December 24, 2009
Illegal Curve
Shots Against and Shots Blocked

by Richard Pollock

Two weeks back, I took a look at the need to look at team shot blocking totals in proper context. In that article we discovered that there was an inverse correlation between blocked shots and points in the standings—meaning that teams that posted high blocked shots totals generally were lower down in the standings.

This week, we will look at shots blocked in relation to total shots against. More specifically, we will evaluate whether there is a correlation between total shots against and shots blocked?

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Here are the shots against totals from the lockout up until last season:

Legend:

SA: Shots Against

2005/06         2006/07         2007/08         2008/09
Teams   SA      Teams   SA      Teams   SA      Teams   SA
ANA	2431	ANA	2248	ANA	2300	ANA	2499
ATL	2483	ATL	2582	ATL	2782	ATL	2683
BOS	2633	BOS	2748	BOS	2498	BOS	2525
BUF	2502	BUF	2542	BUF	2326	BUF	2575
CAR	2497	CAR	2336	CAR	2368	CAR	2419
CBJ	2762	CBJ	2345	CBJ	2249	CBJ	2281
CGY	2261	CGY	2502	CGY	2335	CGY	2441
CHI	2417	CHI	2408	CHI	2346	CHI	2344
COL	2415	COL	2378	COL	2237	COL	2376
DAL	2099	DAL	2083	DAL	2137	DAL	2304
DET	2180	DET	2020	DET	1930	DET	2274
EDM	2095	EDM	2439	EDM	2573	EDM	2668
FLA	2853	FLA	2402	FLA	2753	FLA	2843
LAK	2459	LAK	2440	LAK	2625	LAK	2301
MIN	2460	MIN	2361	MIN	2469	MIN	2518
MTL	2507	MTL	2685	MTL	2589	MTL	2600
NJD	2403	NJD	2332	NJD	2257	NJD	2415
NSH	2662	NSH	2561	NSH	2440	NSH	2411
NYI	2549	NYI	2672	NYI	2488	NYI	2751
NYR	2358	NYR	2329	NYR	2124	NYR	2433
OTT	2344	OTT	2479	OTT	2456	OTT	2337
PHI	2372	PHI	2673	PHI	2609	PHI	2668
PHX	2480	PHX	2470	PHX	2518	PHX	2591
PIT	2723	PIT	2530	PIT	2523	PIT	2484
SJS	2180	SJS	2149	SJS	1981	SJS	2228
STL	2510	STL	2369	STL	2249	STL	2341
TBL	2260	TBL	2234	TBL	2312	TBL	2701
TOR	2509	TOR	2330	TOR	2403	TOR	2481
VAN	2466	VAN	2398	VAN	2367	VAN	2392
WSH	2880	WSH	2734	WSH	2259	WSH	2418

Those are the totals in alphabetical order since the lockout. Here are the total from lowest shots against to highest shots against.

Team	Total Shots Against
DET	8404
SJS	8538
DAL	8623
NYR	9244
COL	9406
NJD	9407
STL	9469
ANA	9478
TBL	9507
CHI	9515
CGY	9539
OTT	9616
CAR	9620
VAN	9623
CBJ	9637
TOR	9723
EDM	9775
MIN	9808
LAK	9825
BUF	9945
PHX	10059
NSH	10074
PIT	10260
WSH	10291
PHI	10322
MTL	10381
BOS	10404
NYI	10460
ATL	10530
FLA	10851

These numbers should not be surprising to regular readers, as we have reviewed a number on shots for/shots against statistics when it comes to posting points in the standings.

Now, let’s venture back into the article from two weeks ago and post the shot blocking totals since the lockout.

Teams	Blocked Shots
MTL	5047
NYI	4993
COL	4903
PIT	4866
PHI	4756
EDM	4667
ATL	4614
STL	4605
CAR	4587
BUF	4577
NYR	4576
TOR	4512
OTT	4501
WSH	4336
PHX	4332
TBL	4257
LAK	4245
BOS	4050
NSH	4009
MIN	3975
FLA	3963
CBJ	3927
NJD	3916
SJS	3912
DAL	3854
VAN	3816
CHI	3645
CGY	3545
DET	3228
ANA	2911

Taken together, what do the above statistics mean? Well, the correlation between shots blocked since the lockout and shots against since the lockout is .464. That is a notable correlation. So, the teams that have blocked more shots during the lockout have a higher propensity of allowing more shots against.

These numbers, of course, are not surprising. If you are allowing a lot of shots against, then you probably do not have the puck as often as you would like. Thus, if you do not have the puck as often as you would like, you are probably on the defensive—and therefore blocking more shots.

If you look closely, only two teams find themselves in the top ten in both shots against and blocked shots for since the lockout. Those two teams are the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues. Generally you would take from these statistics that both of these teams are very solid defensively—both in preventing and blocking shots. The Colorado Avalanche allowed the fifth lowest shots against since the lockout but also blocked the third most total shots since the lockout. The Blues allowed the seventh lowest shots against since the lockout but also blocked the eighth most shots.

Funny enough, the Blues and Avalanche are both in the bottom half of the NHL in terms of points in the standings since the lockout. So why are these teams outliers? As touched on three weeks ago, goaltending can giveth and taketh away. The Blues only had one goaltender on their roster that posted an above .900 save percentage for the first three years after the lockout. Only last season was there really some progress when Chris Mason was brought aboard and you saw the team’s fortunes rise.

What about Colorado? Well the Avalanche did not have a goalie on the roster with a save percentage over .900 in 2005/06. In 2006/07, the Avalanche only had one netminder on the roster with a plus .900 save percentage but it was only .905. In 2007/08, Jose Theodore had a good season, posting a .910 save percentage—and not surprisingly the team advanced in the playoffs to the Conference semi-finals. Last season the Avalanche had no one on the roster with a plus .900 save percentage.

So, we see that if you can excel at both shots against and shots blocked you should be in good shape—if you have solid goaltending.

The Avalanche and Blues are two of the most efficient teams when it comes to blocking shots versus shots allowed.

What about the rest?

Here are the ten most efficient teams when it comes to blocked shots in relation to shots allowed:

Teams	Blocked Shots   Shots Against   Blocked Shots/Shots Against Percentage
COL	4903	        9406	        0.521263
NYR	4576	        9244	        0.495024
STL	4605	        9469	        0.486324
MTL	5047	        10381	        0.486177
EDM	4667	        9775	        0.477442
NYI	4993	        10460	        0.477342
CAR	4587	        9620	        0.476819
PIT	4866	        10260	        0.474269
OTT	4501	        9616	        0.468074
TOR	4512	        9723	        0.464054

Above you see the top ten teams when it comes to shot blocking totals as a percentage of total shots against. There are many ways to look at these stats, however, the above ten teams are probably some of the top shot blocking teams since the lockout.

As stated many times before, these numbers are certainly not foolproof. Even a team has a high percentage of blocked shots and low shots against may be poor defensively. Look at the Islanders; no one would confuse the Islanders with a Jacques Lemaire coached hockey team. Further, a team like Detroit is fifth worst in terms of percentage (0.38) but are arguably one of the top defensive teams in the NHL. Clearly, factors like time of possession, strong positional play and playing with the lead play into these statistics.

In a vacuum, the ten teams listed show an ability to sacrifice their bodies and block a lot of shots. Overall, however, this ratio clearly does not guarantee much success.

Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.