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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 246 (13th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 244 (12th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 220 (6th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 243 (T-12th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 100 (7th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 98 (6th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 26 (T-7th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 19 (6th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.02 (T-11th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.92 (T-10th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.10 (9th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 60.0 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 30.8 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 15.0 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 7.0 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 3.1 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Take the Sedin twins, add a talented pool of veteran forwards and defensemen and throw in one of the league’s best goaltenders, and what do you have? A possible Stanley Cup contender.
Forwards:
By signing and/or developing a talented supporting cast for the Sedins, the Vancouver Canucks have one of the better collections of forwards in the league. Hopefully this should take some of the burden off of the goaltending, which could allow the Canucks to win games even when Luongo is hurt or having an off-night.
Legend:
Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.
Tm: Team from 2008-2009 season.
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2008-2009 2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player Tm P GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT GVT
29 Daniel Sedin VAN LW 82 31 51 82 18 13.3 5.3 78 29 45 74 11.4 3.5 14.8
29 Henrik Sedin VAN C 82 22 60 82 15 11.4 5.0 77 23 50 73 10.1 3.5 13.6
25 Ryan Kesler VAN C 82 26 33 59 -2 7.0 2.6 76 23 28 51 6.1 3.1 9.1
28 Alex Burrows VAN LW 82 28 23 51 12 7.0 4.7 75 20 22 43 5.2 3.4 8.5
35 Pavol Demitra VAN RW 69 20 33 53 0 6.1 1.9 65 16 29 45 5.0 2.0 7.0
38 Mats Sundin VAN C 41 9 19 28 -7 1.8 -0.2 56 15 26 40 4.9 1.6 6.4
33 Mikael Samuelsson DET RW 81 19 21 40 -3 3.4 1.0 64 15 22 37 3.8 2.3 6.1
24 Steve Bernier VAN RW 81 15 17 32 0 1.2 1.5 69 16 18 34 2.7 2.0 4.6
26 Kyle Wellwood VAN C 74 18 9 27 -1 1.3 1.2 61 14 15 28 2.2 1.4 3.5
24 Mason Raymond VAN LW 72 11 12 23 -2 0.7 1.0 60 12 14 26 1.8 1.5 3.2
27 Michel Ouellet VAN RW 3 0 0 0 1 -0.2 0.2 39 8 10 18 1.9 1.1 3.0
23 Jannik Hansen VAN RW 55 6 15 21 -1 -0.2 1.3 57 9 15 24 1.0 1.7 2.7
32 Mark Parrish DAL RW 44 8 5 13 -1 0.3 0.5 52 10 10 20 1.3 1.1 2.5
24 Alexandre Bolduc VAN C 7 0 1 1 1 -0.2 0.2 31 5 7 11 0.6 0.7 1.2
33 Ryan Johnson VAN C 62 2 7 9 -4 -1.9 0.8 58 4 8 13 -0.7 1.8 1.1
24 Rick Rypien VAN C 12 3 0 3 -4 0.1 -0.4 36 6 7 13 0.4 0.7 1.0
26 Tanner Glass FLA LW 3 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0.0 32 4 5 9 0.1 0.5 0.6
29 Darcy Hordichuk VAN LW 73 4 1 5 -1 -2.2 0.6 53 4 3 7 -1.5 0.9 -0.6
Vancouver forwards are projected to have a GVT of 76.8 goals above replacement level, which is very good. This total doesn’t include UFAs Sundin and Ouellet, who are included here in case the Canucks can make a deal. Without them the Canucks lack depth, which will present 3rd or 4th-line opportunities for new or undiscovered players if the injury bug hits the northwest.
The real story here are the Sedins - two exceptional forwards at both ends of the ice. The key is to find the right players with which to complement them, and currently they’re backed up by two other capable top-line forwards in Kesler and the highly underrated two-way winger Alex Burrows. In total they had five 20-goal scorers and two others who were close, and figure to have at least four this season.
Legend:
ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.
ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.
QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.
GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.
DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
Player ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Sedin 1.1 1.8 3.41 1.7 2.8 7.16 0.25 1.6 1.0 0.37
Burrows 1.3 1.2 3.65 0.0 0.0 1.61 0.12 1.1 1.4 0.32
Sedin 0.9 1.9 3.43 0.7 4.0 6.90 0.30 2.3 1.0 0.31
Kesler 0.7 1.2 2.98 3.1 2.4 7.96 -0.03 1.1 0.8 0.23
Demitra 1.0 1.3 3.02 1.0 2.9 6.36 -0.01 1.0 0.3 0.22
Samuelsson 0.7 0.5 2.29 1.9 3.5 9.47 -0.07 2.1 0.6 0.12
Sundin 0.4 1.1 2.31 2.1 3.9 9.87 -0.02 1.6 0.8 0.11
Wellwood 0.6 0.5 2.04 2.6 0.8 6.61 -0.25 1.8 0.5 0.05
Bernier 0.9 0.8 2.36 0.6 1.5 5.91 -0.02 0.6 0.9 0.05
Raymond 0.5 0.5 1.88 1.8 2.7 5.36 -0.14 1.3 1.3 0.03
Parrish 0.6 0.6 1.75 2.9 0.7 6.48 -0.15 1.2 0.5 0.03
Hansen 0.6 1.4 3.45 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 1.0 1.0 -0.02
Johnson 0.2 0.9 1.87 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.28 0.8 0.5 -0.20
Hordichuk 0.6 0.2 1.65 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.40 0.9 1.5 -0.32
Vancouver’s combined Offensive GVT of 1.73 above replacement level per 60 minutes is quite good. The Canucks have lots of scoring threats, including twelve forwards with at least 0.5 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, seven playmakers above 1.0 even-strength assists per 60 minutes, five forwards with ESGFA above 3.00, and five forwards above the 0.20 offensive GVT per 60 minutes threshold.
The Canucks have the three top-tier offensive players that any team needs to compete in Burrows and the Sedins, the only forwards who got the great ice-time last season. Solid secondary scoring would come from Kesler and Demitra, who was 3rd in even-strength goals per 60 minutes and had an ESGFA over 3.00. Canucks should also expect some secondary contributions from Samuelsson, who played for the Wings last season.
One of the more interesting players statistically is Hansen, who was surprisingly 2nd only to Burrows with a 3.45 ESGFA, and who was 3rd to the Sedins with 1.4 even-strength assists per 60 minutes. The 24-year-old Dane has the potential of contributing far more than the 24 points in 57 games we expect.
Legend:
ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.
QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.
FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.
TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.
HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.
BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.
TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.
Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.
DGVT: Defensive GVT
Player ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP FO% TM% HITS BkS TkA Pen DGVT
Burrows 2.40 5.70 0.04 46.3 1.6 3.0 1.7 2.7 2.0 0.22
Sedin 2.19 3.42 0.06 40.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.15
Sedin 2.33 7.64 0.06 49.6 28.8 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.13
Hansen 2.94 5.16 0.01 16.7 0.3 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.12
Hordichuk 1.50 128.57 -0.11 100.0 0.0 16.7 1.2 1.6 2.5 0.09
Kesler 2.56 6.83 0.04 54.0 20.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.09
Johnson 1.75 9.01 -0.05 48.5 15.7 2.9 7.4 1.6 0.5 0.08
Demitra 2.64 10.06 0.04 54.5 6.0 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.07
Bernier 2.09 0.00 0.03 23.8 0.4 7.8 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.06
Raymond 1.73 6.38 -0.02 34.0 1.2 2.6 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.05
Wellwood 1.89 66.67 0.00 57.5 14.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.05
Parrish 2.18 0.00 -0.03 20.0 0.2 3.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 0.05
Samuelsson 2.29 0.00 0.01 25.0 0.1 4.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.04
Sundin 2.86 9.68 0.01 55.2 25.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 -0.01
The combined 1.13 Defensive GVT per 60 minutes above replacement value places the Vancouver Canucks just above average. Burrows is probably their top defensive player, but he needs to improve his discipline. When the game is on the line and the opposing team has their best players on the ice, the Canucks turn to the Sedins, and though they didn’t throw many hits, they sure kept the puck out of their own net.
In Hordichuk, Raymond, Wellwood and the shot-blocking Johnson the Canucks have four depth players against whom fewer than 2 even-strength goals per 60 minutes were scored. The hard-hitting, but lightly-penalized Bernier is right behind at 2.09. Wellwood and Kesler bless the Canucks with a couple of good faceoff men. Kesler is an underrated player defensively, leading the Canucks in takeaways, and finishing 2nd in blocked shots per 60 minutes. Not many teams are as well-stocked as Vancouver with tight defensive role-playing forwards.
Defensemen:
The Vancouver Canucks have a balanced and competitive group of defensemen with a blend of both offensive and defensive talent. The offseason acquisitions of Ehrhoff, Schneider and Lukowich could be just what the doctor ordered once they have had time to gel with the rest of the team.
Legend:
Age: Age as of January 1, 2010. Players enter their prime around 26.
Tm: Team from 2008-2009 season.
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus, average is 0, and +10 or better is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2008-2009 2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Age Player Tm P GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT GP G A PTS OGVT DGVT GVT
23 Alexander Edler VAN D 80 10 27 37 4 4.3 4.5 78 10 29 39 5.3 5.1 10.4
28 Kevin Bieksa VAN D 72 11 32 43 -11 6.5 0.5 65 9 28 37 5.2 3.7 8.9
27 Christian Ehrhoff SJS D 77 8 34 42 -15 5.6 0.9 71 6 26 32 3.8 4.7 8.5
35 Sami Salo VAN D 60 5 20 25 -1 2.8 2.3 60 6 20 26 3.5 3.7 7.1
40 Mathieu Schneider MTL D 67 9 23 32 -5 3.5 0.1 56 6 20 26 3.4 2.6 6.1
32 Willie Mitchell VAN D 82 3 20 23 15 1.1 7.7 68 3 14 17 0.8 4.7 5.5
26 Shane O'Brien VAN D 77 0 10 10 -2 -1.8 2.0 64 2 10 12 -0.1 3.1 3.0
33 Brad Lukowich SJS D 58 0 8 8 0 -1.1 2.9 54 1 7 8 -0.6 2.6 2.1
26 Aaron Rome CBJ D 8 0 1 1 0 -0.1 0.4 33 2 6 8 0.4 1.4 1.8
30 Lawrence Nycholat COL D 19 0 1 1 0 -0.6 0.6 34 1 5 6 -0.1 1.2 1.1
24 Nathan McIver ANA D 18 0 1 1 2 -0.2 0.7 35 1 5 6 -0.1 1.1 1.0
Vancouver defensemen are projected to combine for a GVT of 46.5, which is among the best in the league. They have good depth with up to eight regular NHL defensemen from which to choose.
Edler is projected to be their stand-out defensemen, contributing at a first-line level at both ends of the ice. Salo is the same way, but at a second-line level, and they’ve got an excellent stay-at-home defensemen in Willie Mitchell (+15 RPM).
The Canucks picked up two one-way offensive defensemen in Ehrhoff and Schneider to complement Bieksa, the one they already had. As for the danger of a serious defensive liability on the blue line, all three are projected to improve defensively this season, Ehrhoff and Bieksa moreso than the aging Schneider.
Legend:
ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength (ES) or Power-Play (PP) goals (G) or assists (A) per 60 minutes. At even strength, 0.4 is average for goals, 0.7 for assists. Anything 1.0 higher than that is excellent.
ESGFA/PPGFA: ES or PP Goals For Average (Team goals for per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 on the power-play. Over 4.00 is exceptional.
QTEAM: Relative Quality of linemates, average is 0.
GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes. 1.4 is about average and 1.0 less than that is excellent.
DRAW: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes. 0.6 is about average, higher for forwards. Anything over 2.0 is excellent.
OGVT: Offensive GVT
Player ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTEAM GvA DRAW OGVT
Bieksa 0.3 0.5 2.50 1.1 4.3 7.50 0.14 2.0 0.6 0.18
Ehrhoff 0.1 0.7 2.18 1.3 5.1 11.06 -0.06 1.8 0.4 0.17
Edler 0.2 0.5 2.67 1.1 3.5 7.99 0.00 2.3 0.4 0.12
Salo 0.0 0.8 2.47 1.6 2.8 6.90 0.20 1.4 0.2 0.11
Schneider 0.2 0.5 2.64 1.5 2.9 9.30 0.07 1.7 0.1 0.11
Mitchell 0.1 0.8 3.06 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.07 1.9 0.7 0.04
Lukowich 0.0 0.6 2.27 0.0 0.0 0.00 -0.02 1.9 0.4 -0.07
McIver 0.0 0.4 1.10 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.08 0.4 0.0 -0.07
O'Brien 0.0 0.6 2.56 0.0 0.0 16.44 -0.01 1.6 0.3 -0.10
Nycholat 0.0 0.3 2.35 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.07 1.9 1.0 -0.18
The Canucks combined for an offensive GVT of 0.73 above replacement level per 60 minutes, which is up there with the best in the league. Bieksa is fast approaching that elite level of offensive production, but his numbers are slightly inflated by the high quality of linemates with which he has been playing with. Edler’s offensive numbers were almost as good as Bieksa’s, but he did it without the same quality of linemates.
There’s a lot of buzz about the secondary offense that will be provided by Ehrhoff and Schneider, but what about Willie Mitchell? Oddly enough, scoring was highest last season when the defensive-minded Mitchell was on the ice, despite playing with weaker linemates. He tied Salo as the top even-strength playmaker on the point despite the fact that Salo generally received lots of playing time with the Sedins.
Legend:
ESGAA/SHGAA: ES or Short-handed (SH) Goals Against Average (Team goals against per 60 minutes). At even-strength 2.50 is about average, 5.60 short-handed. Below 2.00 is very good.
QCOMP: Relative Quality of competition, average is 0.
FO%: Face-off winning percentage. Over 50% is good.
TM%: Percentage of team’s face-offs taken.
HITS: Hits thrown per 60 minutes. 4.2 is about average, 15.0 is exceptional.
BkS: Shots blocked per 60 minutes. 2.2 is about average, higher for defensemen. Anything over 6.0 is excellent.
TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes. 1.3 is about average, over 3.0 is exceptional.
Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes. 0.9 is about average, and very disciplined players are around 0.2 or 0.3.
DGVT: Defensive GVT
Player ESGAA SHGAA QCOMP HITS BkS TkA Pen DGVT
Mitchell 1.91 7.03 0.06 2.6 4.0 1.2 0.9 0.27
McIver 0.37 22.29 -0.12 13.1 2.5 0.4 1.1 0.25
Lukowich 1.91 6.25 -0.05 7.5 5.2 1.1 0.4 0.19
Nycholat 2.01 17.39 -0.02 3.5 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.18
Edler 2.15 8.75 -0.01 3.6 3.3 1.0 1.0 0.12
O'Brien 2.28 4.75 -0.02 4.2 2.7 1.0 2.5 0.11
Salo 2.12 8.50 0.06 2.3 3.3 1.1 0.6 0.09
Ehrhoff 2.75 6.68 -0.04 2.9 3.3 1.2 1.1 0.03
Bieksa 2.70 4.80 0.03 4.2 2.1 1.0 1.1 0.01
Schneider 3.30 6.82 -0.01 3.0 5.0 2.1 1.4 0.00
If they use their top six defensemen over-all then Vacouver’s combined defensive GVT above replacement level per 60 minutes is 0.52, which isn’t that great. If they replace one or two of their one-way offensive defensemen like Ehrhoff and Schneider with someone stronger defensively like Lukowich or O’Brien then they could be one of the best defensive teams on the blue line.
Regardless of whether the Canucks want to emphasize offense or defense, Mitchell will be in the lineup. Mitchell is Vancouver’s shutdown defensemen, and is used against the toughest opponents, but amazingly allowing fewer than 2 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. He is well-complemented by Salo, who kept scoring almost as low against the same level of opposition. Edler was solid, but Bieksa struggled defensively at times last season.
As for the depth players, Nycholat was hard to score against in limited chances, and had lots of takeaways, so he has the potential of being quite good defensively if used regularly throughout a full season. The same can be said for McIver and his miniscule 0.37 goals against average in his 18 games.
Goaltending:
Vancouver has one of the league’s best starting goaltenders, but this team has always struggled to find a reliable backup. As long as Luongo stays healthy, the Canucks will be in the top half of the league in goaltending.
Legend:
TGP: Total Games Played is Minutes Played divided by 60.
S/GP: Shots Against per 60 minutes.
ESSV%: Save Percentage at even-strength. Average is around .913.
GVT: Goals Versus Threshold; Value above replacement-level player, in goals.
GVT/GP: GVT per 60 minutes. 0 is replacement-level.
2009-2010
VUKOTA
2008-2009 Projection
Age Goalie Team GP TGP S/GP SV% ESSV% GVT GVT/GP GVT
29 Roberto Luongo VAN 54 53.0 29.1 .920 .936 19.8 0.37 13.7
22 Cory Schneider VAN 8 5.9 27.3 .877 .882 -3.4 -0.57 -1.0
28 Andrew Raycroft COL 31 28.7 29.1 .892 .905 -8.4 -0.29 -1.8
Having experienced injury problems recently, the VUKOTA system projected the 29-year-old Luongo’s GVT to drop from a terrific 19.8 to 13.7, which is still quite solid. His 0.37 GVT/GP last season was very good, but not as exceptional as it’s been in the past. At even strength Luongo’s save percentage was an amazing .936, so better discipline among Canuck skaters will result in fewer power plays and help Bobby Lou return to Vezina form.
Legend:
GS: Games Started.
QS: Quality Starts.
WS: Quality Starts that were Wasted (lost) due to lack of offense.
BO: Non-Quality Starts where the goalie was Bailed Out by a good offense.
QS%: Percentage of all starts that were Quality Starts. Over 50% is good.
GR: Games Relieved.
Goalie GS SV% QS WS BO QS% GR MIN SV%
Luongo 54 .920 32 5 6 59.3% - -- --
Schneider 5 .866 1 0 1 20.0% 3 91 .907
Raycroft 27 .899 12 5 5 44.4% 4 121 .787
While he wasn’t exceptionally consistent, the Canucks shouldn’t have to ask for more out of Luongo than delivering Quality Starts almost 60% of the time, like last season. In contrast, Raycroft was a Quality Starter only 44.4% of the time, and was the league’s worst goaltender in relief. With both Schneider and Raycroft projected to remain below replacement-level, Luongo’s health is the key to Vancouver’s success in the net.
Other Players:
The Canucks definitely have some room on their fourth line for forwards like Grabner, Ouellet (should he sign) and Bolduc. Don’t expect much impact above replacement level, however. There’s room for top prospect Cody Hodgson, but it might be another season yet before he wears a Canucks uniform.
Converted to NHL Equivalent
Age Pos Player Lge GP G A PTS
22 RW Michael Grabner AHL 68 13 8 21
27 RW Michel Ouellet AHL 50 6 12 18
24 C Alexandre Bolduc AHL 72 5 10 15
33 D Nolan Baumgartner AHL 74 5 10 15
26 D Aaron Rome AHL 57 3 10 13
26 LW Tanner Glass AHL 48 2 4 6
30 D Lawrence Nycholat AHL 22 0 2 2
23 D Mike Funk AHL 13 0 1 1
Should the Canucks suffer major injuries that chew through their depth on the blue line, they can call on Baumgartner or Rome, who should also play at a replacement level.
Shootout:
Vancouver struggled in the shootout last season, winning only 3 times in 10 opportunities. Luongo was above average in the net, stopping 21 for 29 for a .724 save percentage. Raycroft may actually help, stopping 7 of 8 shots in two games, for a .875 shootout save percentage in limited action.
Offensively, the Canucks would turn to Demitra (3 goals in 7 attempts) and Wellwood (3 for 9). Also of note are the shootout performances of Kesler (1 for 3) and Burrows (1 for 6), with the later being subpar last year. Based on their depth of scorers, the Canucks should be closer to even this season.
Special Teams:
Vancouver was near the middle of the league on both the power play (17th, at 18.8%) and the penalty kill(16th at 81.4%).
The power play is led by the Sedins up front, who combine for a solid 9.2 points per 60 minutes and a PPGFA around 7.00. They are joined on defense by the newest Canucks Ehrhoff and Schneider, both of whom had amazing PPGFA. On defense, Salo, Bieksa and Edler all scored at a rate at least as good as Schneider’s solid 4.4 power-play points per 60 minutes, and with very respectable PPGFA in their own right.
Given the depth of power-play talent on the blue line, the more interesting study is who will be used up front with the Sedin twins. Last year it was Demitra and Wellwood, who were merely average. Kesler, however, was 2nd to Sundin with 5.5 power play points per 60 minutes while Raymond scored 4.5 in limited action. The Canucks also picked up Samuelsson, who scored 5.4 with an amazing 9.47 PPGFA on Detroit’s marvelous power play last season.
Burrows was excellent killing penalties last season, but Kesler’s average performance might present more opportunities for someone like Hansen. Center Ryan Johnson will have to improve if he wants continued shorthanded opportunities. Surprisingly Vancouver’s most effective penalty killer on defense was Bieksa, even though he was arguably their worst defensively at even-strength last year. Mitchell got the bulk of the playing time, but wasn’t as dominant shorthanded as he was at even-strength. Virtually all of the Canuck defensemen have proven penalty killing experience, so even though it’s hard to predict exactly how they’ll assign the roles, they certainly have lots of good options.
Overall:
We project Vancouver to remain at the top of the league offensively, but suffer a noticeable decline in their own end. Nevertheless, we project they’ll remain a top-10 team, repeat as champions of the Northwest division, which will likely mean earning the 3rd playoff seed.
Season GF/G GA/G PTS
2008-09 2.96 2.60 100
2009-10 3.02 2.92 92
We calculate the Canucks have a strong 60.0% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 3.1% chance of bringing the Stanley Cup to Vancouver for the first time since the Millionaires in 1915.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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