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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 234 (T-17th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 241 (T-13th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 248 (T-22nd on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 257(T-27th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 85 (21st in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 87 (T-21st in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 14 (20th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 11 (T-21st Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.97 (13th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.10 (28th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.13 (T-21st Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 36.6 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 16.1 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 6.4 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 2.5 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.9 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
The Oilers have a young team with strong potential and a fantastic new coaching staff, but for this season are simply too weak up front and defensively to compete. We expect them to fall short of the playoffs, but thanks to Hemsky and their front four defensemen, it will only be by a handful of points.
Forwards:
The Edmonton Oilers have a very young collection of forwards, giving them the potential to perform far better than you would normally expect from their lackluster numbers. However, given their serious deficiencies defensively, it’s not likely the young forwards will develop fast enough to become truly competitive just yet.
Legend:
Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2008-2009 2009-10 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player Tm P GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT GVT
26 Ales Hemsky EDM RW 72 23 43 66 5 9.0 1.9 70 23 41 64 9.0 2.0 11.0
24 Patrick O'Sullivan EDM C 81 16 27 43 1 1.3 3.3 77 18 28 46 4.0 2.7 6.9
31 Shawn Horcoff EDM C 80 17 36 53 8 3.2 2.6 71 17 30 47 4.6 2.3 6.9
22 Andrew Cogliano EDM C 82 18 20 38 -6 2.8 0.1 72 19 24 42 4.8 1.6 6.3
20 Sam Gagner EDM C 76 16 25 41 1 1.9 1.3 72 18 30 48 4.8 1.5 6.3
27 Dustin Penner EDM RW 78 17 20 37 10 0.5 2.7 72 17 21 38 2.7 1.8 4.5
24 Robert Nilsson EDM C 64 9 20 29 2 0.1 1.3 63 11 22 34 2.6 1.6 4.3
34 Ethan Moreau EDM LW 77 14 12 26 -3 0.4 0.7 61 10 11 21 1.2 1.2 2.4
24 Marc-Antoine Pouliot EDM C 63 8 12 20 1 0.0 0.9 58 9 13 22 1.0 1.2 2.2
33 Fernando Pisani EDM RW 38 7 8 15 -2 0.4 0.2 48 9 11 19 1.2 1.0 2.2
23 Rob Schremp EDM C 4 0 3 3 2 0.1 0.4 30 6 8 14 1.1 0.7 1.8
25 Ryan Potulny EDM C 8 0 3 3 2 0.1 0.4 31 5 8 12 0.8 0.7 1.5
23 Liam Reddox EDM LW 46 5 7 12 -7 -0.6 -0.6 49 7 9 17 0.4 0.7 1.1
24 J-F Jacques EDM LW 7 1 0 1 0 -0.3 0.1 31 5 6 11 0.4 0.6 1.0
22 Gilbert Brule EDM C 11 2 1 3 -3 0.1 -0.4 39 6 8 13 0.3 0.7 0.9
28 Christopher Minard PIT LW 20 1 2 3 -1 -0.7 0.1 35 4 6 10 0.2 0.6 0.8
24 Zachery Stortini EDM RW 52 6 5 11 -4 -0.8 0.0 53 6 8 14 -0.1 0.8 0.7
29 Steve MacIntyre EDM LW 22 2 0 2 -2 -0.4 -0.2 35 5 5 9 0.2 0.4 0.6
Together the Edmonton Oilers forwards are projected to total only 53.3 GVT, which is definitely below average. Given their young core, they have the potential of being far better. Other than Moreau (34) and Pisani (33), essentially all of their forwards are between ages 22 and 27.
At the moment Edmonton has only one top forward, their only 20-goal man Ales Hemsky. He’s complemented by a collection of four strong secondary forwards in O’Sullivan, Horcoff, Cogliano and Gagner. There should be plenty of top-6 ice-time for any number of potential forwards to step-up, like Penner or Nilsson.
Legend:
ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.
ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.
QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.
GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.
DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
Player ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Hemsky 1.1 0.9 2.74 0.8 5.3 7.07 0.26 3.4 1.3 0.28
Cogliano 0.9 0.9 2.35 1.5 1.9 5.23 -0.03 2.1 1.1 0.11
Horcoff 0.5 1.2 2.83 1.6 2.6 6.40 0.18 2.1 0.7 0.09
Gagner 0.6 1.2 2.59 1.6 1.3 6.21 0.11 2.7 0.5 0.07
Pisani 0.9 0.9 2.75 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.07 1.2 0.6 0.04
O'Sullivan 0.7 1.0 2.56 0.5 1.8 5.02 -0.04 2.6 1.2 0.04
Moreau 0.8 0.7 2.42 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.04 2.7 0.8 0.02
Penner 0.8 0.9 2.93 1.3 1.6 7.80 0.11 2.7 0.8 0.02
Nilsson 0.4 1.0 2.67 1.5 2.7 6.07 0.10 2.9 0.6 0.00
Pouliot 0.7 0.9 2.49 0.0 1.9 4.73 -0.03 1.9 0.7 0.00
Reddox 0.6 1.0 2.26 13.2 0.0 13.19 -0.03 1.0 0.9 -0.08
Stortini 1.0 0.8 2.72 0.0 0.0 18.75 -0.12 1.4 1.3 -0.12
Minard 0.3 0.7 2.01 0.0 0.0 6.27 -0.14 0.0 0.6 -0.20
MacIntyre 1.4 0.0 1.43 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.32 0.7 2.1 -0.27
Based on GVT calculations, Oiler forwards together contribute 0.67 goals per 60 minutes offensively above replacement level, which is in the bottom third of the league. Most of their offense comes from Hemsky, and very few teams are going into this season with only one or two forwards above that 0.10 threshold.
The challenge for the Oilers is to find the best secondary scorers behind Hemsky. Horcoff and Gagner were the best playmakers last season, while Cogliano and Pisani were the most effective goal-scorers. Scoring was highest with Penner, Horcoff or Pisani on the ice, and lowest with Cogliano. Cogliano and O’Sullivan drew the most penalties, but Pisani was the only Oiler not prone to giveaways. Most likely there are different roles for each of them, and the opportunities will be spread out among these six.
As for the others, Nilsson wasn’t strong offensively in his many opportunities last season but, unlike Moreau, is young enough to develop. It’s not unusual for enforcers like Stortini and MacIntyre to have high time-adjusted scoring, given their limited ice-time, but don’t read too much into it.
Legend:
ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.
QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.
FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.
TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.
HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.
BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.
TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.
Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.
DGVT: Defensive GVT
Player ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP FO% TM% HITS BkS TkA Pen DGVT
O'Sullivan 2.87 6.64 -0.02 41.4 2.1 2.6 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.10
Penner 2.47 9.02 0.00 47.4 2.5 3.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.10
Horcoff 2.46 9.34 0.04 53.9 37.8 1.1 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.07
Pouliot 2.40 5.35 -0.06 48.3 5.7 3.5 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.06
Nilsson 2.59 0.00 -0.03 40.0 0.2 2.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.06
Hemsky 2.68 18.27 0.00 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.06
Gagner 2.65 5.44 -0.04 42.0 15.7 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.05
Moreau 2.42 8.13 0.01 30.6 0.8 6.4 2.1 1.2 2.2 0.04
Minard 2.01 0.00 0.05 100.0 0.1 10.2 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.03
Pisani 2.88 5.90 0.01 40.7 5.6 5.0 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.02
Cogliano 2.72 7.47 -0.04 37.2 14.7 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.00
Stortini 3.20 94.74 -0.13 63.6 0.3 15.0 1.6 0.5 2.1 0.00
Reddox 3.11 9.06 -0.04 44.0 0.9 7.6 2.6 1.1 0.6 -0.08
MacIntyre 2.85 112.50 -0.14 0.0 0.0 15.3 1.4 0.0 3.5 -0.14
Based on their paltry GVT sum of 0.59 defensive value above replacement level per 60 minutes, the Oilers forwards are among the worst in the league defensively. Very few teams are entering the season with so few proven defensive forwards.
Acquiring O’Sullivan and Minard should help complement Penner, as would a bounce-back season and improved discipline from Moreau.
The Oilers are heading into the season with only one true top face-off guy in the established two-way centre Horcoff, despite attempts to develop both Gagner and Cogliano in taking the draw.
Stortini, Reddox and MacIntyre were all defensive liabilities last season, and were used only against weaker opponents. Minard is a better example of a player that can throw hits without taking penalties, while still keeping the puck out of the net. Pisani and Cogliano are also two players that need to improve defensively.
Defensemen:
The Oilers top four defensemen are fantastic, but they lack the depth beyond that. The big four will be among the league’s best offensively, but may find themselves seriously exposed in their own end.
Legend:
Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2008-2009 2009-10 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player Tm P GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT GVT
33 Sheldon Souray EDM D 81 23 30 53 5 9.3 3.2 70 13 32 45 7.4 3.8 11.2
26 Tom Gilbert EDM D 82 5 40 45 6 5.9 3.6 76 8 30 38 5.2 4.2 9.4
26 Denis Grebeshkov EDM D 72 7 32 39 12 5.5 4.9 69 6 24 30 3.7 4.0 7.7
33 Lubomir Visnovsky EDM D 50 8 23 31 9 4.7 3.5 59 7 24 31 4.1 3.1 7.2
36 Steve Staios EDM D 80 2 12 14 -9 -0.6 -0.8 59 2 9 11 0.1 1.7 1.8
22 Taylor Chorney EDM D 2 0 0 0 -4 -0.2 -1.0 28 2 6 7 0.4 0.8 1.1
34 Jason Strudwick EDM D 71 2 7 9 -6 -0.5 -0.4 53 1 5 6 -0.5 1.4 0.9
22 Theo Peckham EDM D 15 0 0 0 -1 -0.8 -0.1 34 1 5 6 -0.2 1.1 0.8
23 Ladislav Smid EDM D 60 0 11 11 -7 -0.1 -0.8 55 1 7 8 -0.6 1.3 0.7
With an expected combined GVT of 38.4 above replacement level, the Oilers should expect to have one of the league’s better sets of defensemen. It’s not unreasonable to expect Sheldon Souray, in particular, to play at the highest level. Edmonton has two full lines of defensemen that can compete with any other teams’ top-four, but they’ll have to hope that not too much damage is done while the third unit is on the ice.
Legend:
ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.
ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.
QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.
GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.
DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
Player ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Souray 0.5 0.9 2.61 1.8 1.7 7.26 0.06 2.7 0.1 0.21
Grebeshkov 0.3 1.1 3.27 0.6 3.3 6.04 0.16 2.5 0.4 0.18
Visnovsky 0.2 0.8 2.61 1.2 2.9 6.20 0.18 2.8 0.5 0.17
Gilbert 0.1 1.1 3.14 0.5 3.5 5.53 0.17 2.3 0.2 0.16
Smid 0.0 0.8 2.05 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.13 2.5 0.6 -0.01
Staios 0.1 0.6 2.16 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.05 2.7 0.6 -0.02
Strudwick 0.2 0.5 2.11 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.19 1.7 0.1 -0.04
Peckham 0.0 0.0 2.47 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.40 4.5 0.0 -0.28
With a combined Offensive GVT of 0.72 above replacement level per 60 minutes, the Oilers can boast having one of the league’s best defensemen offensively. In Souray, Grebeshkov, Visnovsky and Gilbert, they amazingly have four defensemen that scored more than 1.0 even-strength points per 60 minutes. The Oilers averaged well over 3 even-strength goals per 60 minutes with Grebeshkov or Gilbert on the ice. There is, however, only limited potential for scoring beyond those four.
Legend:
ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.
QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.
FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.
TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.
HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.
BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.
TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.
Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.
DGVT: Defensive GVT
Player ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP HITS BkS TkA Pen DGVT
Grebeshkov 2.66 10.24 -0.03 1.8 3.4 1.2 0.7 0.16
Visnovsky 2.20 11.31 -0.01 1.4 4.3 0.9 0.8 0.13
Gilbert 2.88 7.48 0.00 1.6 4.5 1.3 0.4 0.10
Souray 2.57 7.20 0.02 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.2 0.07
Strudwick 2.41 7.48 -0.09 4.9 4.2 1.1 0.7 -0.03
Staios 2.39 9.05 -0.02 3.7 5.9 1.0 1.1 -0.03
Peckham 2.82 0.00 -0.23 7.6 7.2 0.7 2.4 -0.03
Smid 2.48 7.38 -0.05 6.2 3.7 0.9 1.4 -0.05
The combined defensive GVT of 0.46 goals above replacement level per 60 minutes reveals one of Edmonton’s biggest holes. While Grebeshkov is somewhat solid in his own end, the Oilers are just too weak defensively to stop the league’s better offensive teams.
Of the top four, Souray is the one most in need of improvement, taking too many penalties and ranking lowest in blocked shots. The key for the Oilers is to find a couple of defensemen in the rest of the pack that can shut opponents down, Strudwick and Staios being the likeliest candidates.
Goaltending:
The Oilers are pinning their goaltending hopes to Khabibulin, an aging offseason acquisition coming off a hot season. Without a proven backup, Edmonton is expected to finish with goaltending in the bottom third of the league.
Legend:
TGP: Total Games Played is Minutes Played divided by 60.
S/GP: Shots Against per 60 minutes.
ESSV%: Save Percentage at even-strength. Average is around .913.
GVT: Goals Versus Threshold; Value above replacement-level player, in goals.
GVT/GP: GVT per 60 minutes. 0 is replacement-level.
2009-10
VUKOTA
2008-2009 Projection
Age Goalie Team GP TGP S/GP SV% ESSV% GVT GVT/GP GVT
35 Nikolai Khabibulin CHI 42 41.1 29.0 .919 .933 14.3 0.35 5.8
24 Jeff Deslauriers EDM 10 9.0 33.6 .901 .912 -1.4 -0.16 1.2
The 35-year-old Khabibulin was very good with Chicago last year and earned a solid 0.35 GVT/GP, but the VUKOTA system projects he’ll be only a little above average in an Oilers uniform this season. Should he falter, Edmonton’s only recourse is the unproven Deslauriers, who will not be much better than replacement-level.
Legend:
GS: Games Started.
QS: Quality Starts.
WS: Quality Starts that were Wasted (lost) due to lack of offense.
BO: Non-Quality Starts where the goalie was Bailed Out by a good offense.
QS%: Percentage of all starts that were Quality Starts. Over 50% is good.
GR: Games Relieved.
Goalie GS SV% QS WS BO QS% GR MIN SV%
Khabibulin 40 .921 24 3 4 60.0% 2 57 .867
Deslauriers 7 .917 3 0 1 42.9% 3 116 .839
Khabibulin played well enough to give the Hawks a chance to win about 60% of the time, and the Hawks rarely wasted it. Hopefully he’ll be as fortunate as an Oiler.
Other Players:
The Oilers have a handful of players that could contribute next season, including two potential 20-goal centers in Minard and Potulny. Beyond those two Edmonton has a handful of players who are right at the age (22-24) where significant development can occur.
All statistics translated to NHL Equivalent
Age Pos Player Lge GP G A PTS
25 C Ryan Potulny AHL 80 17 14 31
28 C Chris Minard AHL 75 16 12 28
23 C Rob Schremp AHL 75 3 18 21 (RFA)
22 C Gilbert Brule AHL 51 8 6 14
22 D Theo Peckham AHL 63 3 6 9
22 D Taylor Chorney AHL 72 2 7 9
24 LW Jean-Francois Jacques AHL 15 1 2 3
Shootout:
Don’t expect the Oilers to go 6-4 again this season in the shootout. They’ve lost Kotalik, one of the best shootout artists in the league, and in the net they’ve replaced Roloson, who was the 7th best shootout goalie in the league last season with a save percentage of .792, with Khabibulin, who stopped only 10 of 19 (.526). Deslauriers stopped all three shots in his only shootout, so perhaps there’s more potential when he’s in goal.
The Oilers still have five shooters that score at least 33% of the time in O’Sullivan, Gagner, Nilsson, Hemsky and Pouliot, so they should still manage to break even on shootouts.
Special Teams:
The Oilers were in the bottom third of the league both on the power play (17.0%) and in killing penalties (77.5%). Their power play should improve, but their penalty killing might slide right to the bottom of the league.
Up front, Hemsky leads the Oilers in power play points with 6.1 per 60 minutes, and scoring was 2nd highest with him on the ice. Scoring was only higher with Penner, but he contributed less than half of the scoring as Hemsky. Horcoff and Nilsson were both solid, which should earn the latter more power play time this season, possibly at the expense of O’Sullivan, who contributed very little despite ample opportunities. Gagner and Cogliano could continue to see some time if they show some improvement. The Oilers have no shortage of weapons on defense, as any of the big four produce up to or around 4 points per 60 minutes. Very few teams are that strong on the point with the man advantage.
Horcoff and Moreau struggled with killing penalties last season, which might lead to greater opportunities for O’Sullivan and Pisani, and maybe another look for Pouliot or Gagner. On defense Grebeshkov and Staios struggled the most, which might lead the Oilers to lean more on Souray, Gilbert and maybe Strudwick, however mediocre they may have been.
Overall:
We expect the increased offense to offset the decreased defense, and leave the Oilers right where they were last season. They’ll be 2nd to last in their division, in the bottom third, a handful of points out of the playoffs.
Season GF/G GA/G PTS
2008-09 2.78 2.98 85
2009-10 2.97 3.10 85
We calculate Edmonton has only a 36.6% chance of making the playoffs, and only a 0.9% chance of earning their 6th Stanley Cup.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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