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If you haven’t had your fantasy hockey draft yet, then it must be coming up over the next few days. After all, the 2009-10 NHL regular season faces off on October 1st! Now be honest: Are you more excited for the real hockey season to start on the ice or the fantasy hockey season? I hate to admit it, but it’s a tossup for me, and that’s not dissing the real game on the ice.
If you’re scrambling to figure out who to pick in your league, let’s take a few minutes to get you pointed in the right direction, to give you an edge over the other guys on draft night.
Scoring Systems:
As you know, there are many varying fantasy formats and scoring systems. Step number one for you is to understand what kinds of stats, and therefore players, are rewarded in your league.
For instance, one league that I participate in uses Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Penalty Minutes (PIM), Power Play Points, Game Winning Goals (GWG), Wins, Goals Against Average, Save Percentage and Shutouts. What you notice is that Goals and Assists are essentially equally weighted (except GWG, which is pretty random), that players on good teams are rewarded (Particularly Plus/Minus and Wins, but also GWG, GAA and Shutouts), that power play opportunities are important (PPP) and most of all, that netminders are especially key (as a full five of ten categories deal with goaltenders) in this league.
A common format is ESPN’s standard scoring, which includes Goals, Assists, Power Play Goals, Plus/Minus, PIM, Shots On Goal (SOG) and Average Time On Ice (ATOI) for skaters, and Wins, GAA and Save Percentage for goaltenders. Here, Goals count more than Assists (PPG and SOG), players on good teams are rewarded (Particularly Plus/Minus and Wins, but also GAA) and some categories should be very predictable (SOG and ATOI), given health.
Speaking of ESPN scoring, Andrew Rothstein and I recently took part in a mock draft with some of ESPN’s fantasy experts. Be sure that you check out the results and commentary, to get an idea of what some experts out there are thinking about the fantasy hockey outlook for this season. Andrew did VUKOTA proud, grabbing Puck Prospectus’ favorite G Tomas Vokoun as his number one goalie in Round 3 and relatively unheralded F Brad Boyes in Round 8. Yes, you read that right: VUKOTA in fantasy hockey.
Fantasy Hockey Predictions Based On VUKOTA:
Puck Prospectus’ VUKOTA system, created by Tom Awad, gives you a nice starting point for evaluating talent on draft night. While you can search through the player predictions in our current series of team previews for additional information, the following tables collect VUKOTA’s top 20 picks for forwards and defensemen for you. Keep in mind, that depending on whether your scoring system weights Goals and Assists equally or not, you should lean more heavily on the tables ranked by Points or Goals.
Top Forwards In Points
Rank Name Team Age GP Pts
1 Evgeni Malkin PIT 23 80 119
2 Alexander Ovechkin WSH 24 82 118
3 Sidney Crosby PIT 22 74 108
4 Ryan Getzlaf ANA 24 80 91
5 Nicklas Backstrom WSH 22 78 87
6 Ilya Kovalchuk ATL 26 79 87
7 Zach Parise NJD 25 82 84
8 Pavel Datsyuk DET 31 79 82
9 Jarome Iginla CGY 32 77 80
10 Mike Richards PHI 24 76 79
11 Henrik Zetterberg DET 29 75 79
12 Eric Staal CAR 25 81 79
13 Joe Thornton SJS 30 79 78
14 Patrick Kane CHI 21 74 78
15 Rick Nash CLB 25 82 76
16 Jeff Carter PHI 24 79 76
17 Marc Savard BOS 32 74 75
18 Anze Kopitar LAK 22 82 74
19 Jason Spezza OTT 26 80 74
20 Daniel Sedin VAN 29 78 74
Top Forwards In Goals
Rank Name Team Age GP G
1 Alexander Ovechkin WSH 24 82 56
2 Evgeni Malkin PIT 23 80 45
3 Ilya Kovalchuk ATL 26 79 41
4 Sidney Crosby PIT 22 74 40
5 Eric Staal CAR 25 81 38
6 Zach Parise NJD 25 82 38
7 Jeff Carter PHI 24 79 38
8 Rick Nash CLB 25 82 36
9 Thomas Vanek BUF 25 76 35
10 Dany Heatley OTT 28 81 34
11 Jarome Iginla CGY 32 77 34
12 Henrik Zetterberg DET 29 75 33
13 Jonathan Toews CHI 21 77 33
14 Phil Kessel TOR 22 74 33
15 Corey Perry ANA 24 76 32
16 Brad Boyes STL 27 77 31
17 Alexander Semin WSH 25 67 31
18 Anze Kopitar LAK 22 82 31
19 Mike Richards PHI 24 76 30
20 Jason Spezza OTT 26 80 30
Looking at the forwards above, we’re immediately reminded of the fact that hockey is a young man’s game, at least for forwards: VUKOTA’s top 9 predicted Goal scorers are all age 26 or younger. Keep that rule of thumb in mind even in later rounds. When in doubt, go with the young guy. Don’t jump at former All-Stars in their mid-to-late thirties like Jason Arnott, Alexei Kovalev and Daniel Alfredsson until you’re sure they’re a value at that point in the draft.
If you’re trying to decide whether to go with Alex Ovechkin or Evgeni Malkin with the first overall pick in your league, look to see if Shots On Goal is a category. If it is, you absolutely must go with Ovechkin, whose SOG far exceeded any other player’s in the NHL last season. Frankly, I’d only consider Malkin in a league where Goals and Assists were weighted equally and where high SOG are penalized. As for Sid the Kid, sorry, but he comes after both of the young Russians in all formats.
The super special fantasy power boost to keep in mind–which is outside of VUKOTA’s inputs–is the new partnership in San Jose between consummate playmaker Joe Thornton and consummate finisher Dany Heatley. Give yourself a gold star if you pick up one of the two forwards in the first few rounds.
Finally, don’t forget that health is a skill, as Will Carroll says. Washington’s Alexander Semin missed significant time in 2008-09, otherwise he would have been right there with league leaders in scoring. VUKOTA remembers this and pegs him for only 67 games. Clearly, the Capitals’ forward is a top 10 Goals per game talent if you’re willing to roll the dice. Docked even more heavily, down to 52 games, is the Rangers’s Marian Gaborik, putting him off the Top 20 board. VUKOTA predicts 21 G, 24 A, 45 P, wary of two hip surgeries in three years. What VUKOTA also doesn’t know is that Phil Kessel will miss more than a month before he makes his Maple Leafs’ debut, so adjust accordingly.
Top Defensemen In Points
Rank Name Team Age GP Pts
1 Mike Green WSH 24 76 71
2 Dion Phaneuf CGY 24 81 55
3 Mark Streit NYI 32 75 51
4 Shea Weber NAS 24 78 51
5 Andrei Markov MTL 31 69 50
6 Nicklas Lidstrom DET 39 70 50
7 Dan Boyle SJS 33 72 47
8 Brian Rafalski DET 36 68 47
9 Zdeno Chara BOS 32 74 46
10 Dennis Wideman BOS 26 77 45
11 Sheldon Souray EDM 33 70 45
12 Brian Campbell CHI 30 71 45
13 Scott Niedermayer ANA 36 65 45
14 Chris Pronger PHI 35 70 43
15 Jay Bouwmeester CGY 26 75 41
16 Niklas Kronwall DET 28 68 40
17 Ryan Suter NAS 24 75 40
18 Alexander Edler VAN 23 78 39
19 Joe Corvo CAR 32 69 38
20 Tom Gilbert EDM 26 76 38
Top Defensemen In Goals
Rank Name Team Age GP G
1 Mike Green WSH 24 76 21
2 Shea Weber NAS 24 78 16
3 Dion Phaneuf CGY 24 81 13
4 Sheldon Souray EDM 33 70 13
5 Mark Streit NYI 32 75 12
6 Zdeno Chara BOS 32 74 12
7 Dan Boyle SJS 33 72 12
8 Jay Bouwmeester CGY 26 75 11
9 Andrei Markov MTL 31 69 11
10 Dennis Wideman BOS 26 77 11
11 Nicklas Lidstrom DET 39 70 11
12 Anton Babchuk (KHL) 25 67 10
13 Scott Niedermayer ANA 36 65 10
14 Alexander Edler VAN 23 78 10
15 Brian Rafalski DET 36 68 10
16 Joe Corvo CAR 32 69 10
17 Chris Pronger PHI 35 70 10
18 Pavel Kubina ATL 32 72 10
19 Brent Burns MIN 24 70 10
20 Kris Letang PIT 22 63 10
VUKOTA of course predicts some regression to the mean for Paul Coffey, uh, Mike Green. Even with Green continuing to play on-ice with Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin and the other Nicklas Backstrom, you know, the one with a “ck”, it will be extremely difficult for him to replicate his 31 Goals and 73 Points in 2008-09. On the other hand, VUKOTA is very bullish on a rebound by Dion Phaneuf, who frankly had a pretty poor season compared to expectations. Personally, I’m not sold on the Flames and I would pick my spots carefully to go with the likes of Big Dion, Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla and Rene Bourque.
Of the remaining blueliners, remember that Nashville’s Shea Weber has only a limited track record, Edmonton’s Sheldon Souray is best in leagues weighted heavily on Power Play Points and lightly on Plus/Minus and that the best defenseman in Boston is not necessarily a giant named Chara (unless you count PIM). Finally, don’t draft Anton Babchuk, or expect some snickers from your fellow owners. The talented Ukrainian ended up in coach Paul Maurice’s doghouse for most of the playoffs and has now signed with a team in the KHL. You have to think that a bunch of GMs missed the boat on that one.
Top Goaltenders
Rank Name Team Age GP GVT
1 Tim Thomas BOS 35 53 20
2 Jonas Hiller ANA 27 45 16
3 Tomas Vokoun FLA 33 53 16
4 Niklas Backstrom MIN 31 57 15
5 Roberto Luongo VAN 30 53 14
6 Henrik Lundqvist NYR 27 59 12
7 Steve Mason CBJ 21 56 11
8 Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 25 52 11
9 Martin Biron NYI 32 48 11
10 Pekka Rinne NSH 27 47 11
11 Ryan Miller BUF 29 52 10
12 Martin Brodeur NJD 37 39 10
13 Cam Ward CAR 25 57 9
14 Dwayne Roloson NYI 40 41 9
15 Jonas Gustavsson TOR 25 35 9
Goaltenders’ fantasy value is tied into team quality (to get Wins) and–even more than skaters–tied into playing time. Jonas Hiller is VUKOTA’s darling, but the fact is that he will be sharing crease time with Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who is not laying down to be second fiddle. On the other hand, it’s possible that Florida coach Peter DeBoer will see the light with underappreciated and highly talented Tomas Vokoun, giving him a larger split of the playing time with former Brodeur backup Scott Clemmensen than what he received with Craig Anderson.
On the flip side, even if you were, in a moment of weakness, thinking of picking up an Islanders’ goaltender, exactly which of Martin Biron, Dwayne Roloson and Rick DiPietro would you go with? Better wait to see how that split turns out. Toronto’s Swedish import, Jonas Gustavsson, is an intriguing choice as well, but you’re likely better off letting someone else choose him, as the Leafs should only be marginally improved and in addition it is very hard to predict how well he’ll perform and what percentage of starts he’ll get over incumbent Vesa Toskala.
Studying VUKOTA’s leaderboards should give you a head start over your competition in evaluating the first few rounds of talent for your fantasy hockey league. Perusing our VUKOTA team previews should give you some ideas for sleepers in later rounds. Tune in next time for some pointers on who to get into your fantasy lineups!
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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