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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 226 (21st on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 230 (21st on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 230 (9th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 240 (T-8th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 92 (T-15th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 89 (19th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 4 (18th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 4 (T-18th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.83 (21st on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.90 (T-8th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.07 (19th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 45.4 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 19.5 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 8.2 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 3.4 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 1.3 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
For the first time since their inception in 2000, the Columbus Blue Jackets made the postseason in the Western Conference. While Columbus has a plethora of young talent in Rick Nash, R.J. Umberger, Fedor Tyutin and Steve Mason, a second consecutive playoff appearance could prove difficult considering they play in the same division as Chicago, Detroit and St. Louis. As with many teams already previewed this offseason, the Blue Jackets kept their roster intact for the most part and will be returning the same squad that finished 7th in the Western Conference last year. The only additions with a potential impact are Samuel Pahlsson and Mathieu Garon, while subtractions included Manny Malhotra, Michael Peca, Christian Backman, Chris Gratton and Jiri Novotny.
GM Scott Howson has built this team up successfully and in a few years, they could be hosting postseason games at the Nationwide Arena deep into May. This is clearly not the same expansion team that other teams loved to play against several years ago because it would have been an easy two points. The Blue Jackets are now a team that on any given night could defeat elite-level teams in the NHL thanks to their continuously improving talent.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Rick Nash F 25 82.0 35.7 40.4 76.2 12.3 3.8 0.0 16.2
Kristian Huselius F 31 70.6 20.0 32.6 52.5 5.9 2.2 0.0 8.2
R.J. Umberger F 27 72.2 22.7 24.7 47.4 5.8 2.4 0.0 8.1
Antoine Vermette F 27 70.2 17.3 23.8 41.1 4.5 2.3 -0.2 6.6
Jakub Voracek F 20 72.9 12.4 28.0 40.4 3.2 2.6 0.0 5.8
Derick Brassard F 22 46.9 12.5 17.6 30.1 3.6 1.7 0.0 5.3
Jason Chimera F 30 59.6 10.2 15.2 25.4 1.4 2.0 0.0 3.4
Fredrik Modin F 35 50.2 9.1 14.0 23.1 1.6 1.3 0.0 2.9
Raffi Torres F 28 49.3 10.4 11.5 21.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 2.8
Nikita Filatov F 19 31.3 7.1 6.4 13.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.1
Maxim Mayorov F 20 29.4 5.5 6.8 12.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4
Derek MacKenzie F 28 28.9 4.7 5.6 10.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0
Andrew Murray F 28 55.1 7.0 5.3 12.3 -0.3 1.0 0.0 0.7
Samuel Pahlsson F 32 53.2 6.5 9.3 15.7 -0.3 1.0 0.0 0.7
Pascal Pelletier F 26 29.2 4.4 5.5 9.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6
Jared Boll F 23 60.6 4.9 7.8 12.8 -1.1 0.8 0.0 -0.3
Derek Dorsett F 23 50.7 5.2 3.8 9.0 -1.2 0.8 0.0 -0.4
Rick Nash, the face of the franchise for Columbus, is one of the best all-around forwards in the game. Luckily for the people of Ohio, he signed an 8 year, $62.4 million extension that won't even begin taking effect until next season. The 25 year old captain posted a remarkable 18.8 GVT last year, along with 40 goals, 39 assists and 79 points. While VUKOTA see's a dropoff for Nash, he's only projected for a 2.6 decline in GVT, which still leaves him with outstanding numbers, including 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points and a 16.2 GVT. The right winger finished last season with an average of 21:09 minutes per game of ice time and should be in the top five for ice time again this season. The first line will go as far as the first overall selection in 2002 will take them.
Kristian Huselius is another pivotal cog in the first line for the Central Division team. If the 30 year old left winger improves slightly on his 7.2 GVT, as well as his 21 goals, 35 assists 56 points from last year, then the Canon in Columbus will be firing more often at the end of games than it has been in past years. VUKOTA sees a marginal decline in offensive value and a slight increase in defensive value, meaning that he's unlikely to produce any differently than he has over the last two seasons. It's safe to say that his two outstanding seasons in Calgary appear to be behind him. The downside to the Swedish forward is that he's not known as a playoff performer, with the latest disaster being a lengthy scoreless postseason drought that ended in Game 4 against the Detroit Red Wings last season. Given that the postseason is a small sample size and that each postseason performance has not affected his following season, this shouldn't be much of a problem. If he get's another shot at a postseason in Columbus, he'll likely make the most of it. The 6'1 southpaw averaged 19:31 minutes per game last season and should get relatively the same time on the ice per game this season.
The final player on the first line at center is last year's Columbus rookie Derick Brassard. The Blue Jackets were so confident in his high end skills and potential to man the point on the power play, that they let Manny Malhotra walk as an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The recent recipient of a 4 year, $13 million contract extension that kicks in next season started off his promising 2008-09 rookie season with 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points and a 6.5 GVT. In a fight with fellow rookie James Neal of the Stars, the 6th overall pick in 2006 dislocated his shoulder, which effectively ended his season. VUKOTA doesn't expect this season to be much different than last year for the Columbus center mainly in part because it doesn't believe that he'll be fully recovered from the shoulder injury until next season. A line of 13 goals, 18 assists, 30 points and a 5.3 GVT isn't bad for playing half of a season, and if he can stay healthy, his prorated statitics for 82 games indicate that he would be the second best forward on the team with a line of 22 goals, 31 assists, 53 points and a GVT of 9.3. If Brassard can stay healthy, the Blue Jackets might find themselves beating VUKOTA's projection and could find themselves back in the postseason picture.
The second line for the Blue Jackets this year will consist of left winger R.J. Umberger and center Antoine Vermette, with the 2007 7th overall selection Jakub Voracek and the talented Nikita Filatov in competition to join those two as the right winger. Umberger has the greatest projected improvement on the Columbus roster from a GVT of 4.8 last season to a GVT of 8.1 this season. Combined with the fact that Umberger played more effectively when Vermette came over from Ottawa, and it might not matter who plays on the second line beside them. While starting Filatov on the second line is tempting, Voracek is an all-around better player, who has more upside than Filatov. Voracek, who excelled in the QMJHL, should be the better bet going forward, and should help the second line be even more productive than it was last season.
The composition of the third and fourth lines is still up in the air. Based on the start of training camp, the third line as of now appears to be Jason Chimera, Fredrik Modin and Samuel Pahlsson. Blue Jackets coach Ken Hitchcock is hoping that the third line can shut down the opposition with a more defensive style of play, though he would like to see some offense generated from the third unit. If Pahlsson is a part of this line, it's doubtful that there will be much in the way of offense. The majority of fourth line candidates, such as Andrew Murray, Derek MacKenzie, Jared Boll and Derek Dorsett are currently replacement level players, though these players range in upside going forward.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Fedor Tyutin D 26 72.9 6.2 21.5 27.7 2.1 4.7 0.1 6.9
Jan Hejda D 31 73.5 2.5 13.6 16.1 0.4 5.5 0.0 5.9
Mike Commodore D 30 67.0 3.8 14.7 18.6 1.3 3.9 0.0 5.2
Marc Methot D 24 61.9 3.9 12.9 16.8 1.2 3.5 0.0 4.7
Rostislav Klesla D 27 55.2 3.0 11.3 14.2 0.7 3.2 0.0 4.0
Kris Russell D 22 61.2 4.0 15.4 19.4 1.1 2.2 0.0 3.4
The 26 year old Feder Tyutin is one of the many reasons why the Blue Jackets project to be in the top ten on defense this year. The former New York Rangers' defensemen brought a solid 6.7 GVT last year, which included a 4.6 defensive GVT as well as 34 points on offense. This year VUKOTA expects the Blue Jackets best all-around defensemen to be slightly better overall with a 6.9 GVT, as well as a 4.7 defensive GVT, but with only 28 points on offense this year. The Russia native will need to block additional shots this year along with receiving ome help from first pair teammate Rostislav Klesla in order to keep Steve Mason fresh enough to beat out his VUKOTA projection of a 11.1 GVT, which is nonetheless impressive. If Klesla finds himself catching the injury bug again this year, Marc Methot could find some time on the ice in the first pairing.
The second pairing returns for another season, which is led by the 29 year old right hander Mike Commodore. The Canadian born Commodore is neither as good offensively nor defensively as his second pair counterpart Jan Hejda, but he's certainly still an adequate defensive option for Ken Hitchcock on the second unit. The former draft pick of the New Jersey Devils is projected to see his defensive GVT drop from 5.6 to 3.9, which could lead to additional problems for Steve Mason, so there's a chance that by the end of the season, Hejda will find himself playing more often with Marc Methot, but this is still a very unlikely scenario. Expect Commodore to recieve near his 22:53 minutes of ice time per game, and Hejda to get his 22:22 minutes of ice time per game this upcoming season. The second defensive pairing should also play a major role in killing penalties again this season.
The 22 year old Kris Russell is a solid puck-moving defenseman, but he's not likely to have a significant impact on either side of the ice for at least the next couple of seasons. Methot can fill in on either of the first two defensive pairings if either Klesla re-injures himself or Commodore or Hejda struggle in the early part of the season on the second line, though coach Hitchcock wouldn't likely take away penalty killing time from either of those two.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Steve Mason G 21 56.4 10.8 0.3 11.1
Mathieu Garon G 31 25.6 2.3 0.5 2.9
Dan LaCosta G 23 16.5 2.7 0.0 2.7
The Calder trophy winner is clearly the number one goaltender on this team, and barring injury, he should get the large majority of starts. Last season, Mason posted a 16.2 GVT, which was second on Columbus, and a .916 save percentage in 61.1 games played. The Canadian born Mason also had 34 quality starts in 61 starts for a .557 quality start percentage. If the 21 year old goaltender has a sophomore slump and/or misses signifcant playing time due to injury at some point in the season, the Blue Jackets will be at risk of going into a free fall, given their options behind Mason.
Special Teams:
Last season, the Blue Jackets ranked last in the NHL on the power play with a - 27.7 GVT, while they were tied for thirteenth on the penalty kill with a 2.8 GVT. Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius and Fedor Tyutin should be expected to remain the big forces on the power play. As for the penalty killing unit, the second pairing defensive combo of Mike Commodore and Jan Hejda should continue to get the bulk of minutes because of their success last season. If Commodore and Hejda ended up with four minutes of ice time per game on the penalty kill, it would not be surprising.
Conclusion:
The Blue Jackets are a promising team with a lot of talent, but it will be a tall order to make it to their second consecutive postseason with three teams in the Central Division that are better than them. Sophomore Derick Brassard can help the offense beat their VUKOTA projection on the offensive side of the puck if he can stay healthy, while Rostislav Klesla can help the defense beat their VUKOTA projection if he stays healthy. Even with the scenario that this team stays relatively injury-free throughout the year, they shouldn't be expected to grab anything higher than a sixth seed in the Western Conference. Still, back to back postseason berths could mean the start of a new era in Columbus hockey.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
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