|
(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 264 (T-4th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 257 (6th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 238 (T-16th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 257 (T-27th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 99 (T-8th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 94 (9th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 26 (T-7th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 9 (9th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.19 (6th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.07 (T-27th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.12 (8th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 65.6 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 33.6 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 15.9 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 7.3 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 3.4 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
The Broad Street Bullies are back. Continuously remade in the image of their general manager Paul Holmgren over the past few seasons, they’re not afraid to pay the price of the odd penalty here and there towards the end of making you not want to play against them.
Yet, intimidation is an overtone. What’s Philadelphia’s substance?
The 2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers were an excellent offensive team with underrated goaltending whose fatal flaw was a poor defense. That poor defense was the bottom line of what kept them from going far into the playoffs. So how will the 2009-10 Flyers fare now with the addition of future Hall Of Fame blueliner Chris Pronger, and what will happen between the pipes, now that they have completely shuffled the deck in goal?
Philadelphia Flyers - Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Mike Richards 24 30 49 79 13.5 3.5 0.1 17.1 0.35
Jeff Carter 24 38 38 76 13.5 3.3 -0.1 16.7 0.58
Simon Gagne 29 27 35 62 10.5 2.5 0.0 13.0 0.43
Scott Hartnell 27 24 28 52 7.1 2.3 0.0 9.3 0.63
Claude Giroux 21 15 23 38 5.9 1.9 -0.1 7.7 1.02
Daniel Briere 32 17 24 40 6.0 0.9 0.0 6.9 -0.12
Ian Laperriere 35 6 11 17 0.2 1.9 0.0 2.1 0.36
Krys Kolanos 28 6 7 13 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.8 N/A
Lukas Kaspar 24 6 7 13 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.6 -0.06
Arron Asham 31 7 9 16 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.0 -0.01
Jason Ward 30 5 6 11 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.9 N/A
Daniel Carcillo 24 7 11 18 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.8 -1.05
Darroll Powe 24 7 8 16 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 -1.29
Riley Cote 27 1 3 4 -1.8 0.3 0.0 -1.5 -1.62
The heart of Philadelphia’s rise to power has been the development of two highly touted prospects into All Stars: captain C Mike Richards and C Jeff Carter, both 24 year olds in their hockey prime. Richards, the 24th overall selection in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft, already made his big jump in production from 2006-07 to 2007-08, going from 0.54 Points per Game Played to 1.03 P/GP. Carter, the 11th overall selection in the very same 2003 NHL Entry Draft, took until 2008-09 to make his move, going from 0.65 P/GP to 1.02 P/GP. While VUKOTA sees the two essentially in a dead heat as far as value to the Flyers in 2009-10, there is much more of an established track record with Richards. We may not know for certain what Carter is yet, as his stats (46 G, 38 A, 84 P in 82 GP) were biased by a scorching hot October through December (27 G, 16 A, 43 P in 37 GP). In particular, maintaining that 0.73 Goals Per Game pace would have topped Alex Ovechkin’s 0.71 G/GP for the best in the NHL; mind you, Carter put pucks in opposing nets at a 0.42 G/GP pace for the rest of the season, though with a slightly increased assist rate. For all of their strong suits, these primary faceoff men for Philadelphia lose more draws than they win, with Richards at 49.0% and Carter at 48.3% in 2008-09.
LW Simon Gagne has been good for 0.89-1.10 P/GP in each season since the lockout, in years where he’s been healthy enough to play in a majority of the games. Former Predator LW Scott Hartnell is one of four Flyers who were among the top 25 players in Penalties Minutes (along with Daniel Carcillo, Riley Cote and Arron Asham), and the only one expected to have a GVT of greater than 1.0 in 2009-10. C Daniel Briere came over to the Flyers from Buffalo just in time to suck up $8 Million per season while having his points per game drop from the 1.20 P/GP range to the 0.85-0.90 P/GP range; any further decline for the 31 year old may make Brian Campbell’s contract look like a bargain in comparison, with the next three seasons of the contract at $7 Million annually.
If it wasn’t enough to acquire the last two seasons’ runaway number one PIM man, LW Daniel Carcillo, at the trading deadline, Holmgren went out and signed edgy free agent RW Ian Laperriere in the offseason. Playing with Colorado last season–you guessed it–Laperriere was yet another player in the top 25 penalty minutes club. Now the Flyers will have cornered the market on a full 20% of the top penalty takers in the league. On the positive side, Carcillo, Laperriere and Asham are tough guys like their general manager was in the past, and they can also play a bit as well, like their general manager could. Putting GVT aside, getting 20-ish points per season from your tough guys is not too bad.
The young forward to get excited about, though, is RW Claude Giroux. Playing in just 42 games, the 22nd overall pick in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft put up a respectable 9 G, 18 A, 27 P, +10 plus/minus while playing 15 minutes per night. VUKOTA predicts a GVT of 7.7 in 52 GP, but prorate that out to a full season and you can expect more along the lines of 60 Points and 12 GVT, possibly more. The Hearst, Ontario native was one of Philadelphia’s best two-way skaters at even strength, both in the regular season and in the playoffs: The forward’s +1.02 ESTR in 545 regular season minutes led the team by a wide margin, while he put up a comparable +0.97 ESTR in the Flyers’ brief playoff appearance against the Penguins. Gaining a full season of Claude Giroux should offset any regression to the mean by other offensive contributors. The 21 year old playmaker is a first line talent and a future All Star.
Potentially the next impact player out of the Flyers’ developmental pipeline is LW James Van Riemsdyk. The 2nd overall pick in 2007, the 20 year old power forward from New Jersey should develop into a solid 1st or 2nd line contributor.
Philadelphia Flyers - Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Chris Pronger 35 10 33 43 6.2 4.5 -0.1 10.6 0.07
Kimmo Timonen 34 6 29 36 4.3 4.6 -0.1 8.7 0.12
Braydon Coburn 24 7 24 31 3.8 4.0 0.0 7.7 -0.19
Matt Carle 25 5 18 23 2.2 2.8 0.0 5.0 0.12
Randy Jones 28 4 12 16 1.2 2.8 0.0 4.0 0.32
O. Tollefsen 25 1 5 6 -0.3 1.4 0.0 1.1 -1.86
Ryan Parent 22 1 6 8 -0.6 1.4 0.0 0.8 -0.08
Philadelphia made the biggest splash of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, though not with a draft choice, but with the trade to Anaheim of winger Joffrey Lupul, promising defensive prospect Luca Sbisa and two first round draft picks for gritty All Star defenseman Chris Pronger. Flyers’ management correctly assessed their need for an established number one defenseman to play alongside defensive stalwart Kimmo Timonen as their greatest need. While Pronger is slowly beginning to decline, he can fit the bill. A Pronger-Timonen pairing would have rated among the best in the league in 2008-09, along with the top pairings of Detroit, San Jose, Boston, Edmonton and Chicago.
VUKOTA sees Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle and Randy Jones as serviceable defensemen. Unfortunately, more had been hoped for, especially of Coburn. Interestingly enough, ESTR ranked Randy Jones as the Flyers’ best defenseman of 2008-09, though as we know, there were no standouts.
Philadelphia is hoping that their top defensive talent Ryan Parent can establish himself as one of their top 6 blueliners this season. Considered a shutdown defender with excellent leadership skills, the 22 year old Ontario native should be a future second pairing defenseman.
Philadelphia Flyers - Goalies:
Legend:
OGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age GGVT SGVT GVT Save % GAA
Ray Emery* 26 -8.5 -1.9 -10.4 0.890 3.13
Brian Boucher 32 4.1 0.0 4.1 0.917 2.18
*Emery's stats shown are his actual 2007-08 GVT, Save % and GAA.
If Holmgren was looking for the surliest goaltender this side of Ronnie Hextall, mission accomplished: Ray Emery has been rescued from the Russian winter to bring his traffic violations, confrontations with teammates, on-ice fisticuffs, .907 career save percentage and .564 career shootout save percentage to the City of Brotherly Love. Now remind me: What exactly was so wrong with Martin Biron and Antero Niittymaki or, for that fact, with other free agent goaltenders such as Mathieu Garon (excellent in the shootout) or Manny Fernandez?
Brian Boucher, most recently of San Jose, will nominally be the backup, but don’t be surprised to see that arrangement flip-flopped by Christmas, as this may turn into one of those hard-to-avert-your-eyes spectacles.
Philadelphia Flyers – Big Picture:
Anything that Philadelphia may gain on defense with the acquisition of Pronger and in the development of Coburn, Carle and Parent, may now be dashed on wrecking the decent goaltending tandem they had in place. In addition to any general decline they may see in between the pipes, their shootout performance should now be poor no matter who is in goal: Boucher’s .538 career shootout save percentage is even worse than Emery’s .564. That could make a postseason berth dicey if the Flyers are on the bubble.
Taking a page from the team’s history books, general manager Paul Holmgren wants to make it very, very uncomfortable to play against the Philadelphia Flyers again. If there weren’t enough bruisers on the 2008-09 opening night squad, they added “Madman” Dan Carcillo at last season’s trading deadline, signed feisty Ian Laperriere this offseason and traded for chippy–dare we say dirty–defenseman Chris Pronger. The good news is that with this many young and tough players on the ice, at least Holmgren won’t be tempted to go out and settle things himself, or at least you wouldn’t think he would.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Rask Leads Race