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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 264 (T-4th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 273 (2nd on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 216 (5th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 238 (T-4th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 104 (6th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 106 (T-1st in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 48 (4th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 40 (1st Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.36 (2nd on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.87 (5th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.49 (1st Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 83.6 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 54.9 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 35.3 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 22.2 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 12.8 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
The Chicago Blackhawks had one of the more interesting offseasons of the past decade. Chicago signed Marian Hossa away from their Central divisional foes, the Detroit Red Wings, on a 12 year deal that also led to Hossa's friend and Red Wing at the time Tomas Kopecky signing with the Blackhawks on the very same day. Unfortunately, the Windy City found out that Hossa won't be ready to skate until at least November because of a shoulder injury he suffered last season in Detroit.
Not everyone was pleased with this move, though, as Marty Havlat felt betrayed and blindsided by Chicago's signing because there would be no room left under the cap to re-sign the often injured forward. Havlat signed with Minnesota, but didn't forget about what Chicago had done to him. The Wild's new acquisition made obscure comments on Twitter stating "there's something to be said for loyalty," and "lot's of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn't the fans know the truth?" Obviously, Havlat felt that he couldn't trust the Chicago organization anymore, though the Hawks simply did what they thought was best for the organization going forward.
Then there was the front office debacle, which drew unwanted attention to Chicago's management. Former General Manager Dave Tallon was tardy in getting qualifying offers to restricted free agents, such as the talented youngster Kris Versteeg, which led to the Blackhawks damaging their long-term salary cap flexibility. With a possible dynasty slowly becoming a one time shot at a Stanley Cup, the Hawks replaced Tallon with Scotty Bowman's son, Stan Bowman, as the GM.
If you thought things couldn't possibly get worse, think again. During the early hours of the morning in Buffalo, NY just several weeks ago, the 20 year old Patrick Kane, along with his cousin James Kane, attacked a cab driver over a few measly dollars. Both Kanes were given conditional discharges, and Patrick has put the incident behind him so far in the preseason. It appears that this is one distraction that shouldn't interfere with the Blackhawks this year.
The biggest question on everyone's mind now in Chicago, though, is whether Cristobal Huet can fill in for Nikolai Khabibulin and whether the former Canadien will be a liability in the Blackhawks quest to end the longest Stanley Cup drought in the National Hockey League.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Patrick Kane F 21 74.3 30.0 47.6 77.5 12.2 2.2 0.1 14.5
Jonathan Toews F 21 77.2 33.1 39.8 72.9 11.2 3.2 0.1 14.5
Marian Hossa F 30 66.3 27.6 32.8 60.4 10.6 3.0 0.0 13.6
Kris Versteeg F 23 67.4 22.3 32.7 54.9 8.5 2.7 0.0 11.2
Patrick Sharp F 28 68.2 26.4 25.2 51.6 7.5 2.6 -0.1 10.0
Dave Bolland F 23 68.7 19.2 28.9 48.1 6.4 3.1 -0.1 9.4
Andrew Ladd F 24 69.7 16.5 25.9 42.5 4.9 3.1 0.0 8.0
Dustin Byfuglien F 24 64.7 16.7 20.2 37.0 3.9 1.8 0.0 5.7
John Madden F 36 62.1 9.4 15.1 24.5 1.2 1.5 0.0 2.7
Jack Skille F 22 32.3 6.1 6.8 12.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4
Jacob Dowell F 24 30.5 5.2 6.3 11.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.3
Colin Fraser F 24 65.1 6.1 9.7 15.9 -0.4 1.7 0.0 1.3
Adam Burish F 26 58.1 6.5 5.8 12.4 -0.8 1.4 0.0 0.5
Tomas Kopecky F 27 60.9 5.7 9.7 15.4 -0.6 1.1 0.0 0.5
The first line for the 2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks will include Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp.
Patrick Kane is one of the two faces of the franchise for this new Chicago team that could be a perennial contender. There's no doubt that new GM Stan Bowman will have his work cut out for him in trying to re-sign the 20 year old star who becomes a restricted free agent after this season. Teams throughout the National Hockey League will be hoping that the Blackhawks are put in the same situation with Kane as the Bruins were with Kessel. The Buffalo native is predicted by VUKOTA to be much more productive this season with a 14.5 GVT than he was last year, when he produced a 9.7 GVT. While 30 goals is a good estimate, Kane is capable of a few more pucks in the net, so expect 35 goals, 50 assists and 85 points for the right winger. The downside to those numbers could be that, if he manages to re-sign, most of the other restricted free agents will be departing Chicago because of the amount of money Kane would be able to command.
The other face of the franchise plays alongside Kane as the first line center. Jonathan Toews was more productive than his talented counterpart last season, but isn't in for nearly as big of a breakout season as Kane is. At only 21 years of age, Toews managed to be the second best forward on his team last year. Such a remarkable feat would seem difficult to repeat, but with Havlat gone, it shouldn't be surprising to find the Canadian as the best player on his team in 2009-10. VUKOTA believes the center is capable of 73 points this year, and that seems entirely reasonable. However, given that the 3rd overall pick of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft had 69 points last year, it's entirely possible that he can reach 80 points this year with the way he's been developing. The second of the big three restricted free agents after this season, Bowman might have a very difficult choice in deciding between keeping Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews on board.
The veteran Sharp has been skating with Dustin Byfuglien and newcomer Tomas Kopecky on the second line in camp and in the preseason, but don't buy into this newly created line going forward yet. Hawks coach Joel Quenneville is likely just juggling lines, so there's still a strong chance of the Sharp-Toews-Kane line remaining intact for 2009-10. VUKOTA believes that Sharp's knee injury during the stretch last year could slow him down a bit this year with its projection of only 68 games played. If this is the case, then the 27 year old might only be marginally better than last year. However, if the Winnipeg native can stay healthy throughout the season, his GVT becomes 12 instead of 10. Either way, the former Flyer is still a top-six forward who will be an integral part of this team in its championship run as Stanley Cup favorites.
The second line will likely include the likes of Marian Hossa when he returns to the ice, along with Dave Bolland and Kris Versteeg. Hossa had an astounding 19.7 GVT in only 74 games played last year, which could be hard for any 30 year old to replicate, except the Czech native is no ordinary hockey player. A lot will depend on Hossa's recovery timetable and whether the shoulder injury hinders his performance when he comes back to the ice. VUKOTA believes he'll miss 12 games, be ready by early November and will return to his old superstar form. I'm a bit more skeptical of that projection, and I'm not sure that the best case scenario is the right scenario in this situation. If he could come back by December and return to his old form within one month, then things should be fine for the Hawks postseason run. Of course, the word 'Hossa' and the phrase 'postseason run' never seem to go together well.
The third line should consist of Andrew Ladd, the newly acquired John Madden, and Dustin Byfuglien. Ladd, who was traded by Carolina to Chicago during the 2007-08 season, is one of the more underrated forwards in the league. The 4th overall selection in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft, Ladd posted a very good 10.1 GVT last season, while managing to play in each of the 82 games. However, unlike some of his other early twenties teammates, VUKOTA isn't buying that the British Columbia native is as good as last year would suggest. Still, an 8 GVT in 70 games played is very respectable, and the left winger will continue to improve his game over the next couple of seasons. Ladd, who has known Seabrook, Brouwer and Fraser since his childhood, will likely have his last stint with Chicago, given that he's slated to become a restricted free agent after this season.
Coach Quenneville's fourth line is still up in the air between the likes of Ben Eager, Tomas Kopecky, Colin Fraser, Troy Brouwer and Adam Burish. With Burish out for the majority of the season, the final line should include Ben Eager, Tomas Kopecky and Colin Fraser.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Brian Campbell D 30 71.1 8.9 36.1 45.0 6.9 5.3 0.0 12.1
Duncan Keith D 26 76.1 8.4 29.1 37.5 5.3 6.5 0.0 11.7
Brent Seabrook D 24 74.1 8.0 25.1 33.2 4.4 5.4 0.0 9.8
Cam Barker D 23 60.7 8.9 28.0 36.9 6.1 3.2 0.0 9.3
Aaron Johnson D 26 48.0 2.5 7.8 10.3 0.5 2.9 0.0 3.4
Richard Petiot D 27 33.0 1.6 6.5 8.2 0.6 1.6 0.0 2.1
Brent Sopel D 32 41.1 1.8 7.5 9.4 0.5 1.6 0.0 2.1
Niklas Hjalmarsson D 22 41.1 2.0 6.8 8.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.9
Jordan Hendry D 25 35.5 1.5 5.0 6.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.2
The Hawks are likely to split up their top two defensemen over the first two pairings. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook will likely skate together as the first pair. As one of the assistant captains, the 26 year old Duncan will bare a lot of the responsibilities for how the entire defense does this year. Known as one of the best shutdown defenseman in the game, Duncan can close on any forward with his exceptional skating ability and explosiveness. While we hear the usual suspects as the candidates for the Norris Trophy every year, Nicklas Lidstrom, Mike Green and Zdeno Chara, Duncan is one name that should be in the discussion more often. The 54th overall selection in the 2002 NHL Entry draft had an impressive 14.8 GVT last season, which would put him up there with the best forwards, let alone defensemen. VUKOTA thinks he'll have a slight setback this season, but an 11.7 GVT is nothing to scoff at for the 26 year old southpaw. On the bright side, it could lead to Bowman being able to retain the final third of the big restricted free agents for Chicago next offseason.
The second pairing will likely include the expensive, yet talented Brian Campbell, and a younger defender, such as Niklas Hjalmarsson. Campbell receives a lot of flak for his contract, 8 years, $7.1 million per, which he isn't worth. However, he isn't the horrible investment that some make him out to be. Additionally, he allegedly took less money to stay with Chicago, which can be taken as a sign that he wanted to remain a Blackhawk. VUKOTA believes that his GVT will rise from 9.7 to a Chicago fourth-best 12.1. He's slightly better offensively than he is defensively, but he's still an all-around solid defenseman. If you want to consider intangibles, which I tend not to, he's also one to voice his opinion of others, especially if they wear red and white. Last year, he called Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall "gutless" for a hit on 2008-09 teammate Marty Havlat. Campbell is definitely a blueliner you want on your team when you're going up against your divisional rival.
Coach Quenneville's final pairing will come down to Jordan Hendry, Cam Barker, Aaron Johnson, and Brent Sopel. Barker and Johnson, the top two defensemen of that bunch, should get the call to be together for the third pairing. Barker, a 23 year old southpaw, is projected by VUKOTA to be nearly as productive as Brent Seabrook. However, prorated for the amount of time VUKOTA sees Seabrook playing, Barker would in fact be a more productive player. Overall, Quenneville can't go wrong with any of his top-six defensemen, who are all talented and can impact the Chicago lineup in a postive way.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Cristobal Huet G 34 37.4 6.3 -0.1 6.2
Corey Crawford G 25 14.4 1.4 0.0 1.3
Antti Niemi G 26 14.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Nikolai Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet will forever be linked, now that the later has taken the place of the former. While the current Oilers goaltender posted a stellar 14.3 GVT last season, VUKOTA sees a major regression to a pedestrian 5.8 GVT this season. In fact, Huet's VUKOTA projection of 6.2 is better for the 2009-10 campaign than Khabibulin's is. Then again, we've all seen how former Canadien goaltenders do after putting up good numbers in Montreal. Nonetheless, the 34 year old should be the equivalent of Khabibulin in the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is that he's as good as he was in Montreal and is much better than people expect.
Coach Quenneville has suggested that Crawford and Niemi are tied for the backup job, so either one could end up in Rockford by tomorrow. Considering that they are both around the same age, have the same amount of talent and VUKOTA expects both to produce relatively the same in the net, Quenneville will likely rotate the two as backups, unless either of them really stands out.
Special Teams:
Last year, Chicago was 9th on the power-play with a 7.2 GVT and 12th in power-play efficiency with a 19.3 % scoring rate, while they were 15th on the penalty kill with a 2.7 GVT, and tied for 17th with Washington with an 80.6 % goal prevention rate. Campbell, Toews, Sharp, Kane and Barker should all see significant minutes on the power-play again this year, so don't expect much of a change. However, given that the majority of these skaters are in for better offensive seasons this year, their power-play ranking might go up into the top five power-play units in the league. As for their penalty killing, Seabrook and Keith should both see the most minutes on the ice again this year. With Huet not likely to be as big of a liability in the net as many think, the penalty killing unit should remain ranked around the 15th to 20th range.
Conclusion:
The Chicago Blackhawks have what it takes to win their first Stanley Cup in nearly 48 years, and they should go into this season as the NHL favorites. If Chicago finds itself in the Stanley Cup Finals, it could very well be in a matchup with Washington, in a seven game classic that ends with the Blackhawks hoisting the Cup at the end of the day. Get used to hearing "Chelsea Dagger" by The Fratellis because there will be plenty of goal scoring and wins at the United Center. We know what the offense is capable of and we know what the defense is capable of, so Cristobal Huet is going to be the key to the Blackhawks success. If Huet ends up being decent and not a liability, as VUKOTA believes, then Chicago should start making plans for a Chicago Blackhawks Stanley Cup party in Grant Park in June.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
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