|
Most, if not all, coaches want their teams to be physical. If teams do not engage in physical contact fans, coaches and media alike will deem the team to be too “soft” to compete when it matters most. This led me to wonder whether teams that recorded more hits correlated with recording points in the standings.
Before looking more closely at the correlation between hits and team success it is important to note the subjectivity that goes along with analyzing “hits” statistics. The fact is, hits are a very subjective statistic. Sure, but you could argue that shots on goal, face-offs and other stats are also subjective. While this is true to an extent, the subjectivity of hits seems to be above and beyond those other statistics.
Having said that, it still seems like an interesting study to broach, so let’s take a look at the hit statistics from the season after the lockout (2005-06) through to last season (2008-09).
Total Total Total Total
2005/06 Team Hits 2006/07 Team Hits 2007/08 Team Hits 2008/09 Team Hits
1 TOR 1805 1 CAR 1949 1 NYR 2137 1 NYR 2312
2 OTT 1765 2 TOR 1863 2 MTL 2007 2 LAK 2128
3 DAL 1722 3 OTT 1843 3 OTT 1802 3 DAL 2076
4 MTL 1649 4 NYI 1808 4 SJS 1789 4 SJS 2042
5 CGY 1648 5 NYR 1782 5 CAR 1741 5 MTL 1974
6 WSH 1542 6 FLA 1776 6 STL 1705 6 PIT 1939
7 NYI 1523 7 MTL 1771 7 LAK 1652 7 OTT 1923
8 PHX 1422 8 DAL 1670 8 CGY 1633 8 CBJ 1919
9 SJS 1411 9 WSH 1556 9 DAL 1619 9 TBL 1854
10 ATL 1405 10 ANA 1534 10 ANA 1619 10 NYI 1828
11 VAN 1358 11 LAK 1503 11 TBL 1616 11 BOS 1825
12 LAK 1358 12 ATL 1501 12 NYI 1613 12 PHX 1809
13 CHI 1351 13 CGY 1491 13 WSH 1599 13 TOR 1764
14 PIT 1321 14 SJS 1463 14 BOS 1593 14 ANA 1758
15 PHI 1294 15 PHX 1422 15 PHX 1572 15 CAR 1716
16 ANA 1246 16 CBJ 1407 16 CBJ 1563 16 PHI 1712
17 EDM 1203 17 PIT 1379 17 PIT 1557 17 NSH 1671
18 NYR 1197 18 BOS 1379 18 FLA 1551 18 WSH 1662
19 STL 1175 19 STL 1356 19 TOR 1547 19 STL 1611
20 BOS 1170 20 CHI 1354 20 BUF 1512 20 FLA 1562
21 NJD 1167 21 NJD 1348 21 CHI 1482 21 CGY 1552
22 NSH 1155 22 PHI 1317 22 NJD 1471 22 CHI 1520
23 DET 1149 23 EDM 1298 23 NSH 1454 23 DET 1480
24 CBJ 1147 24 TBL 1275 24 PHI 1415 24 MIN 1468
25 CAR 1145 25 DET 1272 25 DET 1413 25 COL 1462
26 FLA 1131 26 BUF 1272 26 ATL 1333 26 BUF 1458
27 BUF 1073 27 NSH 1241 27 MIN 1238 27 NJD 1448
28 TBL 975 28 VAN 1206 28 VAN 1232 28 EDM 1393
29 COL 951 29 MIN 1004 29 COL 1168 29 ATL 1380
30 MIN 846 30 COL 964 30 EDM 1130 30 VAN 1315
Above you see the season-by-season leaders in hits since the lockout. As usual, let’s provide the total numbers to make this easier to read:
Teams Total Hits
MTL 5429
OTT 5412
TOR 5217
NYR 5118
DAL 5013
NYI 4946
CAR 4837
CGY 4774
WSH 4699
SJS 4665
LAK 4515
FLA 4460
PHX 4418
ANA 4401
PIT 4259
ATL 4241
STL 4238
CHI 4189
BOS 4144
CBJ 4119
PHI 4028
NJD 3988
TBL 3868
BUF 3859
NSH 3852
DET 3836
VAN 3798
EDM 3633
MIN 3090
COL 3085
Now here are the total points in the standings from 2005/06 through 2008/09:
Teams Total Points in Standings since Lockout
Detroit 464
San Jose 431
New Jersey 413
Buffalo 404
Anaheim 401
Dallas 399
Nashville 395
Ottawa 395
Calgary 391
Carolina 389
New York Rangers 386
Vancouver 385
Montreal 380
Minnesota 375
Pittsburgh 364
Boston 360
Colorado 354
Philadelphia 351
Florida 349
Toronto 345
Washington 342
Atlanta 339
Edmonton 339
Chicago 328
Tampa Bay Lightning 322
Columbus 319
New York Islanders 310
Phoenix 310
St. Louis 309
Los Angeles 307
So what is the relationship between hits and points in the standings?
Well, there really is not much of a correlation at all. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient comes to 0.02 which is essentially nothing—a.k.a. no relation between team success and hits.
Why is that?
There may be a couple of reasons for this being the case. The first is that there is a healthy balance between teams being physical and teams registering more hits because they do not have the puck as much. Obviously teams want to play the body and not allow opposing teams as much time with the puck; conversely, teams that do not have the puck that much will have more time and ability to hit the opposing team.
Another factor could be that playing a physical game is a matter of coaching preferences and the style of play for particular players. Some teams can win by playing a physical game; others can win by playing a less physical game. However, a coach like Pat Quinn that prefers to play a physical style of play would probably tell you that the players’ style of play matter just as much, if not more, than the coaches when it comes to being physical. Quinn’s team sits 22nd in the NHL in hits this year and anyone who has seen his post-game press conferences can attest to his desire to have his team play a more in-your-face style of game.
When you hear analysts emphasize that a team needs to play a physical game, this may or not be beneficial to your team’s cause—depending on the team’s personnel, coaching and opponent. That said, it should be noted that all teams appear to play to a baseline of aggressiveness—as only four teams over the past four seasons have registered under 1000 hits in a season.
So, if you think your team needs to be more physical in order to win games, you should just realize that there are far bigger issues that your team should be worrying about first.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve. | 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads