|
You can't just buy yourself a championship in the new NHL. Even if you somehow get your hands on the league's best players through the draft and shrewd trades, you still have to find a way to pay them all and fit under the salary cap. The key to building a successful team is to identify which players offer the best value for the dollar and manage your roster accordingly.
We measure a player's contributions using GVT, which compares all of a player's contributions -- offensively, defensively, in the nets and in shootouts -- to those of a replacement-level NHL player. Given that some players make big bucks, it's reasonable to expect them to play at a far higher level, which is why we use GVS to compare them to players of the same salary. The teams that will succeed in the NHL are the ones that get the best bang for the buck, and right now, that includes the Colorado Avalanche.
Bang For The Buck: Goalies
Legend:
Sal: The player's salary cap hit (in millions)
eGVT: The expected GVT contribution based on salary cap hit
GVT: The player's actual GVT contribution as of Oct. 30
GVS: The player's value per dollar, measured in goals
Best Value Goalies
Goalie Team Sal eGVT GVT GVS
Craig Anderson Colorado 1.8 0.6 11.7 11.1
Ryan Miller Buffalo 6.3 1.8 9.5 7.6
Marc-Andre Fleury Pittsburgh 5.0 2.0 6.1 4.1
Ilya Bryzgalov Phoenix 4.3 1.7 5.7 4.0
Jason LaBarbera Phoenix 1.0 0.2 3.2 3.0
Worst Value Goalies
Goalie Team Sal eGVT GVT GVS
Carey Price Montreal 2.2 0.7 -2.3 -3.0
Chris Osgood Detroit 1.4 0.4 -3.6 -4.0
Steve Mason Columbus 0.9 0.2 -3.9 -4.1
Josh Harding Minnesota 1.1 0.3 -4.9 -5.2
Vesa Toskala Toronto 4.0 1.3 -6.5 -7.8
In our Summer Skate series, our analysis revealed that Craig Anderson would be the ideal offseason move for the Colorado Avalanche. They obviously came to the same conclusion, as they inked Florida's backup goaltender to a two-year deal that imposes a cap hit of about $1.8 million on them this season. For that price, Anderson would have to be only marginally better than a replacement-level goaltender to earn his keep. But instead, he's been the league's best. The 11 goals Anderson has prevented this season have made all the difference in Colorado's stunning start.
Given their salaries, much more is expected of Buffalo's Ryan Miller, Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury and Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov. However, all three of them are finding ways to not only earn their extra dough, but also contribute at a level more than three times higher than necessary. Making the right choices in nets is key in the salary cap era, and that's why these teams are off to amazing starts.
Last season's worst value was Vesa Toskala, whose disappointing performance and hefty salary cost Toronto 28.5 goals. Unfortunately, Toskala is playing even worse this season, and if GM Brian Burke didn't have to hand Toskala $4 million, he could have used the cap space to sign players who could add or prevent almost eight goals to the Maple Leafs' bottom line, according to our calculations. While that might not be enough to claw them very far out of the basement, it definitely would have helped them earn more than one victory.
You don't need to get paid the big bucks to cost your team points, based on how much damage backup goalie Josh Harding has done to the Minnesota Wild for barely a million in cap space. Harding, Columbus' Steve Mason and Detroit's Chris Osgood (who was the fourth worst value in goal last season) prove that struggling goalies hurt your team no matter how little they're paid.
Bang For The Buck: Skaters
Legend:
Sal: The player's salary cap hit (in millions)
eGVT: The expected GVT contribution based on salary cap hit
GVT: The player's actual GVT contribution as of Oct. 30
GVS: The player's value per dollar, measured in goals
Best Value Skaters
Skater Team Sal eGVT GVT GVS
Dustin Penner Edmonton 4.3 1.8 5.6 3.8
Zach Parise New Jersey 3.0 1.0 4.6 3.6
James Neal Dallas 0.7 0.1 3.6 3.5
Alex Goligoski Pittsburgh 1.3 0.3 3.8 3.5
Nicklas Backstrom Washington 0.9 0.2 3.4 3.2
Worst Value Skaters
Skater Team Sal eGVT GVT GVS
David Legwand Nashville 5.0 2.0 -0.9 -2.9
Jason Spezza Ottawa 8.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0
Vincent Lecavalier Tampa Bay 10.0 3.5 0.4 -3.1
Shawn Horcoff Edmonton 7.0 3.1 -0.5 -3.6
Martin Erat Nashville 5.3 -1.6 -1.6 -3.7
Eyebrows were raised all over Edmonton when GM Kevin Lowe signed the young giant to such a huge contract just more than two years ago, but Dustin Penner has really responded this season under new coach Pat Quinn. Given the even bigger bucks the Oilers have been shelling out to Shawn Horcoff, they have a right to expect more than five points and a minus-8 rating.
Last season, Zach Parise was second only to Evgeni Malkin as the best value in the league among skaters, and the young Devil is off to the same pace even with his modest salary bump. Nicklas Backstrom is another skater making a return to the top five, but since he will be a restricted free agent after the season, this could be the last year the Capitals can get him at such a bargain price.
At the other end of the ice, the slow start in Nashville is due in no small part to the underachievement of two of the league's worst values, David Legwand and Martin Erat. For a combined salary cap hit of more than $10 million, they have contributed only one goal, three assists and a minus-16 rating. There's no way a team can compete in the new NHL with such poor return on investment.
Vincent Lecavalier of Tampa Bay and Jason Spezza of Ottawa are two highly paid superstars on whom their teams rely. Given the tremendous cap space it costs to keep them on the rosters, it's not enough that they simply play well; they need to absolutely dominate at both ends of the ice. With only three goals between them so far this season, they're putting their teams at tremendous disadvantages against teams with smarter signings, like Dallas with James Neal and Pittsburgh with Alex Goligoski.
Successful management of cap space is critical to NHL teams' success. Colorado's Greg Sherman invested in Anderson and a roster of young talent, while Ray Shero complemented Pittsburgh's superstars with young talent like Fleury and Goligoski, and both teams sit atop their respective conferences. Toronto's Burke and Nashville GM David Poile should be studying those models carefully and seeking to avoid disappointing investments like Toskala, Legwand and Erat in the future.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider  .
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads