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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 233 (19th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 237 (T-18th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 233 (T-11th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 240 (T-8th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 92 (T-15th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 90 (T-16th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 0 (17th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 2 (16th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.90 (20th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.92 (T-10th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.02 (16th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 51.8 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 23.8 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 10.3 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 4.5 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 1.8 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Going into 2008-09, expectations for the St. Louis Blues were pretty low. This was a team that had been in the bottom 5 of the league the previous year and had made no remarkable improvements in the offseason. What low expectations existed at the time were reduced when defenseman Erik Johnson, who had a sparkling rookie season in 2007-08, suffered a freak accident that sidelined him for the entire season. The Blues even seemed to of had an outside chance of winning the lottery for the #1 overall pick. While they appeared to be building the team in the right direction, it still looked like a long year ahead.
What a difference a year makes! In 2008-09 the Blues rode fantastic goaltending from Chris Mason, breakout years from David Backes and David Perron, and spectacular rookie years from Patrik Berglund and T.J. Oshie to a 6th place finish in the Western Conference. They were one of the top 5 teams in the NHL in the second half, and even their first-round elimination by the Canucks could not stop them from being the feel-good story of the NHL. The question for the upcoming season is: can they improve further, or is this as good as it gets?
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Brad Boyes F 27 77.2 30.9 34.8 65.7 9.1 2.1 0.2 11.4
Patrik Berglund F 21 74.3 22.0 28.1 50.1 7.1 3.2 0.0 10.3
David Perron F 21 72.8 17.6 30.5 48.1 6.3 3.0 0.0 9.3
David Backes F 25 75.9 23.8 25.1 48.8 5.9 2.9 0.0 8.8
T.J. Oshie F 23 64.6 16.2 25.7 41.8 5.3 3.1 0.0 8.5
Andy McDonald F 32 59.0 15.8 28.2 44.0 4.9 1.4 0.0 6.4
Keith Tkachuk F 37 68.9 18.5 23.1 41.6 4.2 1.7 0.0 5.8
Paul Kariya F 35 44.7 9.4 21.4 30.8 3.3 1.3 0.0 4.5
Alexander Steen F 25 69.1 11.2 20.2 31.3 1.8 2.1 0.0 3.9
Jay McClement F 26 69.9 10.2 13.0 23.2 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0
B.J. Crombeen F 24 64.9 10.4 10.4 20.8 0.4 1.4 0.0 1.8
Brad Winchester F 28 54.7 9.3 8.7 18.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5
Cam Paddock F 26 34.5 5.5 6.1 11.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2
Barry Tallackson F 26 28.2 4.5 5.7 10.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0
D.J. King F 25 35.0 4.6 6.1 10.7 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9
Yan Stastny F 27 41.5 5.4 6.9 12.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.4
Cam Janssen F 25 49.4 2.7 4.0 6.7 -1.7 0.7 0.0 -1.0
The Blues have a very deep group up front, where their depth makes up for their lack of superstars. Brad Boyes has established himself as an elite goal-scorer in the NHL: over the last two seasons, this is the full list of players who have scored more than Boyes’ 76 goals: Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Iginla, Malkin, Heatley, Staal, Nash, Parise. That’s it. While Boyes doesn’t have the all-around game of some of these players (among others, he doesn’t kill penalties), don’t be fooled by his atrocious plus/minus of -20 last season: he is a serviceable two-way player at even-strength, and he is a significant threat on the power-play. VUKOTA’s projection of 66 points and 11.4 GVT seems amply reasonable barring injury; Boyes has played 164 regular-season games in the last two years.
Swedish Patrik Berlund had a great rookie season, and his 47 points were one big reason why the Blues were able to emerge from the basement. While some people will get excited about his plus/minus of + 19 (he was 5th in the NHL in relative plus/minus last year), Berglund’s game still needs some polish: he was used mainly offensively last season, even at even-strength. However, he is only 21, and his game is likely to develop further. 50 points and 10.3 GVT should be achievable next season.
David Perron was another revelation for the Blues last year, in his second season. Perron has a skill that doesn’t show up in mainstream statistics, net penalty drawing (penalties drawn – penalties taken), which increases his value to the team in subtle ways. VUKOTA sees him as reproducing last year’s numbers, which sounds right given that he is already receiving significant power-play time.
David Backes has emerged as the Blues’ most well-rounded player. Usable in all situations, Backes was the team’s best offensive player at even-strength, which is a big deal when you consider the team is already well-equipped in power-play weapons, and that they were outscored by 16 goals at even-strength last year. Backes was also a member of the league’s 5th-best penalty killing unit, and was 2nd in short-handed ice time among forwards on the team. His only downside is his tendency to take penalties; if he can work on that, he will be the team’s MVP.
T.J. Oshie made quite an impression in his 57 games with the team last year, enough to merit an invitation to the US Olympic Camp. Oshie is another player with well-rounded skills, and has a very bright future ahead of him. Already he is being used in every situation, even scoring 4 points short-handed last year. VUKOTA has him pegged for 65 games this year based on his shortened season, but he is likely to play the full season and exceed expectations; look for his value to exceed what is captured by GVT or traditional metrics.
Keith Tkachuk is now into the sunset years of what has been a spectacular NHL career. Sadly, because Tkachuk has played only for poor teams, he has only made it out of the first round of the playoffs twice (in two consecutive years, 2001 and 2002, with the Blues), which will likely cost him a spot in the Hall of Fame. Despite being 37, he still controls the play very well and played 79 games last year. Look for Tkachuk’s production to decline next year, but he will still be highly valued for mentoring the young players and his power-play skill.
Paul Kariya’s loss was a huge disappointment to the Blues last season; it certainly seemed like the end of the team’s slim playoff hopes when he went down with a major injury. Now he is supposedly healed, and his contract is up this year, so it would be a good season to exceed expectations. If Kariya manages to play 70 games, look for him to double VUKOTA’s projection of 31 points and 4.5 GVT.
Andy McDonald is the only other potential top-6 forward in the Blues arsenal; he was a 78-point scorer just 2 years ago and was a key player in helping the Ducks win the Stanley Cup in 2007. He excelled in limited action last season, with 44 points and 6.5 GVT in only 46 games; he even had points on 4 of the Blues 5 playoff goals. However, at 32, McDonald is entering the decline phase of his career, so hopefully he will be able to play the full season this year and return to the range of 60 points.
Overall, the Blues’ only problem up front is that, apart from Boyes, they have no player who’s a guarantee to crack 50 points. The best bets, if healthy, are McDonald and Kariya, but luckily the Blues proved last year that they can compete even if Kariya is on the shelf. However, while 4 games is a small sample, let’s not forget how easily this team was shutdown by the Canucks in last year’s playoffs; having an extra elite weapon like Kariya can make the difference between the opponent focusing all their energies on the top line and having to spread their efforts.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Carlo Colaiacovo D 26 64.8 4.3 19.6 23.9 2.2 3.6 0.0 5.8
Brendan Bell D 26 61.0 5.8 18.2 24.1 2.5 3.4 -0.1 5.8
Barret Jackman D 28 69.9 3.4 14.7 18.1 0.6 3.7 0.0 4.4
Tyson Strachan D 25 43.9 1.2 5.8 7.0 -0.2 2.4 0.0 2.3
Eric Brewer D 30 48.7 2.2 10.6 12.8 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.2
Steve Wagner D 25 37.9 2.7 7.4 10.1 0.8 1.3 0.0 2.1
Jonas Junland D 22 28.0 1.9 5.8 7.6 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.5
Alex Pietrangelo D 28 31.3 1.5 5.8 7.3 0.1 1.3 0.0 1.4
Mike Weaver D 31 52.2 0.7 4.9 5.6 -0.9 2.1 0.0 1.2
If the Blues have an abundance of offensive skill at the forward position, then they have a complete famine among their defensemen. The only offensively skilled defenseman, Erik Johnson, was out all of last year and thus has no VUKOTA projection, but Johnson scored 33 points and 6.9 GVT in his rookie year in 2007-08, and so could approach those numbers this year. However, the Blues’ blue line is in overall good shape: the top defensemen are all 30 years or younger, which means there should be little erosion in skills and a containable amount of injuries, assuming they stay away from golf.
The closest the Blues had to a power-play quarterback last year was Carlo Colaiacovo, who acquitted himself quite well in the role under the circumstances, but no goaltenders had to be consoled in their sleep because of nightmares of facing the Blues’ point. Amazingly, the Blues got both Colaiacovo and Alexander Steen for Lee Stempniak from Toronto, which seems like a steal just one year later.
The Blues’ clear #1 defenseman is Barret Jackman. While Jackman lacks the offensive upside of some of the other top defensemen in the league, his defensive play is unshakeable, both at even-strength and short-handed, and he is an ice-time hog: he plays over 23 minutes a game, and was 1st overall in the NHL in total non-power-play ice time. While he’ll never be Nicklas Lidstrom, there’s something to be said for having such a reliable presence on the ice for almost half of the game.
Poor Eric Brewer was yet another casualty of the Blues injury bug last year. When healthy, Brewer, like Jackman, is a defenseman who can be counted on for 22 to 24 minutes a night. In 2007-08, the last full season he played, Brewer was 17th in the NHL in total ice time.
With both Brewer and Johnson back, the Blues defensive corps will be looking a lot steadier, reducing the load on Jackman. Their defensemen are still lacking offensive skill, and their lack of a high-end puck-moving defenseman will bite them against stronger teams. However, they certainly have better depth than last year, enough that it appears Brendan Bell will likely not make the team.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Chris Mason G 33 43.4 7.6 -0.2 7.4
Ty Conklin G 33 33.7 5.5 0.0 5.5
Ben Bishop G 23 16.0 0.8 -0.1 0.6
If you want to thank one person for last season’s Cinderella run into the postseason, it shouldn’t be Boyes or coach Andy Murray; that honor goes to goaltender Chris Mason, who rebounded from a disastrous 2007-08 to lead the Blues. Mason has actually had a pretty good career, playing so well as Tomas Vokoun’s backup that the Predators felt okay about letting Vokoun go. However, that soon turned sour: Mason made a hash of his first #1 job, so much that the Predators, with their inexhaustible supply of goaltenders, had to share the responsibilities with Dan Ellis before discovering Pekka Rinne this year. The Blues traded a 4th-round pick for Mason (yes, you read that right) and have made out brilliantly so far. Although Mason’s 2007-08 season leaves some doubt as to his continued excellence, look for him to be not as good as last year but still a decent #1 in 45 games.
Ty Conklin, the NHL’s most well-traveled backup, is now on his 6th team since losing game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals for the Oilers, which is unfortunate because he has been pretty good the last two years. He has played roughly 35 games each of the last two seasons, first in relief of Marc-Andre Fleury and then Chris Osgood, and should be able to provide the same in St. Louis. Ben Bishop will likely be in the AHL, although he will get a call-up in case of an injury to any of the top 2.
Overall:
The Blues are in the position of a garage band that was never expected to achieve anything and unexpectedly ended up having their first big hit. Will they get any bigger, or will this be the highlight of a stagnant career? While the rise of the Penguins and Blackhawks has made young, draft-built teams the new “it”, the Blues haven’t assembled a talent collection to rival either of those teams. Many of their players took their game to a higher level last year, and rarely do such players significantly improve their performances two years in a row.
If the Blues want to improve over last season, then it will have to come from the returning players, mainly Johnson and Kariya, as well as Mason continuing to be outstanding in the net. If all of the pieces fall into place, the Blues could finish as high as 5th in the conference, but more likely they will find themselves, like last year, near the middle of the pack, among the bottom half of playoff teams. The Blues are building correctly, and within 3 years will likely be a Stanley Cup contender, but not this year.
Tom Awad is an author of Puck Prospectus.
You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.
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