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Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa
For the third time in four years Pittsburgh and Ottawa will square off in the opening round of the NHL playoffs in what will almost unquestionably be a high-scoring, seven-game duel between two eerily similar teams. Will the winner of this series advance to the Stanley Cup Finals for the third time?
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Ottawa Defense
Pittsburgh Penguins Offense: 25.7 GVT (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Ottawa Senators Defense: 2.5 GVT (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Ottawa Senators Goaltending: -18.9 GVT (Rank: 25th in NHL)
Total: Pittsburgh +42.1 GVT
Pittsburgh has the league's 4th best offense at even-strength and 5th best offense overall, thanks in part to a truly incredible season from captain Sidney Crosby. Having Evgeni Malkin on the second line will defy any team with only a single shut-down line. In 2008-09 their success was due in part to getting secondary scorers to complement the big two, so the pressure is actually on their top secondary scorers: Jordan Staal, Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz and the newly-acquired Alexei Ponikarovsky. Sergei Gonchar and Alex Goligoski give the Penguins two good puck-moving defensemen, but Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang and Jordan Leopold are no slouches either. Their average offensive GVT per game is 1.05 above a team of replacement-level players.
Ottawa has an average defense, but are blessed with solid defensive blueliners in Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov and Matt Carkner. The Senators lack any clear shut-down forwards, but good two-way players like Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher should be able to take advantage of some of the Penguins offense-only scorers like Malkin, Kunitz and Bill Guerin. Overall the Senators defensive GVT is a decent 0.62 above replacement-level, but they're goaltending is 2nd worst in the league, better than only Chicago's. Having Brian Elliott at his best will give the Senators the edge they need, but it might not be enough.
Advantage: Pittsburgh Penguins
Ottawa Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Ottawa Senators Offense: -2.1 GVT (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Pittsburgh Penguins Defense: 3.3 GVT (Rank: 9th in NHL)
Pittsburgh Penguins Goaltending: -15.4 GVT (Rank: 23rd in NHL)
Total: Ottawa +10.0 GVT
Ottawa is fairly pedestrian on offense, with an offensive GVT of 0.65 per game. Daniel Alfredsson leads the way, followed by Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher. They lack offense from the point, and will be relying on one-way offensive rookie Erik Karlsson and a speedy return from Filip Kuba. In Alex Kovalev's absence they'll also have to rely on their five or six secondary scorers to chip in with some extra offense.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are roughly average defensively, totaling about 0.61 defensive GVT per game. Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke will try to shut down Alfredsson and Spezza early and often, while a combination of Brooks Orpik, the effective stay-at-home defensemen Mark Eaton and Jay McKee will attempt to keep the remainder of Ottawa's offense in check. Like Ottawa, the Achilles heel of this Penguin team is between the pipes, where Marc-Andre Fleury's save percentage has slowly melted from .921 to .912 and finally .906 this season with only one shutout.
Advantage: Even
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Goaltending GVT
TGVT: Total GVT, includes Shootout GVT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM OGVT DGVT TGVT
Sidney Crosby F 81 51 58 109 15 18.7 22.0 3.7 29.5
Evgeni Malkin F 67 28 49 77 -6 -2.0 12.3 1.2 13.8
Jordan Staal F 82 21 28 49 19 15.2 6.5 5.8 12.3
Sergei Gonchar D 62 11 39 50 -4 -1.4 8.3 3.6 11.9
Alex Goligoski D 69 8 29 37 7 8.2 5.4 4.1 9.3
Pascal Dupuis F 81 18 20 38 5 1.8 5.3 2.8 8.7
Alexei Ponikarovsky F 77 21 29 50 -1 7.4 4.2 2.7 8.1
Brooks Orpik D 73 2 23 25 6 2.1 3.2 3.9 7.1
Matt Cooke F 79 15 15 30 17 14.0 2.4 4.6 7.0
Kris Letang D 73 3 24 27 1 -0.6 2.8 2.9 6.3
Jordan Leopold D 81 11 15 26 -2 -1.0 3.6 2.7 6.3
Chris Kunitz F 50 13 19 32 3 3.4 4.7 1.2 6.2
Tyler Kennedy F 64 13 12 25 10 9.1 3.2 1.8 5.0
Mark Eaton D 79 3 13 16 5 0.9 0.2 4.3 4.5
Jay McKee D 62 1 9 10 6 1.9 -0.2 3.8 3.6
Bill Guerin F 78 21 24 45 -9 -5.3 2.9 0.7 2.9
Mike Rupp F 81 13 6 19 5 4.0 1.3 1.4 2.7
Ruslan Fedotenko F 80 11 19 30 -17 -17.3 0.8 -0.1 0.7
Craig Adams F 82 0 10 10 -5 -8.9 -2.8 2.7 -0.1
Eric Godard F 45 1 2 3 2 1.8 -1.1 0.6 -0.6
Maxime Talbot F 45 2 5 7 -9 -10.6 -2.1 0.4 -1.7
Goalie GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT TGVT
Marc-Andre Fleury 63.3 2.65 0.905 0.0 1.0 2.1
Brent Johnson 18.5 2.76 0.906 0.1 0.1 1.7
Ottawa Senators
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM OGVT DGVT TGVT
Daniel Alfredsson F 70 20 51 71 8 13.4 11.0 4.0 14.8
Mike Fisher F 79 25 28 53 1 4.7 7.0 4.2 11.4
Jason Spezza F 60 23 34 57 -1 5.1 8.3 2.2 11.1
Chris Phillips D 82 8 16 24 8 10.3 2.4 6.7 9.1
Alexei Kovalev F 77 18 31 49 -8 -1.6 4.1 1.8 7.6 ** Injured **
Filip Kuba D 53 3 25 28 -5 -1.6 2.6 3.7 6.3
Chris Kelly F 81 15 17 32 -7 -5.8 2.8 3.1 5.9
Peter Regin F 75 13 16 29 10 12.8 3.5 2.3 5.8
Erik Karlsson D 60 5 21 26 -5 -0.5 3.7 1.8 5.5
Matt Cullen F 81 16 32 48 -7 -1.0 3.5 2.7 5.5
Anton Volchenkov D 64 4 10 14 2 3.9 0.5 4.2 4.7
Milan Michalek F 66 22 12 34 -12 -8.5 2.8 2.1 4.6
Chris Campoli D 67 4 14 18 -3 0.2 1.9 2.2 4.1
Nick Foligno F 61 9 17 26 6 8.9 2.5 1.8 4.0
Matt Carkner D 81 2 9 11 0 1.5 -0.8 4.2 3.4
Jarkko Ruutu F 82 12 14 26 -2 0.4 0.6 2.6 3.0
Chris Neil F 68 10 12 22 -1 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.9
Andy Sutton D 72 5 8 13 -10 -6.3 0.3 1.4 1.8
Jesse Winchester F 52 2 11 13 -1 -0.2 -0.4 1.5 1.1
Zack Smith F 15 2 1 3 2 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.6
Brian Lee D 23 2 1 3 -5 -4.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
Shean Donovan F 30 2 3 5 -4 -3.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.4
Ryan Shannon F 66 5 11 16 -12 -9.2 -1.2 0.3 -0.4
Goalie GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT TGVT
Brian Elliott 50.6 2.57 0.909 3.5 0.8 4.0
Pascal Leclaire 29.1 3.20 0.887 -11.5 0.4 -12.5
Pittsburgh Power Play vs. Ottawa Penalty Kill
Pittsburgh Power Play: -4.6 GVT (Rank: 27th in NHL)
Ottawa Penalty Kill: 7.3 GVT (Rank: 8th in NHL)
Total: Ottawa +11.9 GVT
Despite having Crosby and Malkin, the Penguins have the 3rd worst power play among playoff teams, whereas the Senators have a top-10 penalty kill. Ottawa is free to be as aggressive as they like knowing that the threat Pittsburgh poses with the man advantage isn't as severe as it once was.
Advantage: Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Power Play vs. Pittsburgh Penalty Kill
Ottawa Power Play: -1.8 GVT (Rank: 26th in NHL)
Pittsburgh Penalty Kill: 7.7 GVT (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Total: Pittsburgh +9.5 GVT
The Ottawa Senators have a below average power play, especially without specialist Alexei Kovalev, meaning that Pittsburgh's penalty kill -- which is a hair better than Ottawa's -- should be sufficient. If either team gets their power play working this series will be shorter than we predict.
Advantage: Pittsburgh Penguins
Season Series
Amazingly, all four games between these two clubs were decided by at least three goals, but they split the season series 2-2, with Pittsburgh outscoring Ottawa 15-13. If this trend continues, the series may be close, but not the individual games within.
Advantage: Even
Injuries and Intangibles
After making the playoffs for the first time this decade in 2006-07, the Pittsburgh Penguins were knocked off by the Ottawa Senators in five games en route to the Stanley Cup Finals. The next season Pittsburgh returned the favor, sweeping the Senators en route to a Stanley Cup appearance of their own. Could this pattern repeat itself a third time?
Unfortunately the Ottawa Senators will have to do without the services of high-scoring power play specialist Alexei Kovalev, who will be out for the rest of the year with a torn left ACL. They may even have to struggle through at least the opening round without their top puck-moving defenseman Filip Kuba, who is recovering from back surgery. Pittsburgh's worst-case scenario is missing a few role players like Matt Cooke (concussion), Brooks Orpik (leg laceration) or Chris Kunitz (shoulder) for a game or two.
The defending Stanley Cup champions also enjoy the momentum, going 11-9 down the stretch compared to an 8-11 record in the nation's capital. Ottawa has been a streaky team, suffering through a tough March, losing 8 of 9 almost exclusively to the league's worst teams, before winning 6 in a row and then closing out the season with 3 losses in 4 games. We're predicting a long, high-scoring series, but you could make a case for a sweep (but in whose favor?).
Advantage: Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction
Using our traditional methods, Puck Prospectus gives the Pittsburgh Penguins a 58% chance of winning this series. By going into more detail and breaking down the numbers, we can see that these are two very similar teams that will probably swap high-scoring blowouts. Both teams are weak in the net with struggling power plays, but in the end Pittsburgh has the more potent offense and fewer injury concerns.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins in 7 games.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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