Puck Prospectus - Numbers On Ice: GVT Player Evaluations

March 5, 2009
Numbers On Ice
GVT Player Evaluations

by Tom Awad

With under 20 games left in the season and the trade deadline passed, it’s time to dole out the awards at the ľ mark of the season. To allocate my awards, I use GVT (Goals Versus Threshold), an objective player evaluation method that combines all of a player’s statistics and calculates his contribution in 4 categories: offensive, defensive, goaltending and shootout. I will delve into GVT in more detail in future columns; for now, all that matter is to know that GVT is measured in goals, so a player with a GVT of 20 has contributed 20 goals beyond what a marginal player would have contributed. For those of you who come to us from the baseball world, GVT is very similar to VORP.

Instead of saving the best for last, I’m going to go straight to the point: who has been the MVP of the NHL this season? I’m expecting most people to answer Alexander Ovechkin or possibly Evgeni Malkin if the Penguins make the playoffs (as if winning that 82nd game has an impact on how valuable Malkin really was). This shows that hockey fans (and analysts) live in a fictitious world: when pressed, everybody spits out some platitudes about how the goaltender is the most important position in pro sports, yet goaltenders almost never win the Hart trophy as MVP. GVT puts the lie to those claims: most seasons, the NHL MVP is a goaltender, and this year has so far been no exception:

Legend:

Val OG: Offensive value for position players, Goaltending value for goaltenders

Val D: Defensive value

Val S: Shootout value

Best overall players

     Name	        Team(s)      P  Val OG  Val D  Val S    Total

1  Tim Thomas	        Bruins	     G	26.4   -0.3	0.5	26.5
2  Niklas Backstrom     Wild	     G	21.1	0.6	3.4	25.1
3  Tomas Vokoun	        Panthers     G	22.9   -1.1	1.7	23.5
4  Mike Green	        Capitals     D	14.1	6.6	0.0	20.7
5  Pavel Datsyuk        Red Wings    F	14.2	4.9	1.3	20.4
6  Zach Parise	        Devils	     F	15.1	4.0	0.6	19.8
7  Alexander Ovechkin   Capitals     F	16.9	2.4    -0.4	19.0
8  Evgeni Malkin        Penguins     F	15.3	3.8    -0.4	18.7
9  Pekka Rinne*	        Predators    G	16.2	0.1	2.4	18.7
10 Alexander Semin      Capitals     F	12.8	4.5	0.6	18.0
11 Ryan Miller	        Sabres	     G	15.7   -0.6	2.5	17.7
12 Mike Richards        Flyers	     F	11.9	4.4	0.3	16.5
13 Patrick Marleau      Sharks	     F	10.4	5.3	0.7	16.4
14 Marian Hossa         Red Wings    F	12.4	3.2	0.6	16.2
15 Simon Gagne	        Flyers	     F	10.8	4.3	0.3	15.4
16 Henrik Lundqvist     Rangers	     G	10.6   -0.1	4.5	15.1
17 Joe Thornton         Sharks	     F	10.7	4.3	0.0	15.0
18 David Krejci         Bruins	     F	10.7	4.3    -0.0	15.0
19 Nicklas Lidstrom     Red Wings    D	8.0	6.9	0.0	15.0
20 Steve Mason*         Blue Jackets G	13.7	1.2	0.1	15.0
21 Jeff Carter	        Flyers	     F	13.4	2.3    -1.4	14.3
22 Jonas Hiller         Ducks	     G	10.8   -0.1	3.4	14.1
23 Patrik Elias         Devils	     F	11.1	2.3	0.6	13.9
24 Mark Streit	        Islanders    D	7.8	6.1	0.0	13.9
25 Brian Rafalski       Red Wings    D	9.5	4.3	0.0	13.8
26 Dan Boyle	        Sharks	     D	8.3	5.1	0.3	13.7
27 Henrik Zetterberg    Red Wings    F	9.8	2.8	0.6	13.2
28 Nicklas Backstrom    Capitals     F	10.2	2.5	0.3	12.9
29 Dennis Wideman       Bruins	     D	7.4	5.5	0.0	12.9
30 Rob Blake	        Sharks	     D	6.2	6.7	0.0	12.9
31 Marc Savard	        Bruins	     F	11.3	2.5    -1.0	12.8
32 Shea Weber	        Predators    D	6.5	6.2	0.0	12.7
33 Jamie Langenbrunner	Devils	     F	7.0	4.0	1.6	12.7
34 Jason Blake	        Maple Leafs  F	8.1	2.5	2.0	12.6
35 Ilya Kovalchuk       Thrashers    F	11.9	1.0    -0.4	12.6

Okay, time to come clean: not many of you had picked Tim Thomas and Niklas Backstrom as #1 and #2, did you? While Thomas’ presence should come as no surprise given the Bruins’ success this season, Backstrom is a bit more shocking. The Wild are 2nd in the NHL in goals-against (fittingly, behind the Bruins) and while they play a solid defensive game, Backstrom has maintained a .925 SV% over almost 1500 shots against. Maybe now people understand why the Wild were willing to throw $24m at him.

The sentimental favorite, Ovechkin, slots in 7th place, not even first on his team: that honor goes to Mike Green, who I’ll get back to later on. Pavel Datsyuk is the top forward in 5th place, a ranking that I think few could dispute given his superb offensive and defensive play.

As should be the case, the list is dominated by players from the top teams: there are four Bruins, four Sharks (led by Patrick Marleau, enjoying a renaissance year), five Red Wings, four Capitals and three Devils. I hope that when people look at how well the Devils did in the absence of Martin Brodeur, they think of Zach Parise, and stop complaining how the Devils are a “boring” team.

As interesting as who is on this list is who’s not: Sidney Crosby, who crashed into 38th place in the total standings. The Penguins’ mediocre season implies to some extent that their star players aren’t tearing it up, and that’s certainly true in Sid’s case. While his offensive numbers are still impressive, Sid gets A LOT of ice time, far more than a Datsyuk, Zetterberg or Thornton, and his defensive play, like many of the Penguins, is poor; he’s +3 on the same team as Malkin who’s +17.

Let’s move on to the defensemen:

Best defensemen

        Name                 Team(s)    P       Val OG  Val D   Val S   Total

1	Mike Green	    Capitals	D	14.1	6.6	0.0	20.7
2	Nicklas Lidstrom    Red Wings	D	8.0	6.9	0.0	15.0
3	Mark Streit	    Islanders	D	7.8	6.1	0.0	13.9
4	Brian Rafalski	    Red Wings	D	9.5	4.3	0.0	13.8
5	Dan Boyle	    Sharks	D	8.3	5.1	0.3	13.7
6	Dennis Wideman	    Bruins	D	7.4	5.5	0.0	12.9
7	Rob Blake	    Sharks	D	6.2	6.7	0.0	12.9
8	Shea Weber	    Predators	D	6.5	6.2	0.0	12.7
9	Duncan Keith	    Blackhawks	D	4.9	6.9	0.0	11.8
10	Andrei Markov	    Canadiens	D	8.4	2.8	0.3	11.5
11	Zdeno Chara	    Bruins	D	6.1	4.4    -0.3	10.2
12	Kyle Quincey*	    Kings	D	4.1	5.9	0.0	9.9
13	Filip Kuba	    Senators	D	2.7	7.1	0.0	9.9
14	Ian White	    Maple Leafs	D	3.5	6.2	0.0	9.7
15	Marc-Edouard Vlasic Sharks	D	2.9	6.7	0.0	9.7

I don’t think people realize how far ahead of his peers Green is in terms of offensive output. He’s far and away first in defenseman scoring even though he missed 10 games, and his pace of 1.1 points/game puts him among the top 10 in the league. He’s also the embodiment of the phrase “The best defense is a good offense”: he is +24, mainly because his team seems to always be threatening to score when he’s on the ice. Overall, his numbers are exceptional. The only knock against him as a defenseman is that he doesn’t kill penalties.

The others on this list are not very surprising, especially Lidstrom, who has been among the top 3 defensemen in the NHL for almost 20 years. Mark Streit has been the only bright spot on a very weak Islanders team, and Brian Rafalski continues to be one of the most underrated defensemen in the league. Dan Boyle and Rob Blake have been excellent on the Sharks blue line, and Dennis Wideman has been a discovery in Boston, outshining his teammate Chara. I’m convinced that people think more highly of Chara because of his size: while he’s been a very good defenseman for some time now, his name comes up in Norris trophy discussions more often than his numbers warrant.

Best goaltenders

        Name	         Team(s)     	P    	Val OG  Val D   Val S	Total

1	Tim Thomas	 Bruins	        G	26.4   -0.3	0.5	26.5
2	Niklas Backstrom Wild	        G	21.1	0.6	3.4	25.1
3	Tomas Vokoun	 Panthers	G	22.9   -1.1	1.7	23.5
4	Pekka Rinne*	 Predators	G	16.2	0.1	2.4	18.7
5	Ryan Miller	 Sabres	        G	15.7   -0.6	2.5	17.7
6	Henrik Lundqvist Rangers	G	10.6   -0.1	4.5	15.1
7	Steve Mason*	 Blue Jackets	G	13.7	1.2	0.1	15.0
8	Jonas Hiller	 Mighty Ducks	G	10.8   -0.1	3.4	14.1
9	Scott Clemmensen Devils	        G	10.8	0.4	1.1	12.2
10	Chris Mason	 Blues	        G	13.4	0.1    -1.3	12.2

In a great year for backups, Jonas Hiller and Scott Clemmensen have risen to the occasion, Hiller outshining Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Clemmensen replacing the injured Brodeur. Pekka Rinne and Steve Mason have been arguably the best two rookies in the league, both leading otherwise weak teams to the cusp of the playoffs. Tomas Vokoun continues to be brilliant in relative obscurity; it’s amazing that Vokoun, one of the top 5 goaltenders in the NHL, doesn’t get more accolades. Missing from this list, for injury reasons, are the two best goaltenders of the last 10 years, Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur, although both might make the list by the end of the year if they continue their recent strong play.

Most improved players

        Name	           Team(s)	P	Total	Impr

1	Ryan Miller	   Sabres	G	17.7	18.4
2	Chris Mason	   Blues	G	12.2	18.0
3	Alexander Semin	   Capitals	F	18.0	15.2
4	Dwayne Roloson	   Oilers	G	11.8	14.3
5	Niklas Backstrom   Wild	        G	25.1	13.5
6	Patrick Marleau	   Sharks	F	16.4	12.9
7	Travis Zajac	   Devils	F	12.1	12.5
8	David Krejci	   Bruins	F	15.0	12.1
9	Tim Thomas	   Bruins	G	26.5	11.8
10	Mike Green	   Capitals	D	20.7	11.5
11	Rob Blake	   Sharks	D	12.9	10.6
12	Tomas Vokoun	   Panthers	G	23.5	10.0
13	Zach Parise	   Devils	F	19.8	10.0
14	Andrew Raycroft	   Avalanche	G      -3.3	9.8
15	Nikolai Khabibulin Blackhawks	G	11.5	9.4

The most improved player list is always interesting, because it often explains changes in team performance that are difficult to understand otherwise. Both Ryan Miller and Chris Mason had poor 2007-08 campaigns which they are making up for this year. Nobody is surprised to see Alexander Semin in 3rd place on this list; he might be challenging for the scoring title had he been healthy all year. Incredibly, Andrew Raycroft is on this list, despite the fact that he is having yet another lackluster year; while he had one brilliant season in 2003-04, he hasn’t played at an NHL level since then, and I don’t understand why teams still entrust their goaltending duties to him. Zajac and Krejci are two young players having their breakout years. Perhaps the most impressive presence on this list is that of Rob Blake. I personally thought the Sharks were silly to sign him, given his play the last two years, but instead they turned out to be geniuses.

Best rookies

        Name	         Team(s)	P       Val OG Val D   Val S	Total

1	Pekka Rinne*	 Predators	G	16.2	0.1	2.4	18.7
2	Steve Mason*	 Blue Jackets	G	13.7	1.2	0.1	15.0
3	Blake Wheeler*	 Bruins	        F	5.7	4.3	1.6	11.6
4	Kyle Quincey*	 Kings	        D	4.1	5.9	0.0	9.9
5	Patrik Berglund* Blues	        F	5.6	4.1    -0.3	9.4
6	Bobby Ryan*	 Ducks	        F	6.8	2.2    -0.7	8.3
7	Kris Versteeg*	 Blackhawks	F	6.3	2.2    -0.3	8.2
8	T.J. Oshie*	 Blues	        F	3.6	2.8	0.3	6.7
9	Derick Brassard* Blue Jackets	F	3.5	2.6	0.3	6.5
10	Jonathan Quick*	 Kings	        G	5.4	0.3	0.7	6.4

Rookie goaltenders tend to have an unfair advantage, as it’s much easier for a rookie to put up league-leading numbers than it is for a forward, and it’s even harder for a defenseman, so 1-2 punch of Pekka Rinne and Steve Mason is not surprising here, although both are clearly deserving. Both have also assumed the #1 load in their rise, so it’s not as if they’re shining in a reduced role. A third goaltender, Jonas Hiller, is also playing very well but is not eligible as a rookie because of his age, even though he only had 23 games of NHL experience prior to this year.

Kyle Quincey is also ineligible for the Calder because he has played 6 games in prior seasons, but that’s really a silly technicality and I’m including him here anyways in protest at the NHL’s stupid rules (specifically, he had a total experience of 13 regular-season and 13 playoff games prior to this season, all of them as a fifth-sixth defenseman). I know we’ve been saying this for some time, but the Kings really will be good in a couple of years. Their emergence will probably be like that of the Blackhawks, who have emerged all of a sudden as a league power this year, and are likely to remain that way for years to come.

All this without saying a word about Blake Wheeler, who’s likely to actually win the Calder trophy.

Best Shootout players

        Name	         Team(s)	P      Goals	Shots  Val S

1	Henrik Lundqvist Rangers	G	8	37	4.5
2	Wojtek Wolski	 Avalanche	F	7	8	4.3
3	Jonas Hiller	 Ducks	        G	3	19	3.4
4	Niklas Backstrom Wild	        G	2	16	3.4
5	Slava Kozlov	 Thrashers	F	5	5	3.3
6	Ryan Miller	 Sabres	        G	9	34	2.5
7	Pekka Rinne*	 Predators	G	1	10	2.4
8	Ales Kotalik	 Sabres	        F	6	11	2.3
9	Roberto Luongo	 Canucks	G	7	27	2.2
10	Cam Ward	 Hurricanes	G	2	12	2.1

I find it interesting that nobody seems to incorporate shootout performance when they judge a player’s total contribution in the NHL, to the point that comprehensive shootout statistics are hard to come by. It’s even more interesting that the types of skills involved don’t seem highly correlated: many of the biggest offensive names (Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby) are poor shootout performers. All this to say that Lundqvist is the NHL’s all-time best shootout performer and he continues to hold that title this year. There are a lot of things wrong with the Rangers this year, but Lundqvist is not one of them.

That’s it for the awards so far. We’ll do another pass at the end of the year to allocate the final awards. Until then, best of luck to your team, and I’ll be back next week to give an update on the power rankings going into the stretch run.

Tom Awad is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.