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Our last two Shots On Goal columns covered which centermen to use in weekly fantasy leagues, based on number of games, strength of opposition, number of home and road games and number of back-to-back games – with an eye towards maximizing the number of points produced. This week, we’re going to do the same methodology with their wingmen, looking at a sample of the most common players used in fantasy hockey.
To begin with, let’s take a peek at which opponents have been the toughest and easiest to score against this season, based on Goals Against per Game Played (GA/GP):
Goals Against per Game, Teams
Rank Team GA/Game
1 Chicago Blackhawks 2.15
2 New Jersey Devils 2.23
3 Phoenix Coyotes 2.30
4 Buffalo Sabres 2.33
5 Boston Bruins 2.38
6 Calgary Flames 2.39
7 Vancouver Canucks 2.45
8 San Jose Sharks 2.52
9 Detroit Red Wings 2.54
10 Pittsburgh Penguins 2.62
11 Montreal Canadiens 2.77
12 Philadelphia Flyers 2.78
13 New York Rangers 2.80
14 Washington Capitals 2.83
15 Nashville Predators 2.83
16 Los Angeles Kings 2.86
17 Colorado Avalanche 2.88
18 Ottawa Senators 2.95
19 Tampa Bay Lightning 2.95
20 St. Louis Blues 2.95
21 Minnesota Wild 2.95
22 Dallas Stars 3.10
23 New York Islanders 3.12
24 Anaheim Ducks 3.22
25 Florida Panthers 3.24
26 Edmonton Oilers 3.29
27 Atlanta Thrashers 3.29
28 Columbus Blue Jackets 3.33
29 Toronto Maple Leafs 3.45
30 Carolina Hurricanes 3.56
Average 2.84
Chicago, New Jersey, Phoenix and Buffalo continue to be the hardest teams to score against, though the Sabres have fallen from their first place status over the past few weeks. Carolina, Toronto and Columbus are the easiest teams to score against; Anaheim has improved their defense of late.
Remembering that number of games played is most crucial in fantasy leagues with weekly scoring, the strength of opposition found above is the next most important factor in the following projections:
Legend:
OGA - Opponents' Goals Against - Average GA per game of this week's opponents
mOGA - OGA modified by home ice advantage and back-to-back game effects
GM - Games in the upcoming fantasy week, Sunday - Saturday
G - Goals prediction for the upcoming week
A - Assists prediction for the upcoming week
P - Points prediction for the upcoming week
Expected production of select wings, Fantasy Week 14
Name Tm Pos Week's opponents OGA mOGA GM G A P
Patrick Kane CHI W MIN, @BOS, @MIN, ANA* 2.87 2.90 4 2.05 3.64 5.68
Alex Ovechkin WSH W MTL, OTT, @ATL 3.00 3.14 3 2.68 2.77 5.45
Marian Gaborik NYR W BOS, DAL, @ATL*, @BOS 2.79 2.81 4 2.44 2.42 4.86
Jarome Iginla CGY W @NSH, @CBJ*, MIN, @VAN* 2.89 2.79 4 1.96 2.84 4.80
Loui Eriksson DAL W @NJD, @NYR*, NYI, @CBJ 2.87 2.83 4 1.69 2.66 4.35
Dany Heatley SJS W LAK, STL, DET 2.78 3.01 3 1.71 2.30 4.01
Ilya Kovalchuk ATL W @PIT, NYR, WSH 2.75 2.89 3 1.76 2.04 3.80
Daniel Sedin VAN W CBJ, PHX, CGY 2.67 2.90 3 1.40 2.38 3.79
Nathan Horton FLA W @TOR, @MTL, @FLA 3.06 3.02 3 1.23 2.48 3.71
Bobby Ryan ANA W DET, STL, @NSH, @CHI* 2.62 2.64 4 1.86 1.66 3.52
Zach Parise NJD W DAL, TBL, @MTL* 2.94 2.99 3 1.34 1.76 3.09
Rene Bourque CGY W @NSH, @CBJ*, MIN, @VAN* 2.89 2.79 4 1.51 1.53 3.04
Alexander Semin WSH W MTL, OTT, @ATL 3.00 3.14 3 1.15 1.85 3.00
Wojtek Wolski COL W NYI, @CAR, @BUF* 3.00 2.96 3 0.84 2.09 2.93
Patrik Elias NJD W DAL, TBL, @MTL* 2.94 2.99 3 0.97 1.93 2.90
Maxim Afinogenov ATL W @PIT, NYR, WSH 2.75 2.89 3 1.17 1.70 2.87
M. Cammalleri MTL W @WSH, FLA, NJD 2.77 2.90 3 1.54 1.19 2.73
Bill Guerin PIT W ATL, PHI, @TOR 3.17 3.31 3 1.35 1.36 2.71
Scottie Upshall PHX W @EDM, @VAN, NYI 2.95 3.00 3 1.10 1.59 2.69
Alex Kovalev OTT W BOS, @WSH, FLA, @CAR* 3.00 3.03 4 0.49 2.14 2.63
Mason Raymond VAN W CBJ, PHX, CGY 2.67 2.90 3 1.41 1.19 2.61
Rick Nash CBJ W @VAN, @EDM, @CGY*, DAL 2.81 2.77 4 1.20 1.30 2.50
Corey Perry ANA W DET, STL, @NSH, @CHI* 2.62 2.64 4 0.72 1.66 2.37
Todd Bertuzzi DET W @ANA, @LAK, @SJS 2.87 2.83 3 1.15 1.16 2.31
Martin St. Louis TBL W @BUF, @NJD, @PHI* 2.44 2.31 3 0.47 1.77 2.24
J. Langenbrunner NJD W DAL, TBL, @MTL* 2.94 2.99 3 0.97 1.23 2.20
Patrick Sharp CHI W MIN, @BOS, @MIN, ANA* 2.87 2.90 4 1.26 0.91 2.17
Patric Hornqvist NSH W CGY, CAR, ANA 3.06 3.28 3 1.33 0.77 2.11
Thomas Vanek BUF W TBL, TOR, COL* 3.10 3.23 3 0.92 1.14 2.06
Ryan Malone TBL W @BUF, @NJD, @PHI* 2.44 2.31 3 0.94 1.09 2.03
Martin Havlat MIN W @CHI, CGY*, CHI 2.23 2.28 3 0.56 1.47 2.03
Radek Dvorak FLA W @TOR, @MTL, @FLA 3.06 3.02 3 0.49 1.24 1.73
Michael Ryder BOS W @NYR, @OTT*, CHI, NYR 2.68 2.70 4 1.03 0.64 1.66
Dustin Penner EDM W PHX, CBJ 2.81 3.04 2 0.82 0.83 1.66
Matt Moulson NYI W @COL, @DAL, @PHX* 2.76 2.63 3 0.96 0.62 1.58
Alexander Frolov LAK W @SJS, DET, STL 2.67 2.81 3 0.80 0.66 1.46
*Second game of back-to-back games
Best Choices
Not only is Patrick Kane a top talent, but he's on fire; aside from a one game week, there will be no reason to bench him this season. Alex Ovechkin is producing at an even greater per game clip; only his three games this week make him anything but the first choice. Marian Gaborik is also an elite producer, though the loss of center Vaclav Prospal is going to marginally affect him for the next week or two. Thirty-something Jarome Iginla, young Loui Eriksson and streaky Nathan Horton may surprise you as being high on this week’s list; it’s great recent production coupled with four games that should do the trick for them. Elite producers Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, Daniel Sedin, Zach Parise and Alexander Semin also rank highly, despite three games on this week’s schedule.
Second Tier
Bobby Ryan and Rene Bourque get a boost from a four game schedule. Wojtek Wolski and Patrik Elias are solid choices in leagues that reward goals and assists equally; knock them down a notch if goals are what you’re after. Michael Cammalleri, Bill Guerin and surprising Mason Raymond are conversely better choices in leagues where goals are more important. Maxim Afinogenov, Scottie Upshall and Todd Bertuzzi are currently playing well, but don’t put too much stock in them, long term. Coming off a four goal outburst on Saturday, with a hat trick also in recent memory, Alex Kovalev is worth rostering, but his overall track record this season still makes him a big risk. Rick Nash has been relatively cool recently regarding overall point production, though you’d have to think that he’s a good play in leagues that reward heavily for goals; it’s hard to believe that Nash is not a top option with four games this week.
Less Optimal
Corey Perry, Martin St. Louis and Martin Havlat have all had difficulty finding the net recently, though they’ve kept providing assists. St. Louis and teammate Ryan Malone are both hurt by a particularly difficult week – three away games against top competition (2.31 mOGA). Patrick Sharp is a far lesser fantasy option than teammate Kane, but with four games, he's a fallback option this week. While young Swede Patric Hornqvist has definitely made a case to be rostered, he does not have a long enough track record to make him a top consideration yet; keep in mind that scouts have him pegged as a second line forward – at best. The recent production of Jamie Langenbrunner and Matt Mouson don’t make them ideal options this week. Thomas Vanek seems to be a perennial disappointment, most useful in fantasy leagues that reward for power play goals.
Probably Not
Radek Dvorak is one of many Panthers on a hot streak; it's just that the streak hasn't lasted long enough for us to think he's somehow found the fountain of youth. Michael Ryder was a big fantasy contributor in 2008-09, but with the Bruins' plus/minus ratings back down to earth, he hasn't been worth rostering in many leagues. Dustin Penner has been a surprise contributor this season, but he's not a great choice this week with Edmonton being one of the few teams with less than three games. And Alexander Frolov is probably causing you to pull your hair out if you still have him on your team; now you know what it’s like to be his real life general manager.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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