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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 239 (16th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 241 (T-13th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 226 (8th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 244 (T-14th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 97 (11th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 91 (T-12th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 13 (12th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 0 (T-14th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.96 (14th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.96 (16th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.00 (T-12th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 59.2 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 27.0 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 11.8 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 4.9 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 2.1 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Was last season’s run to the third round a fluke, or are the Hurricanes primed to carry that momentum into next season? That is the question floating around the minds of hockey fans in North Carolina. Last season, the Hurricanes struggled through the first half of the season, but after a coaching change and the re-acquisition of Erik Cole, the team took off and did not stop its momentum until running into the eventual Stanley Cup champion Penguins in the Eastern Conference final.
Let’s take a look at the Hurricanes heading into 2009-10 to see if another Cinderella run is in store.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Eric Staal F 25 81.4 37.8 41.1 78.9 12.5 3.7 -0.1 16.2
Ray Whitney F 37 66.3 19.8 37.3 57.1 7.4 2.1 0.0 9.6
Matt Cullen F 33 62.2 16.6 23.8 40.4 5.0 2.4 0.0 7.3
Tuomo Ruutu F 26 70.8 18.3 25.0 43.2 3.8 2.4 0.1 6.3
Sergei Samsonov F 31 65.5 15.8 24.9 40.6 3.8 2.0 0.0 5.8
Chad LaRose F 27 65.1 15.7 17.0 32.7 3.3 2.4 0.0 5.7
Erik Cole F 31 66.8 15.8 23.7 39.5 3.3 2.0 0.0 5.3
Rod Brind'Amour F 39 61.1 12.9 25.1 38.0 3.4 1.5 0.0 4.9
Jussi Jokinen F 26 61.4 13.5 21.1 34.6 3.0 1.4 0.1 4.5
Scott Walker F 36 48.7 8.2 14.2 22.4 1.6 1.1 0.0 2.8
Tom Kostopoulos F 30 60.8 7.6 11.3 18.9 0.3 1.3 0.0 1.6
Steven Goertzen F 25 34.4 5.7 7.0 12.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.3
Zach Boychuk F 20 29.3 5.6 6.9 12.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3
Patrick Dwyer F 26 33.5 4.8 6.0 10.8 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0
Michael Ryan F 29 37.3 4.2 5.9 10.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5
Brandon Sutter F 20 51.5 3.7 6.9 10.6 -1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
The Hurricanes are led up front by Eric Staal. The oldest member of the new-age hockey family, Staal possesses great speed, puck-handling skills, shooting ability and a strong work ethic. In 2008-09, Staal led the Canes in points-per-60 even strength minutes accumulating a 2.32 total. While he is quite proficient at even strength, he also finished second on the team with 24 power play points. The scariest part of Staal’s game is that he is only 24 years old and, yet, he has already amassed 358 career points. VUKOTA projects that success to continue as the projection system has Staal slated to post 79 points and a 16.2 GVT in 2009-10.
Helping out Staal in the points department is the seemingly ageless Ray Whitney. Whitney, 37 years old, continues to post impressive point totals, even into the latter part of his career. In fact, Whitney has posted just under a point-per-game (0.97) over the past three NHL seasons. One of the reasons for Whitney’s continued production is his ability to find spots on the ice and use his above-average hockey sense to his advantage. Whitney is not the most fleet of foot, but he has a terrific shot and good awareness. Additionally, he excels on the man-advantage, sometimes on the half-boards where he sets up shop and other times at the point where he can release his dangerous one-timer. While VUKOTA has a setback season in store for Whitney, with the winger projected to post 58 points and a 9.6 GVT, many people have been expecting a fall-off in points for Whitney and he continues to prove them wrong. So, I would not be surprised if Whitney exceeds those totals.
Along with Staal and Whitney, the Hurricanes have a lot of players that are not very dominating offensively, but contribute just as well. The reacquisition of Erik Cole seemed to spark the team down the stretch last season. Sure Cole had his struggles to close out the season and was fairly invisible during the playoffs, but he still brings a great energy and work ethic to the club. His speed is tremendous but his hands are not in the same class. That said, combine his defensive awareness, physical play and offensive game and you have a very productive forward. VUKOTA projects 40 points in 67 games for Cole next season.
Matt Cullen does not get much press but his production for the Hurricanes is always quite solid. He had a quiet 22 goals last season, only four of which were on the power play and finished the season at +11. Additionally, he won face-offs at a 51.7% clip, so he adds to the team in many ways. He is not overly physical, but his hockey smarts and ability to play the point on the power play, as well as his ability to kill penalties are reasons as to why he will be such a valuable asset to Paul Maurice. VUKOTA has Cullen producing a 17 goal season and a more than respectable 7.3 GVT.
Next, we have Sergei Samsonov. Samsonov played just over 17:00 minutes per game last season and logged over 3:00 minutes of power play per game. His skills are clearly in the puck handling and hockey smarts department, as his shot is lacking and his size, while it helps him in the leverage department, generally holds him back from winning strength battles. He did tally 48 points last season but posted only 1.53 points-per-60 minutes of even strength ice-time. Combine that with his poor defensive play and Samsonov is not someone the Canes will be relying on to take them to the next level.
A player the Hurricanes used to rely on to take the team to the next level is Rod Brind’Amour. One of the more underrated players of his generation, Brind’Amour finally saw his age catch up to him last season. Even though he is in phenomenal physical condition, the Ottawa native posted a poor (for him) 51 points in 80 games last season. What was most surprising, was that Brind’Amour—a great defensive player throughout his career—somehow posted a horrible +/- rating of -23 (worst on the team by 14 points). He was almost a point-per-game player the three seasons prior to 2008-09, so it is possible he could bounce back, but at 39 years old, it is hard to predict. One thing is for certain, he will be tremendous in the face-off circle (61% last season). VUKOTA projects another slow offensive season for Brind’Amour and it is difficult to argue with that.
Another veteran on the Canes’ forward lines is Scott Walker. After a tumultuous season off the ice (Walker’s wife was fighting cancer), Walker most likely needed the mental break from the grind of the hockey season. His value was extremely low during the regular season (0.3 GVT) but his play picked up in the playoffs. At 36 years old, you know what to expect from Walker. He will play a physical game, not back down in the corners and stick up for his teammates. For a depth winger, Walker has pretty nice hands too. So, he serves his role well and is a well-liked teammate in the dressing room.
The Hurricanes are not all old veteran players, as we have yet to mention the rugged Tuomo Ruutu. Ruutu, acquired in a trade for Andrew Ladd, really came into his own last season in Carolina. The Finnish center finished (no pun intended) the season with 26 goals (ten of which came on the power play) and earned more trust with Paul Maurice as the season went on. Ruutu is oft-injured, but he played in 79 games last season. Whether his style (he plays a very rugged game) can hold up over the course of another full season is questionable. Although VUKOTA, which is generally pretty cautious in terms of its games played predictions, has him slated to play 71 games. If that is the case, Canes fans will be very happy with his output.
In last season’s playoffs, many national hockey fans were able to see the true value of a player like Chad LaRose. LaRose spent significant time on the number one line with Eric Staal and was all over the ice. He was persistent, not intimidated by anybody and flashed some nice offensive skill. He was second on the team in scoring in the playoffs (11 points) and saw his ice-time increase over his regular season totals. After some contract negotiating trouble, the two sides came to a reasonable new agreement (two seasons at $1.7 million per cap hit) and the 27 year old should continue to take a step forward with some new found confidence. VUKOTA sees LaRose scoring 16 goals in 2009-10 and posting a 5.7 GVT.
Before moving to the team’s defense, we would be remiss if we did not talk about Jussi Jokinen. Last season’s playoff hero for Carolina came over midseason from Tampa Bay and proved to the Bolts that they made a mistake letting him go. He scored seven playoff goals and three of those goals were of the game winning variety. The 26 year old Finnish forward is versatile, as he can play the wing or center and showed a desire to play in pressure situations. Jokinen is a good skater with good hands in close, as well he posseses some good face-off skills (58.3 winning percentage); so, the Hurricanes coaching staff certainly has use for a player of his multiple talents.
Rounding out the team’s fourth line should be the likes of Stephane Yelle and Tom Kostopolous. Yelle is a grizzled veteran who has little to no offensive game but can kill penalties, and win face-offs (52%). Kostopolous plays a bang and crash game and is not afraid to stick up for his teammates and mix it up in the corners. With the Hurricanes having many young players that will eventually be important cogs in the lineup—Zach Boychuk, Brandon Sutter, Drayson Bowman—Jim Rutherford has brought in many veterans to give the youngsters some time to develop, pressure-free, at the lower levels.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Joe Corvo D 32 68.9 9.6 28.5 38.1 5.5 4.5 0.0 10.0
Joni Pitkanen D 26 68.6 7.0 25.3 32.3 3.6 4.9 0.0 8.4
Tim Gleason D 26 64.1 2.6 12.8 15.4 0.4 3.6 0.0 4.1
Aaron Ward D 36 56.1 2.6 9.1 11.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 3.1
Niclas Wallin D 34 52.7 1.6 6.9 8.5 -0.4 2.1 0.0 1.7
Casey Borer D 24 29.6 1.9 5.8 7.6 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.5
Bryan Rodney D 25 31.0 1.7 6.4 8.1 0.3 1.1 0.0 1.4
Jay Harrison D 27 29.8 1.5 5.5 7.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.3
Brett Carson D 24 28.8 1.6 5.1 6.7 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.1
Tim Conboy D 27 38.6 1.1 4.4 5.5 -0.2 1.3 0.0 1.1
The Hurricanes are led on the back-end by two terrific puck-movers.
Joe Corvo came over from Ottawa and has really found a home in North Carolina. The American born defenseman is a terrific skater and makes an excellent first pass. Moreover, he is a proficient power play performer (8 power play goals and 14 power play assists) and plays over 24:00 minutes per game. While he leads the team in power play ice-time (4:30 minutes per game in 2008-09), he also played 2:01 minutes per game on the penalty kill. That said, Corvo still lacks strong defensive skills, as he can get caught out of position and gets beaten often along the boards. Overall his strengths outweigh his weaknesses and VUKOTA has him posting a very good GVT of 10.
Joining Corvo on defense is another terrific puck mover. Joni Pitkanen was certainly not a fan favorite in Edmonton but he has found a home in Carolina. In 2008-09, Pitkanen logged just under 25:00 minutes per game (4:02 on power play and 1:51 on the penalty kill), and really shined in the playoffs logging big minutes (26:28 minutes per game) as well as leading the team’s defense in points (8). For all the criticism thrown towards Pitkanen for his wandering ways all around the ice, few defensemen can skate and move the puck like the Finnish defender. Sure he has his moments, but if he is so awful defensively, then why have defensively conscious coaches like Ken Hitchcock, Craig MacTavish and Paul Maurice had so much trust in him over the years? VUKOTA projects a 32 point season and a very solid GVT of 8.4 for Pitkanen in 2009-10.
While the focus of the team’s best offensive defensemen is usually on Corvo and Pitkanen, Tim Gleason also plays a vital role on defense. The American defenseman played over 20:00 minutes per game last season and led the team in penalty killing ice-time per contest (2:47 minutes). Gleason is sturdy on his skates (6’1, 215 pounds) and is not afraid to throw his weight around (171 hits led the team’s defense). Further, he blocks shots (his 133 blocked shots was second on the team) and will drop the gloves when he deems fit. His importance to the Hurricanes should not be understated just because he does not post high offensive totals.
Returning to Carolina this season will be former Hurricanes defenseman Aaron Ward. Ward signed with the New York Rangers after Carolina defeated Edmonton to win the Stanley Cup in 2006 and, just like Matt Cullen, found his way back “home”. Some worry that Ward’s return to North Carolina will be awkward for the dressing room because Scott Walker knocked him out with a punch the last time they met in the playoffs, but that is water under the bridge. Ward played 19:00 minutes a game last season for Boston and will help the Canes fill the ice-time that belonged to Dennis Seidenberg and Anton Babchuk last season. He is no dynamo in the offensive zone, but his defensive awareness, championship experience and veteran influence should help the Hurricanes. His 151 hits and 124 blocked shots in 2008-09 should not hurt either.
Another rock on the Canes’ back-end is Niclas Wallin. Wallin does not have the responsibility he once did in Carolina, but the 34 year old defenseman is still capable of playing 16:00-17:00 minutes per game. The Swedish rearguard does not look to create much offense but is sound positionally and takes away passing/shooting lanes very well.
Filling out the final spot on the team’s back-end should be summer signee Andrew Alberts. Alberts comes over from the Flyers where he played in 79 games last season. He is a big defender (6’4, 220 pounds) and led the Flyers’ entire team in hits with 157. As well, he recorded 133 blocked shots (second on the team), so the reason for his signing is evident—the Canes want to balance the top offensive defensemen with the physical, shot-blocking defenders filling out the bottom few spots.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Cam Ward G 25 57.3 9.6 -0.2 9.4
Michael Leighton G 28 22.0 0.8 -0.3 0.5
The Hurricanes have little to worry about in between the pipes provided Cam Ward stays healthy. With the Olympics coming up in February and Ward coming into a contract season, big things are expected from the former Red Deer Rebel. As solid as he was during the regular season (.916 save percentage), his play down the stretch and into the playoffs is probably the primary reason Carolina made it all the way into the third round. The best part about Ward’s game is that he has improved each of the past three seasons in the save percentage department, so good things should continue to be expected for the 25 year old netminder.
Backing up Ward will be long time AHL goaltender Michael Leighton. It is hard to root against a player with the work ethic and persistence of Leighton. After being around the NHL and AHL, Leighton seems to have found a home, at least for the time being, in Carolina. His .901 save percentage was serviceable, but if Ward goes down for any prolonged time, the Hurricanes are in deep, deep trouble.
Special Teams:
The Hurricanes were 18th in terms of power play percentage last season, although the team did draw the most penalties and saw the most power plays out of any team in the NHL. So, with increased focus on the power play—which is the word out of Carolina—a slight improvement in this regard could mean a couple more points in the standings.
The team’s penalty killing was 19th overall in terms of percentage last season, so that area can also use some work. That lower ranking is rather surprising considering the team’s proficiency in the face-off circle. With Alberts, Ward and Gleason blocking shots there is room for improvement.
Conclusion:
The Hurricanes have a good core of young players in the system, but make no mistake, the average age of this team is over 30 years old, which very much makes this a win now team. With a superstar forward up front, strong puck movers on defense and a sensational goalie, anything is possible. However, with teams like Washington, Pittsburgh and Boston in the Eastern Conference, it will be difficult to once again reach the final four.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve. | 
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