|
(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 213 (24th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 225 (24th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 233 (T-12th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 252 (24th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 88 (20th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 86 (23rd in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 20 (21st Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 14 (23rd Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.82 (22nd on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.99 (20th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.17 (23rd Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 39.4 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 15.5 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 6.0 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 2.2 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.8 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
For the first time in over six years, the Predators found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in thanks to a subpar offense that couldn't generate enough goals throughout the season. Nashville had a fairly quite offseason with a few moves on occasion, but the majority of the roster remains the same.
The 35 year old Steve Sullivan was rewarded with a new contract when he re-signed with Nashville for 2 years and $7.5 million, and former Sharks forward Marcel Goc, former Avalanche center Ben Guite and former Wild left winger Peter Olvecky will be joining last year's Masterton Trophy winner in Nashville this October.
Gone are the likes of Vernon Fiddler, Greg Zanon, Scott Nichol, Jed Ortmeyer, and several others, though the Predators neither added nor subtracted anyone with a GVT over 5.0. Performance-wise the roster looks relatively the same going into the first game of 2009 as it did going into opening day 2008.
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Jason Arnott F 35 71.5 24.2 29.1 53.3 6.4 2.4 0.0 8.8
J.P. Dumont F 31 76.0 19.1 38.8 57.9 6.1 2.6 0.0 8.7
Martin Erat F 28 69.4 18.4 30.6 49.0 5.3 2.1 0.0 7.4
David Legwand F 29 69.4 17.3 23.1 40.5 3.8 2.4 0.0 6.2
Joel Ward F 29 70.8 14.6 17.6 32.1 2.6 2.4 0.0 5.0
Steve Sullivan F 35 51.3 11.8 19.7 31.5 3.0 1.6 0.0 4.7
Ben Guite F 31 55.9 7.2 9.1 16.3 0.3 1.8 0.0 2.1
Peter Olvecky F 24 42.1 5.4 8.2 13.6 0.2 0.9 0.0 1.1
Patric Hornqvist F 22 41.7 5.9 8.9 14.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.0
Mike Santorelli F 24 30.0 4.7 5.7 10.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5
Jordin Tootoo F 26 57.6 6.5 9.9 16.4 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.5
Jerred Smithson F 30 66.4 4.6 7.5 12.1 -1.7 2.0 0.0 0.2
Wade Belak F 33 45.5 1.7 2.6 4.3 -1.4 0.5 0.0 -0.9
Last season, the Nashville Predators finished 22nd in even-strength offense with a - 13.7 GVT. It shouldn't come off as stunning to anyone that, given the lack of talent among the forwards, that this offense couldn't balance out the outstanding defense and goaltending that was being provided at the Sommet Center night in and night out. In fact, two of the top four offensive threats in Nashville were defenders Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, and that won't change this year. Fans in "The Cellblock" can leave their catfish at home this year because goals will be few and far between.
Former Devil Jason Arnott set the record for most goals by a Nashville Predator last season with 33. The 34 year old, Ontario native posted a GVT of 9.9 last season (6.4 OGVT/3.5 DGVT/0 SGVT), and while expected to marginally decline this season to a GVT of 8.8, his offensive skills will still remain as good as they have been over the last few years. VUKOTA sees a slip in the veteran center's defensive value, as is the trend with the rest of the team, so Arnott might have to be more of an offensive threat this year, which in all likelihood won't happen, in order to make up for his declining defensive value. Overall, for a 35 year old, 24 goals, 29 assist and 53 points in 72 games is not a bad outlook. The .74 point per game pace is where his production was with New Jersey, so don't expect to see a noticeable decline this season, even in his 18:54 minutes of ice time per game. Unfortunately for Arnott, if the rest of the projections come to fruition, he would need a 12.0 Offense GVT just to make the offense competitive, and that includes the contributions that should be expected from the Weber and Suter combo.
The Montreal native J.P. Dumont would make a great complementary piece to a championship-contending team, but as a primary piece to this offense on the first line, you're asking for trouble. The 31 year old right winger had a good season throughout the 2008-09 campaign with 16 goals, 49 assists and 65 points, as well as a 4.1 Offensive GVT, 3.8 Defensive GVT and 7.9 total GVT. The former Buffalo Sabre should see an increase in defensive production and a decrease in offensive production this upcoming year, despite the fact that the former 3rd overall pick in 1996 should score more goals in fewer games. Since signing his first deal with Nashville, Dumont has managed to stay healty and more productive than he has ever been in his career. Even without the potent offense around him, Dumont should give goaltenders headaches for years to come.
Martin Erat is another very good complementary player, known for his speed and outstanding wrist shot, who should accumulate nearly 50 points as well as a 7.4 GVT this year. It's unfortunate that the 6'0'' southpaw won't likely get an opportunity to overtake Nashville energizer Steve Sullivan on the Arnott-Dumont-Sullivan first line, since Erat would likely maximize the output of the first unit offensively and defensively. Sullivan was only re-signed for the next two years, while Erat still has six of the seven remaining years on his contract left, meaning the 28 year old forward should have an opportunity to become a first unit skater later in his career. While we haven't been able to quantify intangibles yet, it's also possible that Sullivan's dedication, energy, sportsmanship and perseverance have rubbed off on the rest of his line, though you would think the primary line would of scored more goals last year as a result of these intangibles.
Joining Erat on the second line is the productive 29 year old center David Legwand. Unfortunately for us, that's as much of the second line we should expect to know for the time being, since GM David Poile is being vague as to who will be joining those two on the second unit come October. Poile would like to see a veteran presence on the third line, which is why Joel Ward won't be playing beside Erat and Legwand, and Mike Santorelli, Patric Hornqvist, Peter Olvecky and former Boston University standout Colin Wilson are in a free-for-all for the final spot on the second line. While this is an open competition, Nashville seems impressed with Santorelli's numbers at AHL-Milwaukee last season and are likely to give him the nod over the rest of the competition, but he won't be anything more than a replacement level player in his rookie season. Then again, if Ward isn't in the mix, it shouldn't matter who gets the last spot on the second line because they'll all be replacement level fodder for at least the 2009-10 season.
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Shea Weber D 24 77.5 15.7 35.4 51.1 8.8 5.3 0.0 14.1
Ryan Suter D 24 75.2 8.7 31.0 39.6 5.1 4.3 0.0 9.4
Dan Hamhuis D 27 74.0 4.3 19.5 23.8 1.7 4.6 0.0 6.4
Kevin Klein D 25 56.1 3.2 8.7 11.9 0.8 2.2 0.0 3.0
Alexander Sulzer D 25 27.8 1.6 5.2 6.8 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.4
The dynamic duo of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are among the best all-around defensemen pairs in the league. The 24 year old Weber is projected to have a second career best 14.1 GVT (8.8 Offensive GVT, 5.3 Defensive GVT), which falls just short of last year's numbers (9.4 Offensive GVT, 6.4 Defensive GVT, 15.8 GVT). The 49th overall pick in 2003 was second in minutes per game (23:58) last year and should continue to see similar time on the ice this year. The right-handed defenseman is the best skater on his team and will need to have an extraordinary performance in order to keep his team in the playoff hunt until the end of the season.
The recipient of a 4 year, $14 million contract extension last offseason, Ryan Suter has a plethora of talent to look forward to playing with on the defensive side of the puck. The American born's GVT is expected to rise from last year's 6.9 (4.9 Offensive GVT, 2 Defensive GVT) to a more productive 9.4 this year (5.1 Offensive GVT, 4.3 Defensive GVT), which would make him one of the few exceptions on the roster where a Nashville Predator was improving on defense.
The remainder of the defensemen on Nashville's roster include the likes of Kevin Klein, 25 year old prospect Alexander Sulzer, and Dan Hamhuis, whose defense (projected 4.6 Defensive GVT) goes unnoticed by many outside of the Central Division. Also, Puck Prospectus favorite Ryan Ellis could find himself as part of this defensive core in the near future. The supply of talented defensemen could allow the Predators to make a trade next offseason in order to address the need for a young, cheap forward with high upside.
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Pekka Rinne G 27 46.8 10.0 0.6 10.6
Dan Ellis G 29 34.1 4.3 -0.4 3.9
The Rinne-Ellis goaltending tandem is one of the better one's in the Western Conference. Pekka Rinne, a rookie last year, posted a .917 save percentage and had 30 quality starts in 50.0 games played, though he appeared in 52 total games, last season for a .600 quality start percentage. Don't expect the 29 year old Ellis to get another chance at reclaiming Nashville's starting job, but he's still a respectable backup and coach Barry Trotz will give him plenty of games to start in.
Special Teams
Last year the Predators finished in a three way tie for 26th in the league on the power play with a - 14.8 GVT, but finished 7th in penalty killing with a 6.8 GVT. With the strengths and weaknesses of this team, as well as the roster, being nearly the same as last year, there shouldn't any expectations for a a dramatic change in either direction for either special teams unit. Shea Weber and Jason Arnott will likely lead the power play unit in scoring and time on ice per game, while Dan Hamhuis will head the penalty killing unit. With Greg Zanon out in Minnesota, expect Ryan Suter to get additional penalty killing time in short-handed situations.
Conclusion
Unlike several of the other teams in the bottom ten, Nashville has some hope among its core of young defensemen, and a goalie with top five potential. The defense won't be as good as last year, and coupled with a poor offense where defensemen are relied upon too heavily to generate goals, this team will struggle to win games on a consistent basis. A good goalie should keep Nashville in many one goal games, but they're not likely to win more than a handful of those contests if they can't score. Look for the Predators to finish in the bottom of the Central Division this year and for their playoff drought to continue for the second consecutive year.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads