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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 245 (14th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 251 (T-6th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 238 (T-16th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 243 (T-11th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 91 (T-17th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 97 (7th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 7 (13th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 16 (7th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.11 (7th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.92 (T-10th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.19 (7th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 66.0 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 35.3 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 18.5 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 9.3 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 4.4 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
After an unexpected playoff run – Jonas Hiller stood on his head to shutdown San Jose and take Detroit to seven games – the biggest news of the offseason was the trade of Chris Pronger to Philadelphia for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa and a bunch of draft picks. The downside is pretty obvious: Pronger is one of the best defensemen in the league (even if the Norris Trophy voters don’t think so) and logs a lot of minutes at even-strength, on the power-play and on the penalty-kill.
However, unlike two seasons ago when he and Scott Niedermayer were a pair of #1 defensemen, Niedermayer was clearly #1 last year: he got the toughest matchups, was more likely than Pronger to be on the ice in late-and-close situations and outperformed him on special teams. The Ducks underwent many changes last year as the Brian Burke model was disassembled, and it’s entirely possible that they were convinced Pronger wouldn't be an elite player much longer; Philadelphia disagreed and signed Pronger through 2016. No matter how this plays out, Pronger’s minutes will go to a less-skilled defenseman in 2009-10.
This wasn’t the only change Anaheim made: Niedermayer is the only defenseman left from the last day of the 2007-08 season. While their top two forward lines don’t look a lot different, Burke’s shutdown line of Sami Pahlsson, Travis Moen and Rob Niedermayer wasn’t so shutdown anymore and was unceremoniously disassembled in a matter of months. Of course, though, there are also this year’s feel-good stories: Teemu and Saku teaming up for one last shot at the Stanley Cup; Bobby Ryan’s quest to be the best player ever from New Jersey; and George Parros donating his mustache to charity, just to name a few.
It’s hard to know what to make of this team now – their defensive skill, a strength for many years, is questionable. One huge plus in their favor going into the 2009-10 season with the addition of Saku Koivu to the team and the emergence of Bobby Ryan is that their power-play could be the best in the league. Only one thing’s for certain though: opposing fans won’t have Chris Pronger to kick around anymore.
Statistical Summary
TOI RK SF/60 RK SA/60 RK
5v5 45.4 16 28.6 16 28 22
5v4 5.7 30 61.7 2 6.9 25
4v5 7.3 2 7.7 23 54.9 8
4v4 1.7 20 35.8 5 35 7
The 2008-09 Ducks team had some huge holes in it: for one, they took the second-most penalties in the league, and spent more time killing those penalties than every team except for the Philadelphia Flyers, with Ryan Getzlaf and Rob Niedermayer going from net positive in the penalty-drawing department to significantly negative. Despite having Rob Niedermayer, Pahlsson, Moen and Todd Marchant on the forward roster, along with Scott Niedermayer and Pronger, they were not particularly effective in short-handed situations either– they allowed the 8th-highest penalty killing shot rate in the league and finished 20th in penalty killing efficiency.
Good thing their power-play was the 3rd-best in the league behind Detroit and Washington – because with a merely league-average power-play, they would have scored 16 fewer goals and would have finished with 85 points, tied with Edmonton. The power-play may keep up the high-flying numbers with the additions of Koivu and Lupul, but the Ducks will be in real trouble if they force their penalty-kill unit – with Mike Brown and Petteri Nokelainen 2-3 after Marchant – to play over seven minutes a game again this season.
Even-Strength Defense:
The top defensive pairings from the Ducks’ Stanley Cup winning team were Niedermayer/Pronger and Francois Beauchemin/Sean O’Donnell. Only Niedermayer remains as Anaheim has completely revamped its defensive corps since the end of 2007-08. The only new defenseman who’s clearly a top four defenseman is Ryan Whitney, who had the misfortune of being traded away from the Stanley Cup-winning Penguins. No one among the rest of the crew – mid-season acquisitions James Wisniewski and Sheldon Brookbank, trade acquisition Luca Sbisa, or the free agent acquisition of the Florida Panthers’ triumvirate of Jassen Cullimore, Nick Boynton and Steve Eminger (who spent most of the season in Tampa) – has played a significant role on a good team recently. On the other hand, the defensive crew costs less than the $16 million it would have cost to retain just Niedermayer, Pronger and Beauchemin. There was little choice but to take a hit on defense.
Even-Strength Offense:
Anaheim has been a .500 team at even-strength over the last two seasons, suppressing both shots for and against overall. Perry, Getzlaf, Selanne and Ryan rained shots down mostly on the opposition’s 2nd and 3rd lines, while Niedermayer, Pahlsson and Moen limited both the other team’s 1st line’s scoring opportunities, and their own offensive chances. It would have cost nearly $6M to keep the shutdown line intact, money that Anaheim felt would be better spent on more offense. With Koivu, Lupul and a full season of Ryan and Selanne, Anaheim will manage more shots on goal, and hopefully play the other team’s top lines to a draw – their defensive forwards don’t compare to past units and they can’t count on them to keep their opponents off the board.
Goaltending:
Do you believe in Jonas Hiller? He certainly looked good in limited play two years ago and half-time play last season. He also managed to stand on his head in the playoffs, leading the league in save percentage by a wide margin. Unfortunately for Hiller, that kind of performance is absolutely unsustainable. We know goalies come out of nowhere, and Hiller is a guy who did just that: he was demoted to the Swiss-B league at age 22 and was behind Ilya Bryzgalov on the depth chart two years ago. He certainly looks like a top ten goaltender given his career .926 save percentage over 82 total games in the NHL. Even a regression to .917 would make the Ducks a couple of wins better than last year in the net.
Power-Play:
Permit me a Winnipeg Jets reference: the 1984-85 Jets had six 30-goal scorers on their roster, which remains a record. After adding Saku Koivu and Joffrey Lupul to Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne and Bobby Ryan, the Ducks have a chance to match that. There’s no question that their power-play will be dominant, but the key will be getting enough opportunities. In 2007-08, the Niedermayer/Pahlsson/Moen line drew more than fifty penalties at even-strength. Last year they were ineffective and were shipped off to new homes, and opponent penalties suffered as a result. There’s no reason to expect a resurgence in drawing penalties this season.
Penalty-Kill:
Anaheim wasn’t quite the best in the league at killing penalties since the lockout – that honor belongs to the Minnesota Wild – but they were in the top five in the league. The Niedermayer brothers, Pronger, Pahlsson, Moen and Marchant generally kept their opponents off the board. That fell apart last year as Anaheim took too many penalties and dropped to the bottom ten in the league in penalty killing efficiency. They moved out most of their penalty killers over the last year and didn’t replace them with similarly-skilled players. Unless Anaheim finds skilled defensive players that they didn’t know they had before, their penalty killing unit will continue to be in the bottom-half of the league.
Roster:
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Ryan Getzlaf F 24 79.5 29.5 61.3 90.8 13.7 3.7 0.1 17.6
Corey Perry F 24 76.4 32.4 39.4 71.8 10.7 3.1 0.2 13.9
Bobby Ryan F 22 66.1 29.5 29.2 58.7 9.4 2.5 -0.1 11.8
Joffrey Lupul F 26 66.3 21.7 25.7 47.5 6.5 1.7 -0.1 8.1
Saku Koivu F 35 63.0 15.2 30.7 45.9 5.4 1.9 0.0 7.4
Teemu Selanne F 39 56.2 17.9 22.4 40.3 5.0 1.2 0.0 6.2
Andrew Ebbett F 26 53.3 10.8 21.3 32.1 2.9 1.7 0.0 4.6
Erik Christensen F 26 55.8 9.1 17.3 26.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.4
Ryan Carter F 26 47.6 6.5 9.1 15.6 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5
Matt Beleskey F 21 29.0 5.4 6.7 12.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3
Troy Bodie F 24 28.8 4.8 6.0 10.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2
Todd Marchant F 36 57.0 6.3 9.4 15.7 -0.2 1.2 0.0 1.0
Petteri Nokelainen F 23 51.4 6.4 7.2 13.6 -0.4 1.0 0.0 0.6
George Parros F 30 56.3 3.6 4.5 8.0 -1.3 1.1 0.0 -0.2
Mike Brown F 24 46.0 4.1 5.5 9.7 -1.2 0.6 0.0 -0.6
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Scott Niedermayer D 36 64.8 10.3 34.4 44.6 7.2 3.7 -0.1 10.9
James Wisniewski D 25 58.0 5.6 19.3 24.9 3.3 3.4 0.0 6.7
Ryan Whitney D 26 56.6 6.3 22.9 29.2 3.6 2.5 0.0 6.1
Nick Boynton D 30 60.1 3.6 12.2 15.8 1.3 2.3 0.0 3.7
Brian Salcido D 24 28.6 1.8 6.1 7.9 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.8
Sheldon Brookbank D 29 47.3 1.3 6.0 7.3 -0.5 1.9 0.0 1.4
Brendan Mikkelson D 22 44.1 1.1 5.0 6.2 -0.8 1.6 0.0 0.7
Luca Sbisa D 28 43.0 1.3 7.1 8.5 -0.2 0.8 0.0 0.6
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Jonas Hiller G 27 44.8 15.4 0.9 16.3
Jean-Sebastien Giguere G 32 38.3 5.0 0.0 5.0
Outlook:
The Anaheim Ducks have certainly been remade in a short time. A defense-heavy team put together a great power-play last season, and most of this year’s offseason moves were made with an eye to improving the forward lines while avoiding embarrassment in the defensive corps. A full season of Jonas Hiller should improve goal prevention, which makes the Ducks just slightly better than they were last year, but with the San Jose Sharks unlikely to live up to the hype they are receiving, Anaheim might just have enough to win the Pacific Division title.
Gabriel Desjardins is an author of Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey site behindthenet.ca. You can contact him at info at behindthenet.ca. | 
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