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Last week, we looked at the effect of number of games, strength of opponents, home ice advantage and back-to-back games on fantasy hockey leagues with weekly scoring. This week, we’ll take a look at a larger group of centers to see who is expected to have the most predicted points (pP) for the upcoming fantasy week.
Legend:
OGA: Opponents' Goals Against - Average GA per game of this week's opponents
mOGA: OGA modified by home ice advantage and back-to-back game effects
GMS: Games in the upcoming fantasy week, Sunday - Saturday
pG: Predicted goals for the upcoming week
pA: Predicted assists for the upcoming week
pP: Predicted points for the upcoming week
Expected production of select centers, Fantasy Week 12
Name Team Pos Week's Opponents OGA mOGA GMS pG pA pP
Sidney Crosby PIT C NJD, OTT, TOR -- 2.87 3.10 3 2.25 2.53 4.78
Henrik Sedin VAN C NSH, EDM, @CGY* -- 2.84 2.89 3 1.40 3.20 4.60
Joe Thornton SJS C @DAL, @CHI*, ANA -- 2.80 2.76 3 0.56 3.55 4.10
Tomas Plekanec MTL C @ATL, @CAR, @TOR -- 3.41 3.38 3 0.55 3.35 3.89
Evgeni Malkin PIT C NJD, OTT, TOR -- 2.87 3.10 3 1.13 2.71 3.83
Brad Richards DAL C SJS, CBJ, @COL -- 3.02 3.15 3 0.89 2.76 3.65
Derek Roy BUF C @TOR, @WSH, OTT, @STL* 3.01 2.97 4 1.28 2.08 3.36
Stephen Weiss FLA C @PHI, @NYR, BOS -- 2.79 2.83 3 1.49 1.82 3.31
Matt Stajan TOR C BUF, @NYI, MTL, @PIT* 2.68 2.71 4 1.17 2.11 3.28
Mikko Koivu MIN C COL, EDM, STL -- 2.99 3.21 3 0.91 2.25 3.16
Paul Stastny COL C @MIN, ANA*, DAL -- 3.03 3.08 3 0.62 2.51 3.13
Jonathan Toews CHI C SJS, @DET*, @NSH, NSH* 2.73 2.69 4 1.45 1.67 3.12
V. Lecavalier TBL C @NYI, @PHI, ATL -- 3.06 3.11 3 1.01 2.00 3.00
John Tavares NYI C TBL, TOR, @NYR, PHI* 3.10 3.19 4 2.06 0.74 2.80
Mike Ribeiro DAL C SJS, CBJ, @COL -- 3.02 3.15 3 0.76 2.02 2.79
Steven Stamkos TBL C @NYI, @PHI, ATL -- 3.06 3.11 3 1.51 1.09 2.60
Ryan Getzlaf ANA C @COL, @PHX*, @SJS -- 2.62 2.49 3 0.70 1.89 2.59
Ryan Kesler VAN C NSH, EDM, @CGY* -- 2.84 2.89 3 0.58 1.85 2.44
Patrick Marleau SJS C @DAL, @CHI*, ANA -- 2.80 2.76 3 1.56 0.81 2.37
S. Reinprecht FLA C @PHI, @NYR, BOS -- 2.79 2.83 3 0.69 1.65 2.34
Mike Fisher OTT C BOS, @PIT, @BUF -- 2.42 2.47 3 1.30 1.01 2.30
Rich Peverley ATL C MTL, @BOS, @TBL -- 2.81 2.86 3 0.92 1.33 2.26
David Legwand NSH C @VAN, CHI, @CHI* -- 2.29 2.25 3 0.64 1.44 2.08
Vaclav Prospal NYR C @CAR, FLA, NYI -- 3.38 3.52 3 0.43 1.64 2.07
Tim Connolly BUF C @TOR, @WSH, OTT, @STL* 3.01 2.97 4 0.64 1.39 2.03
Travis Zajac NJD C @PIT, @WSH -- -- 2.65 2.61 2 0.49 1.52 2.02
Jason Arnott NSH C @VAN, CHI, @CHI* -- 2.29 2.25 3 0.82 1.18 2.00
Jeff Carter PHI C FLA, @TBL, @CAR, @NYI* 3.30 3.26 4 1.40 0.51 1.91
Nik Antropov ATL C MTL, @BOS, @TBL -- 2.81 2.86 3 0.69 1.00 1.69
N. Backstrom WSH C BUF, NJD -- -- 2.19 2.42 2 0.59 0.94 1.52
Pavel Datsyuk DET C CHI, CBJ -- -- 2.83 3.05 2 0.57 0.95 1.52
T. Fleischmann WSH C BUF, NJD -- -- 2.19 2.42 2 0.95 0.56 1.51
Anze Kopitar LAK C @PHX -- -- -- 2.31 2.27 1 0.24 0.26 0.51
*Second game of back-to-back games
Even with Christmas falling on Friday, most teams have a standard three game week; the NHL schedule-makers even managed to fit in four games for a handful of teams despite the holiday. Yet interestingly, the top fantasy choices for Week 12 are not centers with four games, as the few name centers with the extra game––such as Chicago’s Jonathan Toews and Philadelphia’s Jeff Carter––have a mediocre to awful track record of recent. Carter (1.91 predicted points), an 84 point scorer in 2008-09 (1.02 points per game), is playing so poorly that you can expect to get more production from two games of Travis Zajac (2.02 pP) or three games of Vaclav Prospal (2.07 pP) – and this is with the third easiest opposition of the listed centers! Playing against the Panthers (3.27 GA per game, 27th in NHL), Lightning (3.06 GA per game, 21st in NHL), Hurricanes (3.66 GA per game, 30th in NHL) and Islanders (3.22 GA per game, 25th in NHL) should be an absolute goldmine for a top player. Yet with production levels resembling his age 21-23 years, the 25 year old Carter may just not be as good as he seemed last season.
Could Carter have enough value to push him into your lineup in a league that rewards goals at 3 x assists? I face that dilemma myself in one fantasy league. My choice is between Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Toews, Stephen Weiss and Jeff Carter – for three active slots. With Carter expected to score a respectable 1.40 goals this week compared to Malkin’s 1.13, it was worth doing a quick calculation to see whether Carter would actually be more valuable in this league. The answer is no. Malkin still comes out on top, due to the extreme discrepancy in expected assists (2.71 pA to 0.51 pA). Based on recent track record, it looks like a coin flip whether Carter tallies an assist this week or not.
At the other end of the spectrum are players with one and two games, who predictably are at the bottom of the list (as Joe Thornton was last week, with only one game on the docket). While it’s true that Travis Zajac, Nicklas Backstrom, Tomas Fleischmann and Anze Kopitar are knocked down a peg due to playing against tougher then average competition, that’s not the case for Pavel Datsyuk, whose modified Opponents’ Goals Against (mOGA) is more favorable than the current NHL average of 2.86 GA per game. The lesson? You need to have a star player at the top of his game––think Sidney Crosby right now––to even consider choosing a player with less than three games in the current week.
Oh, how far have they fallen. Sure, Anze Kopitar has only one game this week and it’s against the Coyotes, the NHL’s fourth stingiest defense (2.31 GA per game), but even multiplying the once mighty winger’s expected production by four games would barely get him a third of the way up the list. The talented, young Slovenian started the season on fire––leading the NHL in goals––but has cooled off tremendously. Trade him or trade for him if you can get the right value, remembering he’s not as good as he started the season and not as bad as he looks now. Kopitar’s chemistry with the injured Ryan Smyth was integral to his production – expect a bounceback once the dynamic duo can skate together again.
So where are you best options this week? Sidney Crosby (4.78 pP)––who you’d start pretty much under any circumstances anyway––is producing like no other skater this season. He’s bound to top this list for weeks to come. Henrik Sedin’s (4.60 pP) career season puts him surprisingly near Crosby’s expected production; Tomas Plekanec (3.89 pP) is unusual to see near the top as well. Among second to third tier centers that are excellent choices for Week 12 are Derek Roy (3.36 pP), Stephen Weiss (3.31 pP), Matt Stajan (3.28 pP), Paul Stastny (3.13 pP) and Vincent Lecavalier (3.00 pP). Leagues heavily weighting goals versus assists should look to Sidney Crosby (2.25 pG), John Tavares (2.06 pG), Patrick Marleau (1.56 pG), Steven Stamkos (1.51 pG) and Stephen Weiss (1.49 pG) as top options.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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