|
Continuing the theme from previous weeks, let’s take a look at the correlation between blocked shots and points in the standings since the lockout.
2005-06 Blocked 2006-07 Blocked 2007-08 Blocked 2008-09 Blocked
Teams Shots Teams Shots Teams Shots Teams Shots
CAR 1259 NYR 1386 MTL 1343 NYI 1391
COL 1254 NYI 1307 PHI 1173 COL 1317
STL 1226 ATL 1293 EDM 1143 MTL 1316
NYR 1220 EDM 1283 NYI 1134 PIT 1280
PIT 1219 PHI 1262 PIT 1129 TOR 1252
BUF 1211 MTL 1253 COL 1081 PHI 1243
EDM 1167 COL 1251 ATL 1076 PHX 1209
NYI 1161 BUF 1248 TBL 1072 CAR 1194
TOR 1160 OTT 1242 TOR 1065 OTT 1147
MTL 1135 PIT 1238 CAR 1056 STL 1128
ATL 1123 STL 1211 LAK 1046 ATL 1122
OTT 1101 LAK 1143 STL 1040 WSH 1111
WSH 1101 NJD 1127 BUF 1035 FLA 1105
NSH 1091 WSH 1119 PHX 1018 TBL 1104
PHI 1078 CAR 1078 NYR 1013 BUF 1083
TBL 1075 PHX 1062 OTT 1011 EDM 1074
BOS 1065 SJS 1054 WSH 1005 BOS 1072
PHX 1043 DAL 1039 SJS 992 LAK 1040
DAL 1040 BOS 1035 VAN 988 NSH 1035
CBJ 1024 TOR 1035 FLA 980 MIN 1033
MIN 1020 CGY 1029 MIN 916 CBJ 1022
LAK 1016 FLA 1021 CHI 891 VAN 993
NJD 989 CHI 1015 CBJ 886 DAL 982
VAN 965 NSH 1010 BOS 878 NJD 970
CGY 964 MIN 1006 NSH 873 SJS 968
DET 942 TBL 1006 NJD 830 NYR 957
SJS 898 CBJ 995 DAL 793 CHI 846
CHI 893 VAN 870 CGY 764 ANA 801
FLA 857 DET 836 ANA 720 CGY 788
ANA 662 ANA 728 DET 709 DET 741
Above you can see the season-by-season blocked shots leaders since the lockout. As usual, let’s total the numbers above and provide an easier to read format.
2005-09
Teams Blocked Shots Ranking
MTL 5047 1
NYI 4993 2
COL 4903 3
PIT 4866 4
PHI 4756 5
EDM 4667 6
ATL 4614 7
STL 4605 8
CAR 4587 9
BUF 4577 10
NYR 4576 11
TOR 4512 12
OTT 4501 13
WSH 4336 14
PHX 4332 15
TBL 4257 16
LAK 4245 17
BOS 4050 18
NSH 4009 19
MIN 3975 20
FLA 3963 21
CBJ 3927 22
NJD 3916 23
SJS 3912 24
DAL 3854 25
VAN 3816 26
CHI 3645 27
CGY 3545 28
DET 3228 29
ANA 2911 30
Next, let’s look at the total points standings for each team from the lockout (2005) through to last season (2009).
Total Points
in Standings
Teams since Lockout Ranking
Detroit 464 1
San Jose 431 2
New Jersey 413 3
Buffalo 404 4
Anaheim 401 5
Dallas 399 6
Nashville 395 7
Ottawa 395 8
Calgary 391 9
Carolina 389 10
New York Rangers 386 11
Vancouver 385 12
Montreal 380 13
Minnesota 375 14
Pittsburgh 364 15
Boston 360 16
Colorado 354 17
Philadelphia 351 18
Florida 349 19
Toronto 345 20
Washington 342 21
Atlanta 339 22
Edmonton 339 23
Chicago 328 24
Tampa Bay Lightning 322 25
Columbus 319 26
New York Islanders 310 27
Phoenix 310 28
St. Louis 309 29
Los Angeles 307 30
As you may be able to tell, there does not seem to be much of a correlation between blocked shots and points in the standings. If anything, it appears that since the lockout bad teams seem to be “better” at blocking shots than the top teams. Better is in quotations because the teams with the most blocked shots are certainly not “better” than the teams with less blocked shots.
Computation of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient actually leaves us with a negative correlation of -0.43, meaning that there is actually an inverse effect in blocked shots stats. More plainly, teams that block more shots actually place lower in the standings than teams that block fewer shots.
So, why is that?
Well, first off, the NHL has ceased in its keeping of time of possession statistics for reasons unbeknownst to me. That being said, I would hazard to guess that the above teams who lead the league in blocked shots since the lockout generally have the puck less than their opposition. Teams in the top six in terms of blocked shots, like the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers (as an aside, Isles/Oilers fans must have been longing for the 80s over the past four seasons), were quite awful in terms of points in the standings. Remember, even when the Oilers made the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006, the team was seeded eighth in the entire Western Conference.
Of the top ten teams in terms of shots blocked since the lockout, four of these teams were in the bottom third in the NHL over the same period in shots for. Now, shots for is not exactly a foolproof method of calculating puck possession, but it may be our most useful gauge.
This cannot mean that blocking shots is a bad thing right?
Of course not; rather, it means that blocked shots are a statistical tool that needs to be used in its proper context. For example, the Detroit Red Wings (who we can safely assume possessed the puck as much, if not more, than any other team from 2005-09) are the second “worst” team in the NHL in blocked shots since the lockout. Maybe the Wings are not a great shot blocking team; perhaps the importance of blocking shots is sometimes overstated and easier to quantify than being positionally sound and not providing teams with a shot opportunity in the first place. Or maybe, the Wings are a good shot blocking team but the totals are so low because they always had the puck over the past four seasons.
Either way, it is hard to argue that blocking shots is a bad thing. I suppose the relationship between shot blocking and points in the standings may be best explained by the old adage, “quality over quantity.”
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve. |