November 2, 2009
Numbers On Ice
Better Lucky Than Good?

by Tom Awad

We are now one month into the NHL season. Some teams have surprised us: Colorado Avalanche, feel free to move to the front of the line. Some teams have disappointed us: if you’re the Vancouver Canucks, we’re talking to you. Then there are other teams, although some would have had you believe they were contenders, that have been exactly as good as we expected them to be.

However, it is only one month. The more important issue, whether your team has been good or bad, is: is this really my team? Is this the level of play I can expect for 82 games, in addition to the playoffs?

Thirteen games is a small sample, so we cannot simply look at a team’s record and try to extrapolate their performance down the line. Rather, we must look for what many bloggers call their “underlying statistics”, by which they mean their shot differentials. Mudcrutch, JLikens and Vic Ferrari have all shown that shooting and save percentages, especially at even strength, regress to the mean, which means that teams with high shooting and save percentages will not be able to maintain them over the long run. This is not 100% true (Dominic Hasek, for example, maintained stratospheric save percentages for several seasons), but it’s the rule rather than the exception. By contrast, shot differentials, which contain much more data (there are 11 times more shots than goals in an NHL game), are more precise and therefore better represent what a team will be able to accomplish in the long run. Therefore, to determine if your team has been good or merely lucky, look at the shot differentials.

Here is a table of all 30 NHL teams, ranked by shot differential so far this season:

Legend:

GP: Games Played

GF: Goals For

SF: Shots For

GA: Goals Against

SA: Shots Against

Goal_D: Goal Difference

Shot_D: Shot Difference

	Team	        GP	GF	SF	GA	SA      Goal_D	Shot_D
1	Blackhawks	13	38	434	30	295	 8	139
2	Penguins	14	44	477	31	366	13	111
3	Red Wings	12	38	408	40	341     -2	 67
4	Sabres	        11	32	390	24	323	 8	 67
5	Canucks	        14	37	452	41	398	-4	 54
6	Flyers	        11	38	377	31	324	 7	 53
7	Coyotes	        13	33	397	25	358	 8	 39
8	Senators	12	37	376	36	338	 1	 38
9	Stars	        14	48	439	41	403	 7	 36
10	Maple Leafs	12	30	395	49	360    -19	 35
11	Devils	        12	28	368	28	338	 0	 30
12	Sharks	        14	46	438	36	413	10	 25
13	Kings	        14	46	393	40	380	 6	 13
14	Canadiens	14	36	421	45	413	-9	  8
15	Capitals	13	47	413	38	409	 9	  4
16	Hurricanes	12	26	370	43	372    -17	 -2
17	Blue Jackets	12	37	356	41	361	-4	 -5
18	Predators	13	27	372	37	383    -10	-11
19	Bruins	        12	31	350	33	363	-2	-13
20	Wild	        14	30	383	42	399    -12	-16
21	Rangers	        14	49	402	39	420	10	-18
22	Lightning	11	30	320	32	344	-2	-24
23	Blues	        12	29	333	33	362	-4	-29
24	Islanders	13	33	395	39	434	-6	-39
25	Flames	        12	43	303	39	364	 4	-61
26	Ducks	        12	33	344	41	426	-8	-82
27	Thrashers	10	34	262	28	346	 6	-84
28	Panthers	12	30	340	43	437    -13	-97
29	Avalanche	14	44	358	29	477	15     -119
30	Oilers	        14	42	353	42	472	 0     -119

This is clearly a different table from the current standings. The #1 overall team, the Colorado Avalanche, here ranks 29th, while the worst overall team, the Maple Leafs, here places a respectable 10th. In both cases we blame goaltending: while Colorado has received the best goaltending so far this season from Craig Anderson, the Leafs insisted on playing Vesa Toskala, with predictable results. Yet the percentages on offense have also contributed: while Colorado’s 12.3% shooting percentage is 3rd in the league, behind only Calgary and Atlanta, Toronto’s 7.6% places them 28th. While Colorado is due for some dropoff, the Leafs’ percentages may, sadly, adequately reflect the talent level of the roster. This is a team whose first line features Jiri Tlusty.

What is impressive about this list, in my mind, is how it more accurately reflects the preseason expectations of teams than do the current standings. The top 6 teams are Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo, Vancouver and Philadelphia: all except for Buffalo were expected to be Stanley Cup contenders. The bottom 4 teams are Atlanta, Florida, Colorado and Edmonton: again, all teams picked by most previews (including PuckProspectus) to finish in the bottom half of the league, except for Florida.

So what are the lessons from this analysis?

• The Avalanche shouldn’t start planning their Stanley Cup parade just yet, unless Anderson really turns out to be the second coming of Patrick Roy. Even then, there’s no way their young guns can keep up this offense all season.
• The Red Wings and Canucks aren’t as bad as they seem. When we did the VUKOTA projections at ESPN, we only ranked Vancouver as a 6 in goaltending because their backups were so weak. Lo and behold, Luongo is injured and Vancouver let in 7 goals to Anaheim on 34 shots.
• The Carolina Hurricanes and Nashville Predators will score goals eventually. The Hurricanes never were as good as people made them out to be during their playoff run last year; nor are they as bad as they seem today.
• The Sabres are real. While Miller will eventually cool down, their scorers have actually underperformed so far and are due for a burst. There’s no way Derek Roy maintains a 0.0% shooting percentage all year.
• Amazingly, it seems as if the Coyotes are actually good as well. While Ilya Bryzgalov has been a star, their forwards have also underperformed.
• Dear Ron Wilson: your team is not that bad. You have a decent goaltender on your hands. Play the Monster! He may not be the second Lundqvist, but he’ll be good enough.
• The Blackhawks are really good. They have the best shot differential in the league, and given their depth I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues. The blue line is key: with Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Brian Campbell, the Blackhawks might have the best top 3 anywhere in the league. Cristobal Huet has been sharp in the last 4 games after a sluggish start to the year. Imagine this team with Marian Hossa.
• The Penguins are really, really good. Last season the Penguins had the NHL’s 2nd-best shooting percentage, behind only Boston. With Malkin and Crosby it’s likely their hot start is no fluke, though Malkin's injury might slow them down in the short-term. They now have two high-end quarterbacks, with Sergei Gonchar and Alex Goligoski, which means they’re outshooting the opposition by 8 shots a game. They're also receiving great contributions in the net, with Marc-Andre Fleury providing outstanding goaltending for the Penugins. Forget the Avalanche: the Penguins are the team to beat. Good luck keeping up with them.

Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.