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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 207 (28th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 223 (T-25th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 234 (T-17th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 247 (17th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 79 (T-25th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 84 (25th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 27 (24th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 19 (25th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.75 (26th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.98 (T-17th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.23 (25th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 36.8 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 14.1 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 5.2 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 1.8 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.6 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
How you perceive the Los Angeles Kings really depends on when you became a hockey fan. Most people tuned in around the time Wayne Gretzky started hosting Saturday Night Live and remember the 1993 Stanley Cup run along with jokes about putting a midget in goal holding a piece of plexiglass. One guy I play hockey with grew up watching their training camp in Victoria, B.C., and is still fixated on that phenomenal 1974-75 team that ran about as far as you could with Rogie Vachon and no offense. As for myself? I remember them as the team with the purple uniforms that couldn’t break out of the Smythe Division basement in the early 1980s.
However, it’s students of more recent history we have to deal with, because recently, the Kings have been California’s weakest team, missing the playoffs the last six seasons. Over the last three seasons, they’ve been the 3rd- or 4th-worst team in the league, and due to a lot of bad luck, they’ve posted by far the worst record in the NHL.
On the other hand, the Kings have a better near-term forecast than some of their compatriots at the bottom of the league, most of whom figure to be on the seven-year plan. Certainly nothing in Los Angeles compares to the disasters in Phoenix or Tampa, and the Kings are further along in their recovery than the Islanders (or Atlanta, Colorado and Toronto for that matter). A Phoenix Coyotes fan could only wish that his team had Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty or Jack Johnson in the lineup or that they’d picked up Rob Scuderi or Ryan Smyth in the offseason. This is not to say that the Kings should expect to make a playoff run this year – VUKOTA puts them 25th, while Vegas pegs them at 23rd – they’ve got the kind of upside that suggests you should take the over and not the under.
Statistical Summary
Legend:
TOI: Time On Ice
SF/60: Shots For per 60 Minutes
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 Minutes
TOI Rank SF/60 Rank SA/60 Rank
5v5 44.5 29 28.0 21 27.9 23
5v4 6.7 9 50.1 13 6.9 25
4v5 7.2 4 8.0 19 43.6 29
4v4 2.0 12 34.1 11 32.2 15
Looking at this table, it’s not clear why the Kings were such a bad team last year. They’re solid defensively 5-on-5, which you might expect from a Terry Murray-coached team, but they were victimized by an atrociously low – and unsustainable – shooting percentage on offense. They took a ton of penalties but played effective PK defense and drew a ton of offsetting penalties thanks to Dustin Brown. There’s no good reason their offense should have been 28th in the league…but it was.
Sometimes you just have to accept that even though you put together the right process or the right team, things didn’t go your way. The most likely outcome last season was a vastly better one than what the Kings got. Our projections can’t tell bad luck from good and underestimate the Kings as a result.
Even-Strength Defense:
The Kings defense wasn’t terrible last year, though the loss of Jack Johnson for half the season pushed Kyle Quincey into a role that exceeded his abilities to some extent. Swapping him out for Rob Scuderi, one of the league’s-best defensive defensemen, eases the load on Johnson and Drew Doughty and pushes the Kings D into the top half in the league.
Even-Strength Offense:
There’s no question that the Kings have six good forwards. Anze Kopitar remains both the best Slovenian player ever and the best pick in the 2005 Entry Draft. His scoring will rebound this year, and he has the ability to put 40 goals on the board. Dustin Brown combines prolific penalty-drawing abilities with thirty-goal hands even against other teams’ top lines. Ryan Smyth, regardless of his contract, remains a go-to guy with both defensive skills and a scoring touch. Alexander Frolov, Michal Handzus and Wayne Simmonds form a solid second line, and then…well, who knows? Justin Williams hasn’t been able to stay healthy or produce away from the PP for several years. Coach Murray didn’t use Jarret Stoll – despite his past life as a defensive forward in Edmonton – and Kyle Calder against top opponents, but Oscar Moller, Brad Richardson and Ted Purcell didn’t get those matchups either. Brayden Schenn, this year’s #5 pick in Montreal, is unlikely to step directly into a prime-time role like his brother did in Toronto.
The bottom line is this: somebody – preferable a young player or two – has to step up defensively to bridge the gap between the 2nd and 4th lines.
Goaltending:
Goaltending is neither a weakness nor a strength for the Kings. They were average in goal last season, and with Erik Ersberg and Jon Quick returning, they figure to be average yet again. Of course, the devil is in the details: the salary the Kings pay for their average goaltending is well below-average. Not being stuck with an under-performing Miikka Kiprusoff-type frees up cash to improve other parts of the lineup.
Power-Play:
Billy Beane once had Billy Koch in his bullpen. Koch might not have been the best pitcher, but Beane knew how to utilize his talent. He used him in situations where he could rack up the best stats, while using better pitchers in game situations that mattered more. Then he traded him for far more than he was worth and his team got better despite detractors claiming he had sold Koch because of financial reasons. The Kings just did this with Kyle Quincey: they picked him up on waivers; they showcased his offense-first talents on the PP while sheltering him at even-strength; they benefited from his resulting scoring peak; then they sold him high to Colorado; and they will not suffer as a result.
The Kings were actually very good on the PP last year, in no small part due to Dustin Brown drawing so many power-plays. Again, there’s no question that they have the forwards to score on the man-advantage. On another team, losing Quincey, who played almost half of the Kings’ PP time, might leave you wondering who would step up to be the #2 point man on the power-play. But Quincey proved that this isn’t as big of an issue as you might think: as with relief pitchers, you can find an offense-first guy on waivers and turn him into a high-scoring power-play defenseman just by giving him the opportunity to play. That #2 spot might easily fall to Peter Harrold, a healthy Johnson, or 20-year-old Thomas Hickey, with no loss in production.
Penalty-Kill:
The Kings’ defensemen took an absurd number of penalties last year, but the team was effective on the penalty kill, which resulted in 7.2 minutes of PK time per game, almost tops in the league. O’Donnell, Doughty and Greene drew a lot of defensive ice time along with Denis Gauthier, who found himself way down the depth chart and in the press box the rest of the time. At forward, Handzus, Frolov and Stoll killed the bulk of the penalties, with Stoll impressively allowing just six goals over 166 minutes while down a man. Adding Scuderi to the mix will make sure the penalty-killing remains a strength.
Roster:
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Anze Kopitar F 22 82.0 30.7 43.2 73.9 10.4 3.1 0.0 13.5
Alexander Frolov F 27 78.3 27.1 32.7 59.9 8.2 3.5 -0.1 11.6
Dustin Brown F 25 78.8 25.5 29.9 55.5 6.1 2.7 0.0 8.8
Ryan Smyth F 33 72.4 20.2 28.5 48.7 4.8 2.4 0.0 7.2
Jarret Stoll F 27 70.7 16.0 21.8 37.8 2.9 2.1 0.0 5.0
Michal Handzus F 32 73.7 12.8 18.6 31.5 1.4 2.6 0.0 3.9
Oscar Moller F 20 50.4 10.6 12.6 23.2 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.6
Teddy Purcell F 24 47.4 7.6 13.2 20.8 1.2 1.2 -0.1 2.3
Justin Williams F 28 48.8 7.6 13.6 21.3 1.1 1.2 0.0 2.3
Wayne Simmonds F 21 70.5 9.6 14.1 23.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.2
Trevor Lewis F 22 31.0 6.1 8.2 14.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.9
Brandon Segal F 26 27.5 4.7 5.9 10.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2
Kevin Westgarth F 25 30.8 4.4 5.5 9.8 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9
Brad Richardson F 24 40.5 4.2 7.6 11.8 -0.3 0.7 0.0 0.5
John Zeiler F 27 38.0 3.0 4.2 7.1 -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.2
Raitis Ivanans F 30 55.2 2.3 0.7 3.1 -1.9 0.4 0.0 -1.6
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Drew Doughty D 20 77.8 7.2 22.9 30.1 2.7 4.7 0.0 7.4
Rob Scuderi D 31 62.1 2.1 11.6 13.7 0.1 4.1 0.0 4.2
Matt Greene D 26 69.6 1.8 9.3 11.1 -0.4 4.3 0.0 3.9
Sean O'Donnell D 38 65.1 1.0 7.9 8.9 -0.6 4.0 0.0 3.4
Peter Harrold D 26 56.6 2.9 8.1 11.0 0.5 1.7 0.0 2.2
Davis Drewiske D 25 36.3 1.6 6.4 8.0 0.3 1.7 0.0 2.1
Jack Johnson D 22 47.9 3.8 8.4 12.1 0.4 1.2 -0.1 1.5
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Jonathan Quick G 23 42.7 8.2 0.2 8.4
Erik Ersberg G 27 26.5 1.8 -0.2 1.6
Outlook:
Maybe it’s just because I've been reviewing the other bottom teams, but the Kings just don’t look like the worst team in the league to me. They’ve got two good forward lines, solid defense, underrated goaltending and a ton of good, young players who could have an impact at the NHL level. It’s possible they’ll regress defensively and be no better than they were last year – gambling men seem to think so – but they certainly look like a team poised to get out of the cellar.
Gabriel Desjardins is an author of Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey site behindthenet.ca. You can contact him at info at behindthenet.ca. | 
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