Home Unfiltered Articles Stats Glossary
Baseball       
Hockey Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

2013 NHL Entry Draft - Top draft prospects list and analysis

<< Previous Article
Player Power Rankings (12/08)
<< Previous Column
Illegal Curve (12/02)
Next Column >>
Illegal Curve (12/24)
Next Article >>
Behind The Net (12/09)

December 9, 2009
Illegal Curve
Blocked Shots and Standings Points

by Richard Pollock

Printer-
friendly

Continuing the theme from previous weeks, let’s take a look at the correlation between blocked shots and points in the standings since the lockout.


2005-06 Blocked 2006-07 Blocked 2007-08 Blocked 2008-09 Blocked
Teams	Shots   Teams   Shots   Teams   Shots   Teams   Shots
CAR	1259	NYR	1386	MTL	1343	NYI	1391
COL	1254	NYI	1307	PHI	1173	COL	1317
STL	1226	ATL	1293	EDM	1143	MTL	1316
NYR	1220	EDM	1283	NYI	1134	PIT	1280
PIT	1219	PHI	1262	PIT	1129	TOR	1252
BUF	1211	MTL	1253	COL	1081	PHI	1243
EDM	1167	COL	1251	ATL	1076	PHX	1209
NYI	1161	BUF	1248	TBL	1072	CAR	1194
TOR	1160	OTT	1242	TOR	1065	OTT	1147
MTL	1135	PIT	1238	CAR	1056	STL	1128
ATL	1123	STL	1211	LAK	1046	ATL	1122
OTT	1101	LAK	1143	STL	1040	WSH	1111
WSH	1101	NJD	1127	BUF	1035	FLA	1105
NSH	1091	WSH	1119	PHX	1018	TBL	1104
PHI	1078	CAR	1078	NYR	1013	BUF	1083
TBL	1075	PHX	1062	OTT	1011	EDM	1074
BOS	1065	SJS	1054	WSH	1005	BOS	1072
PHX	1043	DAL	1039	SJS	992	LAK	1040
DAL	1040	BOS	1035	VAN	988	NSH	1035
CBJ	1024	TOR	1035	FLA	980	MIN	1033
MIN	1020	CGY	1029	MIN	916	CBJ	1022
LAK	1016	FLA	1021	CHI	891	VAN	993
NJD	989	CHI	1015	CBJ	886	DAL	982
VAN	965	NSH	1010	BOS	878	NJD	970
CGY	964	MIN	1006	NSH	873	SJS	968
DET	942	TBL	1006	NJD	830	NYR	957
SJS	898	CBJ	995	DAL	793	CHI	846
CHI	893	VAN	870	CGY	764	ANA	801
FLA	857	DET	836	ANA	720	CGY	788
ANA	662	ANA	728	DET	709	DET	741

Above you can see the season-by-season blocked shots leaders since the lockout. As usual, let’s total the numbers above and provide an easier to read format.


2005-09
Teams	Blocked Shots   Ranking
MTL	5047	        1
NYI	4993	        2
COL	4903	        3
PIT	4866	        4
PHI	4756	        5
EDM	4667	        6
ATL	4614	        7
STL	4605	        8
CAR	4587	        9
BUF	4577	        10
NYR	4576	        11
TOR	4512	        12
OTT	4501	        13
WSH	4336	        14
PHX	4332	        15
TBL	4257	        16
LAK	4245	        17
BOS	4050	        18
NSH	4009	        19
MIN	3975	        20
FLA	3963	        21
CBJ	3927	        22
NJD	3916	        23
SJS	3912	        24
DAL	3854	        25
VAN	3816	        26
CHI	3645	        27
CGY	3545	        28
DET	3228	        29
ANA	2911	        30

Next, let’s look at the total points standings for each team from the lockout (2005) through to last season (2009).


 	            Total Points 
                    in Standings 
Teams               since Lockout   Ranking
Detroit     	    464	            1
San Jose	    431	            2
New Jersey	    413	            3
Buffalo	            404	            4
Anaheim	            401	            5
Dallas	            399	            6
Nashville	    395	            7
Ottawa	            395	            8
Calgary	            391	            9
Carolina	    389	            10
New York Rangers    386	            11
Vancouver	    385	            12
Montreal	    380	            13
Minnesota	    375	            14
Pittsburgh	    364	            15
Boston	            360	            16
Colorado	    354	            17
Philadelphia	    351	            18
Florida	            349	            19
Toronto 	    345	            20
Washington	    342	            21
Atlanta	            339	            22
Edmonton	    339	            23
Chicago	            328	            24
Tampa Bay Lightning 322	            25
Columbus	    319	            26
New York Islanders  310	            27
Phoenix	            310	            28
St. Louis	    309	            29
Los Angeles 	    307	            30

As you may be able to tell, there does not seem to be much of a correlation between blocked shots and points in the standings. If anything, it appears that since the lockout bad teams seem to be “better” at blocking shots than the top teams. Better is in quotations because the teams with the most blocked shots are certainly not “better” than the teams with less blocked shots.

Computation of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient actually leaves us with a negative correlation of -0.43, meaning that there is actually an inverse effect in blocked shots stats. More plainly, teams that block more shots actually place lower in the standings than teams that block fewer shots.

So, why is that?

Well, first off, the NHL has ceased in its keeping of time of possession statistics for reasons unbeknownst to me. That being said, I would hazard to guess that the above teams who lead the league in blocked shots since the lockout generally have the puck less than their opposition. Teams in the top six in terms of blocked shots, like the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers (as an aside, Isles/Oilers fans must have been longing for the 80s over the past four seasons), were quite awful in terms of points in the standings. Remember, even when the Oilers made the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006, the team was seeded eighth in the entire Western Conference.

Of the top ten teams in terms of shots blocked since the lockout, four of these teams were in the bottom third in the NHL over the same period in shots for. Now, shots for is not exactly a foolproof method of calculating puck possession, but it may be our most useful gauge.

This cannot mean that blocking shots is a bad thing right?

Of course not; rather, it means that blocked shots are a statistical tool that needs to be used in its proper context. For example, the Detroit Red Wings (who we can safely assume possessed the puck as much, if not more, than any other team from 2005-09) are the second “worst” team in the NHL in blocked shots since the lockout. Maybe the Wings are not a great shot blocking team; perhaps the importance of blocking shots is sometimes overstated and easier to quantify than being positionally sound and not providing teams with a shot opportunity in the first place. Or maybe, the Wings are a good shot blocking team but the totals are so low because they always had the puck over the past four seasons.

Either way, it is hard to argue that blocking shots is a bad thing. I suppose the relationship between shot blocking and points in the standings may be best explained by the old adage, “quality over quantity.”

Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Player Power Rankings (12/08)
<< Previous Column
Illegal Curve (12/02)
Next Column >>
Illegal Curve (12/24)
Next Article >>
Behind The Net (12/09)

RECENTLY AT HOCKEY PROSPECTUS
Top 100 Draft Prospects 2013: 31-40
Top 100 Draft Prospects 2013: 21-30
Top 100 Draft Prospects 2013: 16-20
NHL Playoffs, Second Round: Boston Bruins vs...
Premium Article Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads

MORE FROM DECEMBER 9, 2009
Behind The Net: Shootouts – Where in the Wor...

MORE BY RICHARD POLLOCK
2009-12-31 - Illegal Curve: Philly's Eternal Crease Quest...
2009-12-30 - Illegal Curve: Success and Even Strength Pro...
2009-12-24 - Illegal Curve: Shots Against and Shots Block...
2009-12-09 - Illegal Curve: Blocked Shots and Standings P...
2009-12-02 - Illegal Curve: Shots Against and Team Succes...
2009-11-27 - Illegal Curve: Shots on Goal and Points in t...
2009-11-19 - Team Quarterly Reports: Southeast Division
More...

MORE ILLEGAL CURVE
2009-12-31 - Illegal Curve: Philly's Eternal Crease Quest...
2009-12-30 - Illegal Curve: Success and Even Strength Pro...
2009-12-24 - Illegal Curve: Shots Against and Shots Block...
2009-12-09 - Illegal Curve: Blocked Shots and Standings P...
2009-12-02 - Illegal Curve: Shots Against and Team Succes...
2009-11-27 - Illegal Curve: Shots on Goal and Points in t...
2009-11-11 - Illegal Curve: Penalty Minutes and Team Succ...
More...