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Hi everybody, and welcome to the second edition of the Bayesian Power Rankings of Numbers on Ice. This week, in addition to giving each team’s rank, offensive and defensive strength, and playoff odds, I will also point out each team’s strongest and weakest point. This will give you an idea of what teams have to work on, and what is already working, heading into the stretch run.
To do this, I’ve sliced up team performance in two dimensions. First of all, I’ve split team performance into Offense, Defense and Goaltending. Offense is scoring goals, Defense is preventing shots, and Goaltending is blocking shots. There is some interaction between the categories (for example, taking penalties leads to more dangerous shots, and so is considered a defensive liability) but that’s the general idea. I’m sure some people will disagree with the way I’ve proposed to assign responsibility; please feel free to comment on it, and if possible to propose a better method that is quantifiable.
In a second pass, I’ve divided up team performance according to Power-Play, Penalty-Killing, Discipline (Penalties drawn – penalties taken) and Even-Strength play. Finally, there is an 8th category, the shootout, which applies to both divisions.
As I usually do, I’ve used the same basic currency, goals, to quantify team performance in each category, and I have compared each team to the average to determine its level. This is particularly useful on special teams, where people like to throw around numbers (“Detroit is scoring at a 27% rate on the power-play!”) without being able to quantify how significant it really is. In my case, I simply calculated the number of power-play opportunities a team has had, calculate their goal differential (power-play goals score – shorthanded goals against; why do people always ignore goals against when calculating power-play efficiency?) and compare this to how many goals a league average team would have scored. So in Detroit’s case, in 293 opportunities they’ve scored 79 goals and given up 3, for a total of +76; the league average is 0.165 goals / opportunity, so an average team would be up 48.3 goals on the power-play; so Detroit’s power-play represents a contribution of 27.7 goals above average.
Here are the power rankings, up to and including games on Tuesday March 10th:
Legend:
O rat: Offensive rating. The typical number of goals you would score against an average team. Higher is better.
D rat: Defensive rating. The typical number of goals an average team would score on you. Lower is better. :
Trat: Total rating. O rat – D rat. Your typical margin of victory against an average team. Higher is better. :
Schd: Schedule difficulty (the average Trat of your opponents). Higher means harder. :
SPT: Predicted number of points at the end of the year. The standard deviation is about 5 at this point in the schedule. :
PO%: Odds of making the playoffs, in percentage. :
C%: Odds of winning the Stanley Cup, in percentage. :
Team O rat D rat Trat Schd SPT PO% C% Comment
1 Bruins 3.12 2.51 0.61 -0.02 114 100 20 Strength: Even-
strength play. The NHL's
leaders in +/- are almost all
Bruins, and it's not by
chance: the Bruins have
outscored their opponents by
an incredible 56 G's at even
strength. Weakness: None, but
Defense is the weakest point.
The Bruins' defense is only
average, and the low goals
against is due more to the
work of Tim Thomas than Chara,
Wideman & co.
2 Red Wings 3.44 2.99 0.46 -0.03 114 100 12 Strength: Offense. The Red
Wings are the NHL's top
offensive team, especially on
the power-play. This is a team
with Marian Hossa on the
second line. Weakness:
goaltending, obviously. The
Wings have had 8 goals scored
against them twice in the last
2 weeks, a trend that will
have to change if they have Cup
aspirations.
3 Sharks 3.10 2.67 0.43 0.01 117 100 13 Strength: Defense. The Sharks
keep their shots against low,
and the trio of Boyle, Blake
and Vlasic is the best top 3
in the league. Weakness: None,
but Goaltending is the weakest
point. While both Nabokov
and Boucher have played
reasonably this year, they are
the only average link on an
otherwise exceptional team.
4 Blackhawks 3.14 2.71 0.43 0.02 103 100 10 Strength: Even-strength. The
Blackhawks are one of the most
balanced teams in the league,
and they're +36 at even
strength. Weakness: None, but
Penalty Killing is the weakest
point. Even here they're above
average.
5 Devils 3.02 2.62 0.40 -0.06 108 100 11 Strength: Even-strength. The
Devils are another balanced
team, and with their only real
superstar injured for the year
they've succeeded as the
result of a team effort.
Weakness: None, but Offense if
you have to pick one. Even
here they have three of the
top forwards in the league in
Elias, Parise and Zajac.
6 Flyers 3.11 2.86 0.25 -0.02 102 98 6 Strength: Penalty-Killing. The
Flyers are one of the top 3
short-handed teams in the
league, in large part due to
their 16 short-handed goals.
Weakness: Defense.
7 Flames 3.17 2.99 0.18 -0.02 101 100 5 Strength: Offense. A strong
attack can only profit from
the addition of a strong
scorer like Olli Jokinen.
Weakness: Goaltending. Mikka
Kiprusoff is having a sub-par
year, and there's no real
alternative.
8 Capitals 3.12 2.95 0.16 -0.05 104 100 5 Strength: Offense. Tell me
you're surprised! Weakness:
Goaltending. Everyone wondered
what the Capitals were
thinking when they hitched
their fortunes to Jose
Theodore in goal. We're still
wondering.
9 Canucks 2.97 2.83 0.15 0.00 96 93 4 Strength: Even-Strength. The
Canucks are a very balanced
team, and they're +23 in even-
strength situations, 4th in
the league. In contrast,
they're -8 in all other
situations. Weakness: Penalty-
killing. The Canucks' penalty
killing needs work, especially
since they're one of the 10
most penalized teams in the
league.
10 Penguins 3.03 2.95 0.08 0.02 94 78 2 Strength: Even-Strength. The
Penguins special teams are
atrocious, but they make up
for it with strong 5-on-5
play. Weakness: Power-Play.
Did you expect a team with
Malkin and Crosby to be ranked
28th in power-play? Me neither.
11 Hurricanes 2.89 2.81 0.08 -0.04 93 66 2 Strength: Penalties. The
Hurricanes have drawn 64 more
man-advantage situations than
they've given up. Weakness:
Power-Play. Now if only they
could take advantage of all
those situations…
12 Sabres 2.92 2.85 0.07 -0.02 90 41 1 Strength: Goaltending. Ryan
Miller has really been the MVP
of this team. Weakness: Even-
strength. For a pretty good
team, the Sabres are an
unacceptable -12 at even
strength.
13 Wild 2.68 2.64 0.04 0.00 87 45 1 Strength: Goaltending. While
he's had a bad stretch the
last 2 weeks, Backstrom is
still one of the NHL's elite
goaltenders. Weakness:
Offense. With their main
offensive weapon permanently
injured, the Wild have
struggled with a no-name
offense which has been one of
the worst in the league.
14 Jackets 2.81 2.77 0.04 0.02 90 70 2 Strength: Even-Strength. The
Blue Jackets are +23 at Even-
Strength, which goes a long
way towards explaining how
they're almost a lock for the
playoffs. Weakness: Power-
Play. The Jackets' power-play
is the worst in the league, a
major sore spot they'll have
to address if they're to
improve any further.
15 Panthers 2.89 2.86 0.03 -0.01 94 76 2 Strength: Goaltending. Tomas
Vokoun is a god, and won't be
a finalist for MVP only
because most don't understand
that letting in 2 goals when
you face 45 shots is awesome.
Weakness: Defense. Why is he
getting 45 shots against?
16 Canadiens 2.96 2.98 -0.01 0.05 96 87 2 Strength: Penalty-Killing. The
Canadiens are #7 in the league
short-handed. Weakness:
Defense. Nothing on the
Canadiens has been exceptional
this year, but the shots
against need some work.
17 Blues 2.83 2.88 -0.06 0.02 85 25 0 Strength: Power-Play and
Penalty-Killing have both been
above average. Weakness: Even-
Strength. Unfortunately, the
Blues have been -23 at even-
strength, which is why their
playoff hopes are fading fast.
18 Stars 2.88 2.96 -0.08 0.00 86 35 1 Strength: Defense. The Stars
have been one of the NHL's top
defensive teams for years, and
this hasn't changed much.
Stephane Robidas has been
exceptional. Weakness:
Goaltending. Turco started off
the year horrendously, and
while he stabilized a bit the
last 2 weeks have been
terrible.
19 Predators 2.65 2.75 -0.10 0.00 86 40 1 Strength: Penalty-Killing.
Weakness: Offense. The
Predators are 25th in the
league in goals for.
20 Ducks 2.82 2.94 -0.12 0.05 84 23 0 Strength: Power-Play. Teemu
Selanne has scored 14 of his
20 goals with the man
advantage. Weakness:
Penalties. This has been a
problem for the Ducks for a
while, and it's still costing
them. They've been short-
handed 71 times more often
than their opponents.
21 Oilers 2.89 3.03 -0.14 0.01 88 54 1 Strength: Even-Strength.
Weakness: Penalty-Killing. The
Oilers hold their own even,
but their special teams are
awful, in particular the
penalty-killing, where they
can't score and surrender too
many goals.
22 Kings 2.77 2.95 -0.18 0.00 82 16 0 Strength: Defense. This is
good for the Kings, because
it's an area that's harder to
address. Weakness: Offense.
The Kings need far more
offensive depth than they have
to compete.
23 Thrashers 2.99 3.17 -0.18 -0.01 74 0 0 Strength: Offense. Weakness:
Defense. This has been the
formula in Atlanta for over 5
years and it's been a failure
every time. Score 3 goals,
give up 40 shots, hope your
goaltender steals the game. It
didn't work then and it's not
working now.
24 Senators 2.70 2.90 -0.20 -0.01 79 2 0 Strength: Defense. Weakness:
Offense. Once the NHL's
premier offensive team, the
Senators now struggle to
score, especially at even
strength. Trading Spezza
wouldn't have changed that, so
they were smart to hold on to
him.
25 Rangers 2.58 2.81 -0.24 -0.01 91 50 0 Strength: Penalty Killing. The
Rangers are the #1 Penalty-
Killing team in the NHL, the
one area they truly excel at.
Weakness: Offense. The Rangers
are the #30 offensive team in
the NHL. Last. If anyone wants
to know what's "wrong" with
the Rangers, they could start
here.
26 Maple Leafs 2.92 3.29 -0.36 0.01 81 2 0 Strength: Offense. The Maple
Leafs are an above-average
offensive team, and don't rely
on one single player to score.
Weakness: Goaltending. I don't
know if I've ever seen a team
with as bad goaltending as
Toskala, Joseph and Pogge have
provided this year.
27 Avalanche 2.72 3.08 -0.37 0.03 74 0 0 Strength: Shootout. The
Avalanche are 8-1 in shootouts
this year, first in the NHL.
Weakness: Even-Strength. With
a weak offense and weak
goaltending, the Avalanche
are -26 at even-strength, 28th
in the NHL.
28 Coyotes 2.60 3.03 -0.42 0.05 76 1 0 Strength: Penalties. The
Coyotes have had 39 more man-
advantage situations than
they've given up. Weakness:
Even-Strength, although it's a
bit of a catch all. The Coyotes
are weak across the board. For
a team that's
been "rebuilding" for so long,
they don't have much to show
for it.
29 Islanders 2.62 3.09 -0.47 -0.04 65 0 0 Strength: Penalty-Killing. The
Islanders are 9th in the
league short-handed, good at
both scoring and preventing
goals. Weakness: Even-Strength
At a league-worst -47,
the decent special teams
can't make up for a terrible
performance at other times.
Only the goaltending of Yann
Danis is NHL-worthy.
30 Lightning 2.74 3.24 -0.49 0.02 70 0 0 Strength: Goaltending. This is
refreshing, because since
the departure of Khabibulin
the Lightning have had a
goaltending problem, and it
seems as if Mike Smith is the
answer. Weakness: Defense. The
Lightning are 30th in shots
against (worse than the
Thrashers!), they don't have
an NHL-caliber blue line, and
their best defensive player is
a forward, Martin St. Louis.
Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.
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