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This season, the Olympics will preempt the NHL All-Star game, but that's no reason to forgo celebrating the top talent the NHL has to offer.
Normally, all-star selections are chosen by fans, GMs and the NHL's Hockey Operation Department based on reputation. But for a change, we'll determine what the teams would look like in the same manner we determine our weekly player rankings -- using GVT. The GVT metric summarizes all of a player's offensive and defensive contributions in the season using a single measurement. It, in effect, measures how effectively a player is contributing to his team.
To best simulate the selection process, we used the GVT scores from Jan 17., about the time the rosters are usually announced. We may not wind up with the rosters that offer the most fan entertainment, but we will wind up with the two most effective collections of hockey talent this season. Of course, this will leave more than a few stars snubbed, including some that will skate for the Canadian Olympic team.
Goalies
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending Component of GVT
DGVT: Defensive Component of GVT
SOGVT: Shootout Component of GVT
GVT: Total Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT)
Eastern Conference
Name Team GGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Ryan Miller Buffalo Sabres 26.9 -0.6 -0.6 25.7
Henrik Lundqvist New York Rangers 18.4 -0.3 0.1 18.2
Martin Brodeur New Jersey Devils 13.5 1.3 2.3 16.8
Western Conference
Name Team GGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Evgeni Nabokov San Jose Sharks 18.6 -0.3 2.4 20.7
Jimmy Howard Detroit Red Wings 14.8 -0.1 1.8 16.5
Miikka Kiprusoff Calgary Flames 18.8 0.2 -3.9 15.0
Team Canada is bringing Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo and Marc-Andre Fleury to the Vancouver Games, but if it weren't for Brodeur's fine shootout performance relative to Tomas Vokoun's, none of them would have been invited to our fictional All-Star game. The truth is that, as brilliant as Fleury has been in the recent playoffs, he'd have to be excluded based on his paltry .908 save percentage. This season's head-standing performances in the West from Evgeni Nabokov, Miikka Kiprusoff and Detroit's surprising Jimmy Howard, have left some exceptional backstoppers such as Luongo, Craig Anderson and Ilya Bryzgalov at home, having to buy tickets to attend our hypothetical event.
Defensemen
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending Component of GVT
DGVT: Defensive Component of GVT
SOGVT: Shootout Component of GVT
GVT: Total Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT)
Eastern Conference
Name Team OGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Mike Green Washington Capitals 10.6 3.1 -0.3 13.4
Chris Pronger Philadelphia Flyers 5.6 5.1 0.0 10.6
Tobias Enstrom Atlanta Thrashers 6.8 2.3 0.0 9.1
Tomas Kaberle Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5 2.3 -0.3 8.6
Zdeno Chara Boston Bruins 3.5 4.4 0.4 8.3
Tyler Myers Buffalo Sabres 4.0 3.7 0.0 7.7
Western Conference
Name Team OGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Duncan Keith Chicago Blackhawks 9.1 5.6 0.0 14.7
Drew Doughty Los Angeles Kings 5.8 4.5 0.7 11.0
Brian Campbell Chicago Blackhawks 5.3 4.6 0.0 9.8
Lubomir Visnovsky Edmonton Oilers 5.5 3.4 0.0 8.9
Brent Seabrook Chicago Blackhawks 2.0 6.2 0.7 8.8
Dan Boyle San Jose Sharks 6.6 2.7 -0.6 8.7
Whoever the officials were for this game, they would probably hold up the opening faceoff while they looked for 10-time all-star Nicklas Lidstrom, who would be nowhere to be found. Lidstrom only has three goals and 26 points so far this season, and as brilliant as he's been defensively, Chicago's young blueliners Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are even better.
Forwards
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending Component of GVT
DGVT: Defensive Component of GVT
SOGVT: Shootout Component of GVT
GVT: Total Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT)
Eastern Conference
Name Team OGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals 15.3 2.5 -0.6 17.1
Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins 11.2 2.2 3.1 16.4
Zach Parise New Jersey Devils 7.9 3.6 1.8 13.3
Marian Gaborik New York Rangers 10.6 2.9 -0.6 12.9
Nicklas Backstrom Washington Capitals 10.0 2.0 0.4 12.4
Ilya Kovalchuk Atlanta Thrashers 11.1 0.9 0.1 12.2
Alexander Semin Washington Capitals 8.4 1.5 0.0 9.9
Jamie Langenbrunner New Jersey Devils 5.6 3.0 0.8 9.4
Mike Fisher Ottawa Senators 5.3 3.0 0.7 9.0
Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay Lightning 7.6 1.6 -0.6 8.6
Tomas Plekanec Montreal Canadiens 6.9 2.7 -1.0 8.6
Mike Richards Philadelphia Flyers 6.6 2.2 -0.3 8.5
Western Conference
Name Team OGVT DGVT SOGVT GVT
Henrik Sedin Vancouver Canucks 13.8 2.9 0.0 16.7
Patrick Marleau San Jose Sharks 11.1 3.6 -0.9 13.8
Patrick Kane Chicago Blackhawks 10.3 2.6 0.4 13.3
Joe Thornton San Jose Sharks 11.1 2.0 -0.6 11.7
Dany Heatley San Jose Sharks 10.6 1.7 -0.6 11.7
Jonathan Toews Chicago Blackhawks 5.9 2.9 1.8 10.6
Alex Burrows Vancouver Canucks 7.4 3.0 0.0 10.4
Mikko Koivu Minnesota Wild 6.3 2.3 1.8 10.3
Daniel Sedin Vancouver Canucks 7.7 2.2 0.0 10.0
Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings 6.9 2.2 0.4 9.5
Pavel Datsyuk Detroit Red Wings 4.6 2.6 2.1 9.3
Loui Eriksson Dallas Stars 7.1 2.4 -0.3 9.3
Up front for the East, fans that would normally expect to see Evgeni Malkin, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Daniel Alfredsson suit up would be scratching their heads when Tomas Plekanec, Jamie Langenbrunner and Mike Fisher skated out instead. Malkin et al may make for a more exciting game, but if you wanted the best all-around players this season, you would opt for these names, chosen by the dispassionate eye of GVT. For example, Fisher leads the Ottawa Senators in shots and goals, is second in points (trailing Alfredsson by a single point) and his plus-9 is second on the Senators only to Nick Foligno. Malkin, St. Louis and Lecavalier all have 50 points, but they have also struggled defensively, with plus/minus ratings of plus-1 or worse. It makes sense to go with Team USA Captain Jamie Langenbrunner -- who has 45 points, two short-handed goals and is plus-12 -- and Tomas Plekanec, who leads Montreal with 51 points and is third on the Habs at plus-4.
Taking a look at the West, Rick Nash, Jarome Iginla and Anaheim's power pair of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have all been issued tickets to the Vancouver Games by Team Canada, but didn't make the cut here because of their struggles in their own end. Each has a negative plus/minus, lowlighted by Nash at minus-12. For the same reasons that apply in the East, you're better off with better defensive wingers like Loui Eriksson, Mikko Koivu and Alex Burrows, and once again you don't give up much offense -- they're only one to five points behind the Team Canada stars in scoring this season.
If we didn't consider the shootout, Dustin Penner and Brad Richards would both make the squad. But it's important to remember that of the five All-Star games we've enjoyed since the format changed to the current East vs. West set up, two of them were settled by a shootout. If that were to happen again, the Western Conference all-star team would have a significant advantage, thanks to much better shootout goaltending from Evgeni Nabokov or Jimmy Howard, and shootout craftsmen such as Pavel Datsyuk, Mikko Koivu and Jonathan Toews. Love it or hate it, the shootout is an important factor in today's NHL and can't be ignored.
So how would such a game unfold?
Our fictional 2010 edition of the NHL All-Star game would no doubt be as close and exciting as it has been in previous years. If teams were selected objectively based on individual player contributions so far this season, the advantage the Eastern Conference holds offensively and between the pipes would likely overcome the defensive edge ceded to the Western Conference.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider  .
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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