already playing a full NHL season at age 18 in 2000-01. Gaborik’s best production came in 2007-08, when he put up 42 G, 41 A, 83 P, +17 plus/minus in 77 GP, while scoring at a 1.08 P/GP pace. In fact, the forward has topped a point per game for the last four seasons, with the unfortunate caveat being that he lost significant playing time in 2006-07 (48 GP) and 2008-09 (17 GP) to hip surgeries.
GM Glen Sather has been quoted as saying that Marian Gaborik is a top 10 talent in the NHL. If Slats is talking about his per game production over the past few seasons or his upside going forward–some measure that takes out the time missed to injury and the future injury risk–then maybe, but for a GM that has been recently burned by questionable contracts to the likes of Wade Redden, Scarecrow doesn’t seem to be too afraid of a little fire.
What’s most questionable is what the Rangers have to win or lose. If the Blue Shirts were a piece or two away from being a Cup contender, rolling the dice on a high risk/reward superstar would make sense. For an average-at-best team that has overachieved in the playoffs of recent, the upside of Gaborik is pulling off another first round upset. Then again, those motivations may not be that far off. VUKOTA reads the Rangers as being a fringe playoff contender, so a healthy Gaborik may help ensure an otherwise unattainable playoff berth. That’s some additional playoff revenue for the Dolans and trickle-down for everyone else involved in the Rangers organization, which could also mean a little more job security for Sather. Additionally, it would be nice for the fan base to have a recognizable hero that doesn’t wear a goalie’s mask.
All that said, VUKOTA’s +8.8 GVT and 45 points for Gaborik is obviously very cautious, so look for the Slovak to exceed these totals. Regardless of games played, expect the familiar point per game pace and high ESTR rate.
Is there a good reason why the Rangers haven’t thrown a few bucks the way of high-energy C Brandon Dubinsky yet? The restricted free agent wouldn’t cost much, is a popular homegrown Ranger, and was their best playoff performer according to Even Strength Total Rating, at +1.34. Though VUKOTA expects a middling +6.1 GVT and 44 Points in his age 23 season, Dubinsky has a good chance of exceeding those conservative estimates on natural growth alone; the young centerman will exceed them significantly if lined up with Marian Gaborik.
Here’s the point where we discuss last season’s big To-Do, Sean Avery. The congenial Mr. Avery was arguably the Rangers’ most popular skater before his departure to the Dallas Stars during last offseason, where, trying to take his celebrated agitation skills to new heights (or depths), he found himself persona non grata with both his new team and Commissioner Bettman. Boy, that was quick. Luckily for the eight year veteran, New York still welcomes the league’s prodigal child with open arms, as fans in the Big Apple have always had a warm place in their hearts for eccentric agitators, be it Esa Tikkanen or Tie Domi. In fact (sniff!), it makes me proud to be a New York sports fan. Aside from the need for more self-control, Avery would be a heckuva player if he only had some offensive skills, as the little things the “superpest” does help explain his excellent ESTR. The value of Avery’s agitation may be a bit overblown, though, as his +0.9 net penalties per 60 minutes is good, but not elite. Not surprising, as what’s the point of hauling down a player who probably isn’t going to score anyway?
Of the other forwards, look for captain Chris Drury to bounce back from what your most mental images of him are; the quintessential winner was unusually ineffective during the playoffs, likely due to injury. Expect further growth from high energy youngster Ryan Callahan, league average play from ex-Canadien Christopher Higgins, a potential bounceback from former Lightning winger Vaclav Prospal, a bump in shootout goals from ex-Sabre Ales Kotalik and some knuckle sandwiches from journeyman enforcer Donald Brashear.
Of the rookies, Artem Anisimov stands the best chance to make it with the big team, likely as the third line center. The 21 yr old Russian was 4th in the AHL in goals last season and was first in points for players under 25 years old. 19 year old Evgeni Grachev, 3rd round pick in 2008, also has a shot of making the Rangers out of training camp. The 6’4” youngster was the OHL’s Rookie of the Year and is considered New York’s top prospect. The young power forward is considered to be a good two way player and may develop into a second line talent.
New York Rangers - Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-10 VUKOTA Projections 2008-09
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Michal Rozsival 31 7 24 31 +3.2 +5.5 +0.0 +8.6 -0.06
Wade Redden 32 4 21 26 +1.9 +3.8 +0.0 +5.7 +0.22
Dan Girardi 25 5 18 23 +1.5 +3.7 +0.0 +5.2 -0.35
Marc Staal 22 4 13 17 -0.1 +4.7 +0.0 +4.6 -0.44
Corey Potter 25 2 6 9 +0.8 +1.3 +0.0 +2.1 -0.80
Mike Sauer 22 2 6 7 +0.4 +1.0 +0.0 +1.4 -1.84
When it comes to New York’s blueliners, the discussion generally revolves around the horrendous contract (5 years, $31 million remaining) of the underachieving Wade Redden. However much the ex-Senator may have been overvalued and however uninspiring his play with the Rangers, the truth is that he ranks 2nd by GVT and 1st by ESTR among the Blue Shirts’ defensemen. That said, his prohibitive contract makes a future buyout an attractive option if the 32 year old’s play slips any further. Defensive specialist Michal Rozsival brought his A game in the postseason (+1.08 ESTR). Ideally, the Czech veteran will be slotted in as an above average 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman in the medium term. In all, the Rangers four veteran D-men under contract are a roughly average squad when expecting some natural improvement expected from young Dan Girardi and Marc Staal.
It probably hasn’t escaped you that an NHL team typically dresses six defensemen and not just four. With only four defensemen signed and cap space available, you would think that New York would be a sure bet to sign some replacement-level fodder, but not so fast. The Rangers have several legitimate prospects that could fill positions on their third defensive pairing, such as Michael Del Zotto, Bobby Sanguinetti, Ilkka Heikkinen, Matt Gilroy and Michael Sauer. 19 year old Del Zotto, 1st round pick in 2008, finished the OHL season strongly, at over a point per game pace in his final 50 regular season and postseason games. 21 year old Sanguinetti, 2nd in scoring amongst AHL rookie defensemen and a potential power play quarterback, improved defensively during his rookie season with Hartford. 24 year old Heikkinen was one of the top point scorers in Finland’s SM Liiga in his second year with Helsinki’s HIFK. Hobey Baker Award winner and captain of the NCAA champion Boston University Bulldogs, 25 year old Matt Gilroy has taken a long and unusual path to the NHL, from college walk-on to undrafted free agent. 22 year old Sauer is a defense-first blueliner who topped the Wolfpack with a +29 plus/minus rating.
Impressively, the Rangers have even more young defensemen among their top prospects, and some with higher ceilings than the aforementioned group, such as University of Wisconsin captain Ryan McDonagh. Ideally, New York will have a solid, predominantly homegrown defensive unit within the next 2-3 years.
New York Rangers - Goalies
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-10 VUKOTA Projections 2008-09
Name Age GGVT SGVT GVT Save % GAA
Henrik Lundqvist 27 +11.6 +0.5 +12.2 0.916 2.43
Steve Valiquette 32 +2.3 +0.3 +2.6 0.907 2.84
My stab at a formula for approximating netminders’ postseason success received by far the most venom from New York fans (“Timo you need to go and get your head checked out to see if you are missing a brain!”), who scoffed at the idea that their King Henrik could possibly be amongst the worst playoff starters, with a predicted .906 save percentage. As it turns out, Hank posted only a marginally better .908 save percentage (Superior to playoff disasters Khabibulin, Nabokov and Kiprusoff, mind you), a product of both the high-flying Capitals’ offense and perhaps a little too much tread off the tire during the regular season. While no “Lunqvist Rules” are required for Team Sweden’s #1 goaltender, a few less pucks faced over the course of the regular season might keep the 27 year old fresh for meaningful games in April. In Steve Valiquette, New York has only a mediocre #2 netminder, but there are hopes that Matt Zaba of the Wolfpack will develop into a quality backup shortly.
New York Rangers – Big Picture
Sizing up New York’s strengths and weaknesses in 2008-09, the Rangers decreased in effectiveness with distance away from the goal crease: The Blue Shirts were 14th in goaltending GVT, 19th in defensive GVT and 25th in offensive GVT. It would stand to reason that the offense would at least marginally improve with the acquisition of Gaborik and development of some of the youngsters. The defense should continue to improve with infusions of the best of the youngsters competing for playing time at MSG. Henrik Lundqvist’s top notch goaltending is assumed to be a given for years to come.
New York’s special teams were at opposite ends of the spectrum: Their power play ranked a dismal 29th in the NHL, with an anemic 13.9% conversion rate, while their penalty killing was best in the NHL at an outstanding 87.8%. Yet good penalty killing and a bad power play typically mean energetic young legs giving a superior effort, but with subpar skills. That’s commendable, but typically signaling a lack of an upside. It’s sufficient reason for a roster shakeup, and that’s what the New York Rangers have done.
The remaining question is who will fill out that roster: Will it be an 11th hour free agents signing or youngsters from within the farm system? Here’s to hoping that the 2009-10 Rangers will be remembered as the beginning of the Blue Shirts’ homegrown core. Anything’s possible, I suppose.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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