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The 2010 Winter Olympic Games that will take place in Vancouver are right around the corner, with the opening ceremony taking place Friday night, the twelfth of February. With the NHL break coming up fast, it's time to turn our attention towards the Olympics with an evaluation of how each country will fare, starting with the teams with the lowest odds of taking the Gold. While we will have plenty of projections in GVT for all of the seriously contending countries next week, this week we will be focusing on teams that are long shots with close to replacement level rosters (Team GVTs around 0).
Norway
Appearances (Including 2010)
Total Appearances: 10
Medals
Gold: 0
Silver: 0
Bronze: 0
Roster
Goalies
G Pål Grotnes
G André Lysenstoen
G Ruben Smith
Defensemen
D Alexander Bonsaksen
D Jonas Holos
D Tommy Jakobsen
D Juha Kaunismäki
D Lars Erik Lund
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen
D Mats Trygg
Forwards
F Morten Ask
F Anders Bastiansen
F Kristian Forsberg
F Mads Hansen
F Marius Holtet
F Lars Erik Spets
F Mathis Olimb
F Martin Roymark
F Per-Åge Skroder
F Patrick Thoresen
F Tore Vikingstad
F Martin Laumann Ylven
F Mats Zuccarello Aasen
Defenseman Ole-Kristian Tollefsen is only the fifth Norwegian to ever play a game in the NHL, joining the likes of Bjųrn Skaare, Anders Myrvold, Espen Knutsen, and Patrick Thoresen. It's not a good sign for your team when the most established player on your roster has five points in his best NHL season. Nonetheless the 25 year old, Oslo native will attempt to lead his team to a top three finish in this year's Olympic Games.
While this squad may not have the star power that Canada, Russia and the US have, it's still a respectable team that will be able to remain competitive in games until the end of play. Though if they end up winning any kind of medal, it would be an even greater upset than the Miracle On Ice of 1980. It also hurts that they are in the most difficult division of these Olympics, being placed in Group A, along with the United States, Canada and Switzerland. Three consecutive losses to start the tournament seem likely, though they can still win a game under the right circumstances.
Norway has struggled to even qualify for the Olympics for the last decade and a half with their last Winter Games appearance taking place back in 1994, when they finished 11th of 12th. So on the bright side, they have a legitimate shot at placing higher than they did the last time they qualified for the Olympics.
While Norway will feature only one player, Tommy Jakobsen, who was on the roster for the team's last Olympic appearance in 1994, three other players (Tore Vikingstad, Per-Åge Skroder and Mats Trygg) all have plenty of experience with this team in the Ice Hockey World Championships. Unfortunately, during their run together in the post-1994 Olympic appearance era, they only finished as high as eighth once.
Usually, there is no such thing as a moral victory. However, if Norway can pull off an upset against Switzerland and faceoff against a team such as Germany in the fourth game and win, then I think they will have accomplished more than they could have ever imagined.
Belarus
Appearances (Including 2010)
Total Appearances: 3
Medals
Gold: 0
Silver: 0
Bronze: 0
Roster
Goalies
G Vitali Koval
G Maxim Malyutin
G Andrei Mezin
Defensemen
D Andrei Antonov
D Andrei Bashko
D Vladimir Denisov
D Viktor Kostiuchenok
D Ruslan Salei
D Nikolai Stasenko
D Vadim Sushko
D Alexander Syrei
Forwards
F Oleg Antonenko
F Sergei Demagin
F Mikhail Grabovski
F Alexei Kalyuzhny
F Konstantin Koltsov
F Andrei Kostitsyn
F Sergei Kostitsyn
F Alexander Kulakov
F Andrei Mikhalev
F Andrei Stas
F Alexei Ugarov
F Sergei Zadelenov
Belarus, which came as close as one game to obtaining the Bronze medal in 2002, has more established talent than Norway (4 NHL players to 1), but is still unlikely to make any noise over the next couple of weeks of Olympic play. The Kostitsyn brothers from the Montreal Canadiens as well as Toronto's Mikhail Grabovski should be able to keep Belarus in their first three games with offense, while the Avalanche's Ruslan Salei is capable of providing adequate defense in the Group C division. Unlike Norway, Belarus' group involves mediocre opponents in Finland, Germany and Sweden, which gives this team a realistic shot of winning one of the first three games, though don't expect anything resembling the run of 2002 to happen again.
Belarus has only a brief history in the Winter Games, with their first appearance being twelve years ago in 1998. Their first chance to qualify was four years earlier in 1994, but couldn't win one of the final seeds to get into the tournament. While head coach Andrei Gusov shouldn't expect much from his team this time around, they should be able to win at least one game. The 2002 run was the result of their upset victory over Sweden and they'll certainly get another chance to defeat Team Sweden in a little over a week, but it would be a surprise if they finished ahead of them in Group C. However, Belarus is capable of finishing ahead of either Finland or Germany.
In the International Ice Hockey Federation World Championships, Belarus has never shined. While they have placed better than Norway, they have never finished first nor even in the top five. As for these Olympics, don't expect much from Belarus but don't expect to see them flop either. A reasonable outlook would be a 1-2 start and a win over a team such as Slovakia in the fourth game. They're not likely to go any further than that, though. Then again, I would not have given them a chance in 2002 against Sweden in the Quarter-finals.
Latvia
Appearances (Including 2010)
Total Appearances: 4
Medals
Gold: 0
Silver: 0
Bronze: 0
Roster
Goalies
G Edgars Masaļskis
G Ervīns Muštukovs
G Sergejs Naumovs
Defensemen
D Kārlis Skrastiņš
D Oskars Bārtulis
D Georgijs Pujacs
D Rodrigo Laviņš
D Guntis Galviņš
D Kristaps Sotnieks
D Krišjānis Rēdlihs
D Arvīds Reķis
Forwards
F Lauris Dārziņš
F Armands Bērziņš
F Herberts Vasiļjevs
F Miķelis Rēdlihs
F Ģirts Ankipāns
F Mārtiņš Cipulis
F Jānis Sprukts
F Aleksejs Širokovs
F Aleksandrs Ņiživijs
F Kaspars Daugaviņš
F Gints Meija
F Mārtiņš Karsums
What's the difference between Latvia and the two previously reviewed teams in this article? Not much. Three players from this roster play in the NHL (Kārlis Skrastiņš, Oskars Bārtulis and Kaspars Daugaviņš), while the others aren't well known nor are there any outstanding talents present.
In order to finish in the middle of the pack, Olegs Znaroks will have to outcoach at least two other teams and have a lot of luck come his way. With only a small sample size of games being played, maybe we're more likely to see another 2002 Belarus than not. However, even only over the course of a few games, Latvia will be hard-pressed to win one game.
In Group B, Latvia will have to face Russia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which makes this division easier to square off against than Group A, but more difficult than Group C. Latvia has never finished higher than ninth and it's hard to see them finishing any higher than that again in 2010. Latvia might win a game, but more likely than not they'll be in the basement when all is said and done.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
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