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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 244 (15th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 237 (T-18th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 209 (4th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 240 (T-8th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 106 (5th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 93 (T-10th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 35 (5th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 5 (11th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.94 (T-15th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.88 (T-6th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.06 (11th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 55.4 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 26.1 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 12.1 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 5.3 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 2.4 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
The breakdown of many teams begins with the players. For the New Jersey Devils, it begins with management and coaching. If you were looking at any other team that was letting go of the likes of Brian Gionta without any proven replacement, you would wonder about the organization’s plan, but GM Lou Lamoriello is way past the point of being questioned on his player moves, and this year, it’s not just about Lamoriello. With no championships since 2002-03–in fact with only two postseason series wins since 2002-03–it was time to turn to an old friend, Jacques Lemaire, after the fortuitous departure of coach Brent Sutter. Lemaire’s teams are synonymous with defense, defenses that make their goalies look good, by cutting down shots faced and shot quality. Now we’ll see if the reunion of the GM and the coach can return the Devils to glory.
New Jersey Devils - Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Zach Parise 25 38 47 84 13.8 4.2 0.1 18.2 +1.26
Patrik Elias 33 23 37 61 8.3 2.9 0.0 11.3 +1.03
Jamie Langenbrunner 34 21 33 54 6.5 2.9 0.0 9.5 +1.14
Travis Zajac 24 20 34 54 5.1 3.6 0.1 8.7 +1.41
Brian Rolston 36 16 20 36 3.6 2.0 0.0 5.5 +0.49
Dainius Zubrus 31 13 21 34 2.1 2.1 0.0 4.2 +0.12
David Clarkson 25 14 15 29 1.7 1.8 0.0 3.5 -0.08
Brendan Shanahan 40 9 14 23 1.8 1.2 0.0 3.0 -0.56
Matt Halischuk 21 6 8 13 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.5 -0.23
P. Letourneau-Leblond 24 5 7 11 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.3 N/A
Tim Sestito 25 5 6 11 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 N/A
Nicklas Bergfors 22 6 6 12 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 -0.08
Jay Pandolfo 35 7 8 14 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.8 -1.27
In 2008-09, LW Zach Parise had the second breakout season of his young career, with his scoring totals (45 G, 49 A, 94 P, +30 plus/minus) wildly exceeding expectations. As a 22 year old in 2006-07, he had jumped from 0.40 Points per Game to 0.76 P/GP. Last season, Parise further increased his output from 0.80 P/GP to 1.15 P/GP. We all knew that the second generation NHLer was a borderline All-Star player, but we didn’t know that he was a borderline superstar player. Not surprisingly, VUKOTA expects some regression, but don’t be surprised if the 17th overall pick of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft consolidates his gains next season.
Playing quietly by Parise’s side, with significantly less fanfare, was C Travis Zajac (20 G, 42 A, 62 P, +33 plus/minus), the Devils’ 1st round choice in the subsequent 2004 NHL Entry Draft. The 23 year old Zajac also broke out last season, taking his scoring from 0.41 P/GP to 0.76 P/GP. He’s no second fiddle, though. In 2008-09, Zajac was the best Devil by Even Strength Total Rating, worth +1.41 goals per 60 minutes to his team, the 11th best overall in the NHL by ESTR.
VUKOTA expects veterans RW Jamie Langenbrunner and LW Patrik Elias to again be amongst the most valuable New Jersey forwards, though the outlook for Elias must now be tempered by health concerns; to begin with, the Czech winger may be lost for much of October recovering from groin surgery.
Undoubtedly the man who’s happiest to see Jacques Lemaire back in the Garden State is Brian Rolston, already on his second tour of duty with the Devils. Under Brent Sutter, Rolston had his ice time cut by 5 minutes per game, after enjoying three of his four best career seasons under Lemaire with the Minnesota Wild. Look for a bounceback from the 36 year old Rolston, even past the paltry +5.5 GVT that VUKOTA predicts for him.
In addition to providing grit and intimidation, RW David Clarkson actually plays a solid all-around game. On the other hand, expect 40 year old LW Brendan Shanahan’s most meaningful contributions to come on the power play, as his even strength play has deteriorated to below average levels. C Dainius Zubrus will get a chance to put his money where his mouth is. The Lithuanian was critical of Sutter’s ability to adjust in the postseason; offseason moves and injuries will likely slot the 31 year old journeyman as the second line center. As for LW Jay Pandolfo, he's nothing more than a decent defensive forward who lacks much offensive punch.
Many other veteran contributors have departed. Brian Gionta (VUKOTA: 9.1 GVT, 52 points; +0.44 ESTR) left to sign with Montreal as a free agent, John Madden (VUKOTA: 2.7 GVT, 25 points; -0.72 ESTR) with Chicago, and Mike Rupp with Pittsburgh (VUKOTA: -0.9 GVT, 9 points; -0.34 ESTR). Bobby Holik retired (VUKOTA: 0.9 GVT, 15 points; -0.33 ESTR), though there’s a good chance that New Jersey wouldn’t have brought him back either. Lamoriello never seems to overpay and he always seems to have new faces waiting in the wings.
With those departures, there are several positions open for young forwards to make the team. Low upside options like Matt Halsichuk, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Tim Sestito, Ilkka Pikkarainen and Lowell captain Rod Pelley may make the squad as role players, but New Jersey’s upside resides in three young forwards from Sweden. LW Mattias Tedenby, 25th overall selection in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, has performed particularly well as a 19 year old in Sweden’s Eliteserien, showing top level quickness and finishing ability. 18 year old C Jacob Josefson, New Jersey’s 1st round selection in 2009, 20th overall, is a playmaker and two-way player. Both are seen as future top six forwards for the Devils, more economical substitutions for Brian Gionta and the like. Closer to making an impact for New Jersey is 22 year old RW Nicklas Bergfors, who already had a cup of coffee with the Devils in 2008-09.
New Jersey Devils - Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Paul Martin 28 6 26 32 3.3 5.5 0.0 8.8 +0.49
Johnny Oduya 28 6 20 25 2.5 5.2 0.0 7.7 +0.50
Mike Mottau 31 3 12 15 0.3 3.7 0.0 4.1 +0.81
Cory Murphy 31 4 13 18 2.0 1.7 0.0 3.7 +0.30
Colin White 32 2 12 14 0.4 3.3 0.0 3.7 +0.26
Bryce Salvador 33 2 10 12 0.4 2.7 0.0 3.0 -0.47
Andy Greene 27 2 9 11 0.1 2.4 0.0 2.6 +0.00
Jay Leach 30 1 4 5 -0.3 1.2 0.0 0.8 -0.42
Rob Davison 29 1 5 6 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.8 -1.27
New Jersey’s calling card has always been its defense. The current incarnation thereof features several solid defensive defensemen: Paul Martin, Johnny Oduya, Mike Mottau and Colin White. While several notable forwards were not resigned, the Devils made the right choice to resign Oduya, as the 28 year old Swede has put together two fine campaigns in a row (2007-08: 6 G, 20 A, 26 P, +27 plus/minus; 2008-09: 7 G, 22 A, 29 P, +21 plus/minus).
On a recent broadcast, New York area hockey fixture Stan Fischler went out of his way to let everyone know that Cory Murphy is wearing the same jersey number as Brian Rafalski and that they’re both little guys who are prototypical underdogs. Yet, the similarities go further. Both Brian and Cory played multiple seasons in Finland’s SM-Liiga, even coincidentally finishing up their tours of duty with Helsinki’s HIFK. Each had distinguished careers in Finland, posting three top 20 GVT seasons each. While you shouldn’t expect Murphy to turn into Rafalski, the Devils would certainly settle for Rafalski Lite. Defensively effective, Murphy should be allowed to contribute on the power play; five of his seven career goals–over two seasons–have been on the man advantage.
Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene and Jay Leach are also moderate quality blueliners competing for playing time. Salvador’s added liability is the large number of minor penalties he takes: He led New Jersey skaters in Penalties Taken and posted a team worst -15 Net Penalties.
Matt Corrente is the Devils’ defensive prospect of note, though he has taken a while to get seasoned in the minors since he was chosen 30th overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft. The 21 year old has promising offensive upside, with excellent skating skills and boasting the CHL’s hardest shot. If New Jersey is looking for another intimidator aside from Clarkson, Corrente may be their man, as he piles up penalty minutes (161 PIM last season). The Ontario native is unlikely to beat out the veterans for a spot on the big team out of training camp, but look for him to be in a Devils jersey in the near future.
New Jersey Devils - Goalies:
Legend:
OGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age GGVT SGVT GVT Save % GAA
Martin Brodeur 37 9.4 0.3 9.8 0.916 2.41
Yann Danis 28 3.9 -0.3 3.6 0.910 2.86
The ongoing sideshow during last regular season was Martin Brodeur’s quest to pass Patrick Roy as the all-time leader in wins. Mission accomplished: Marty now has 557 to Patrick’s 551. Brodeur also posted his 100th shutout in 2008-09 and is poised to pass Terry Sawchuk’s 103 shutouts sometime this season. Of consequence on the ice, though, was Brodeur’s biceps injury, the most serious of his career. It was surprising to see the future Hall Of Famer come back as strong as he did, though there was a very rough patch of play in April following extreme overuse of the recently injured goaltender.
New backup Yann Danis was the best of the Islanders’ goalies last season, and is a worthy backup to Brodeur. Hopefully, Coach Lemaire will use Danis liberally to keep Brodeur healthy and fresh for the playoffs. The ex-Isle may only be warming a spot for athletic 22 year old Jeff Frazee. The former University of Minnesota goaltender had a whale of a season for Lowell, posting 28 wins and a .920 save percentage, but his consistency and mental approach is questioned.
New Jersey Devils – Big Picture:
New Jersey’s only addition of note was the return of 1994-05 Stanley Cup winning coach Jacques Lemaire. As far as players are concerned, the Devils retained key defenseman Johnny Oduya and are expecting several more first round draft choices to contribute in the near future, and hopefully to a greater extent than several of the aging veterans that have departed. Can Lemaire’s coaching, along with the development of Lamoriello’s prospects possibly give the Devils an additional boost to get them past where they were last year? With any other team, you might say no, but Lamoriello’s New Jersey Devils have the track record to make you think that they’ll find a way to succeed.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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