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Washington vs. Montreal
Most hockey fans are of the opinion that the NHL’s regular season is too long. Yet despite the endless stretch of games from October to April, every point counts and can make a difference. The Montreal Canadiens have learned this lesson in a painful way. With 3 games left in the regular season, the Canadiens were nested in the 6th position in the Eastern Conference and needed only 2 points to make the playoffs, with their 3 remaining games against the New York Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs, all teams whose short-term futures would include lots of soul-searching and golf. But the Canadiens fell in overtime to the Islanders, and were destroyed 5-2 by Eric Staal’s Hurricanes. They managed to eke out the last point against Toronto, in another overtime loss, but their poor season-end dropped them two places down in the standings, and instead of a competitive series against the Buffalo Sabres or New Jersey Devils, they now face the juggernaut of the NHL – the Washington Capitals.
That being said, how do the Canadiens stack up against the Capitals?
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
TGVT: Total GVT
Washington Capitals
Player P GP RPM OGVT DGVT SGVT TGVT
Alexander Ovechkin F 68 26.8 25.2 3.6 -0.7 28.1
Nicklas Backstrom F 78 13.6 18.1 2.9 0.9 21.9
Mike Green D 73 13.9 16.8 4.8 -0.5 21.0
Alexander Semin F 69 16.7 17.4 2.8 -0.2 20.0
Brooks Laich F 74 -0.0 10.0 1.6 0.0 11.6
Mike Knuble F 66 8.6 9.2 1.9 0.3 11.4
Tomas Fleischmann F 66 -3.3 9.0 1.1 -0.2 9.9
Eric Fehr F 66 9.8 8.0 1.8 -0.5 9.3
Brendan Morrison F 72 9.7 5.5 2.1 -0.5 7.2
Jeff Schultz D 69 19.5 2.4 4.6 0.0 6.9
Tom Poti D 67 5.9 2.8 3.0 0.0 5.9
Brian Pothier D 41 4.3 1.7 1.5 0.0 3.2
Matt Bradley F 74 -2.9 2.4 0.8 -0.3 3.0
Jason Chimera F 35 0.1 2.1 0.7 0.0 2.8
John Carlson D 20 6.3 0.6 1.3 0.0 1.9
Mathieu Perreault F 21 1.2 1.5 0.4 -0.3 1.7
Chris Clark F 38 -9.1 1.2 -0.3 0.5 1.5
Boyd Gordon F 34 -0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.4
John Erskine D 48 5.5 -0.6 1.9 0.0 1.3
Shaone Morrisonn D 64 -5.4 -0.1 1.2 0.0 1.1
Scott Walker F 6 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.8
Keith Aucoin F 9 -3.4 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.5
Kyle Wilson F 2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4
Alexandre Giroux F 9 1.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4
Eric Belanger F 14 -1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
Joe Corvo D 14 -7.2 0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.3
Dave Steckel F 76 -5.4 -0.9 1.2 0.0 0.3
Jay Beagle F 6 -1.8 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Tyler Sloan D 37 -8.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Karl Alzner D 21 -7.3 0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1
Boyd Kane F 3 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
Milan Jurcina D 27 -5.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3
Chris Bourque F 1 -2.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3
Andrew Gordon F 2 -2.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.5
Quintin Laing F 34 -2.4 -1.1 0.4 0.0 -0.7
Goalie P GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT SGVT TGVT
Semyon Varlamov G 23.4 2.55 .909 1.9 0.4 2.1 4.3
Michal Neuvirth G 14.5 2.75 .914 2.6 -0.3 -0.0 2.3
Jose Theodore G 41.1 2.81 .911 3.1 -0.7 -1.5 0.9
Montreal Canadiens
Player P GP RPM OGVT DGVT SGVT TGVT
Tomas Plekanec F 79 11.4 10.6 3.6 -0.7 13.5
Brian Gionta F 58 6.6 5.4 2.4 1.1 8.9
Michael Cammalleri F 62 12.6 6.5 2.4 -0.2 8.7
Andrei Markov D 42 15.1 4.7 4.1 -0.3 8.5
Scott Gomez F 75 4.7 5.9 2.5 -0.4 8.0
Marc-Andre Bergeron D 57 -6.0 6.3 0.5 0.0 6.7
Andrei Kostitsyn F 56 7.0 4.1 1.5 0.6 6.1
Benoit Pouliot F 36 12.2 4.1 1.7 -0.3 5.6
Roman Hamrlik D 72 -0.5 2.0 3.5 0.0 5.5
Glen Metropolit F 69 0.7 3.8 1.1 0.0 4.9
Jaroslav Spacek D 72 11.8 0.1 4.6 0.0 4.8
Sergei Kostitsyn F 45 3.4 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.6
Dominic Moore F 18 2.7 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.9
Josh Gorges D 79 3.5 -2.0 3.8 0.0 1.8
Hal Gill D 65 -9.7 0.2 1.3 0.0 1.5
Mathieu Darche F 27 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.0
P.K. Subban* D 2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7
Travis Moen F 78 -3.4 -1.4 2.0 0.0 0.6
Ryan O'Byrne D 52 -0.6 -1.4 1.5 0.0 0.1
Max Pacioretty F 52 -4.4 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1
Mathieu Carle D 3 1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
Jay Leach D 7 -0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2
Brock Trotter F 2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
David Desharnais F 6 -0.9 -0.2 -0.0 0.0 -0.2
Shawn Belle D 2 -2.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3
James Wyman F 3 -2.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4
Gregory Stewart F 5 -3.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.6
Yannick Weber D 5 -5.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.8
Ryan White F 16 -6.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.9
Ben Maxwell F 13 -2.0 -0.9 -0.0 0.0 -1.0
Georges Laraque F 28 -6.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 -1.1
Guillaume Latendresse F 23 -3.8 -0.9 -0.0 -0.3 -1.2
Paul Mara D 43 -15.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 -1.3
Tom Pyatt F 37 -5.2 -1.7 0.2 0.0 -1.5
Maxim Lapierre F 73 -15.7 -2.1 0.2 0.3 -1.5
Kyle Chipchura F 19 -10.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 -2.0
Matt D'Agostini F 40 -11.9 -1.7 -0.5 0.0 -2.3
Goalie P GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT SGVT TGVT
Jaroslav Halak G 40.7 2.40 .924 19.9 -0.7 2.5 21.7
Carey Price G 39.3 2.77 .912 5.9 -0.7 0.3 5.5
Washington Offense vs. Montreal Defense
Washington Even Strengh Offense GVT: +67.1 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Montreal Even Strength Defense GVT: -9.2 (Rank: 24th in NHL)
Montreal Even Strength Goaltending GVT: +14.0 (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Ouch. Washington scored an incredible 208 goals at 5-on-5, far ahead of 2nd place Chicago at 179 and 40% more than the league average. The Capitals have one of the two most potent lines in the league in Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Knuble (along with the Sharks’ Thornton/Marleau/Heatley). Ovechkin and company were so dominant in the offensive zone that their opponents rarely got any good scoring chances: Ovechkin’s personal GAA was 1.75, 2nd best in the league among forwards. But the Capitals also have depth: their second line features Alexander Semin, a player who would be the offensive crown jewel on almost any other team in the league, and three more 20-goal scorers plus the NHL’s best offensive defenseman Mike Green.
The only danger for the Capitals offense is that it relies on high shooting percentage. The Capitals only take 8% more shots than the average NHL team (not bad when you consider they’re almost always in the lead, which tends to depress shot volumes. However, their even-strength shooting percentage of 10.4% was by far the highest in the league, which makes it ripe for a letdown. But don’t count on too big of a regression: over the last three years, Ovechkin and Semin have been the #2 and #3 most efficient shooters in the league (Kovalchuk is #1), and Mike Green has been #1 among defensemen, which means their percentages may be sustainable.
The Canadiens’ even-strength defense has been nothing to write home about: they’ve allowed 30.7 shots per 60 minutes, 24th in the league: of playoff teams, only Colorado has been worse. The Canadiens have relied excessively on Jaroslav Halak to bail them out, and so far he’s delivered. However, the Canadiens’ division rivals, Buffalo, Boston, Ottawa and Toronto, are all below-average offensive teams. Handling Washington will be harder, but if anybody is up to the task it’s Halak. Expect the Montreal media to start questioning whether the Canadiens should start Carey Price as soon as the Canadiens lose game 1.
The Canadiens will likely send their skill guys of Gionta, Pouliot, Gomez and Markov against the Capitals top line, a matchup the Capitals shouldn’t shy away from.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Washington Defense vs. Montreal Offense
Montreal Even Strength Offense GVT: -23.5 (Rank: 29th in NHL)
Washington Even Strength Defense GVT: +0.3 (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Washington Even Strength Goaltending GVT: +4.9 (Rank: 11th in NHL)
Double ouch. The Canadiens 130 goals at 5-on-5 were a league low. It’s not as if they helped themselves: their 26.7 shots per 60 minutes were worse than all teams but Minnesota, and we all know how that turned out. Unlike the Capitals, the Canadiens are not gifted with talented shooters: of their top forwards, only Mike Cammalleri is a sniper. Brian Gionta has shot 7.5% at even strength over the last three seasons, and Scott Gomez a minuscule 4.5%. However, at least they control the play: Gionta’s DeltaSOT was a team-leading +5.4, with Pouliot posting a +2.3 and Gomez having a +1.9, the only Canadiens line that was consistently positive. The Habs also have another good line, with Tomas Plekanec and Cammalleri.
Other than Green, the Washington blue line is a pretty anonymous bunch, with Tom Poti and Jeff Schultz usually getting the shutdown jobs. The Capitals’ defense was rarely tested this season, both because their team usually dominated play and because they play in the weak Southeast division. An interesting subplot is the return of Capitals’ goaltender Jose Theodore against his former team, with whom Plekanec has already started a war of words. While much is made of Theodore’s recent 20-0-3 streak, that is a team accomplishment, he has nonetheless been adequate for the Caps with a 0.911 save percentage and +4.0 goaltending GVT. Against an anemic Montreal offense, that should be enough.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Washington Power Play vs. Montreal Penalty Kill
Washington Power Play GVT: +20.5 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Montreal Penalty Kill GVT: +1.1 (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Well, at least it’s closer. The Capitals, unsurprisingly, had the best power play in the NHL, and it was not luck: they bombarded the net with good shots, leading to an expected 7.8 goals per 60 minutes, 20% above the league average. Thanks to their superior (or lucky, depending on your point of view) shooting, they actually scored 9.1 goals per 60 minutes, tops in the league by a fair margin. The real engines of the power play were Backstrom and Green; as long as Backstrom was on the ice, the Capitals scored 10.6 goals per 60 minutes, otherwise 6.9. As for Green, there was no “off the ice” for him: he played a team-high 349 minutes at 5-on-4. If you look at the Capitals players and asked “who did I most often play with on the power play”, for 15 players the answer has been Mike Green.
The Canadiens’ penalty-killing was decent: they allowed shots on goal and goals against at rates 10% to 15% below league average. The top penalty killers were Travis Moen, with a 4-on-5 DeltaSOT of +2.6, Scott Gomez at +1.7 and Roman Hamrlik at +1.1. The Canadiens’ problem was overworking their penalty killers: the Canadiens were short-handed 45 times more often than their opponents, the worst rate in the league. Against the best power play in the NHL, that’s a losing strategy.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Montreal Power Play vs. Washington Penalty Kill
Montreal Power Play GVT: +6.9 (Rank: 7th in NHL)
Washington Penalty Kill GVT: -12.1 (Rank: 27th in NHL)
Finally, an area where the Canadiens shine! It stands to reason that a team with small forwards would have more success at 5-on-4 than 5-on-5, where space is at a premium, and indeed this was the case in Montreal. Their shot rate was 17% better than the league average. Most of the Canadiens players who got a regular shift on the power play performed well, including Cammalleri, Gionta, Gomez, Hamrlik and Plekanec, and the unit really roared to life once Markov returned from injury. If only they could have gone on the power play more often, this would have been an even bigger source of advantage for them.
The penalty kill was the Capitals’ one weak spot over the course of the season, but it’s hard to tell whether this was shooting luck once again or skill. The Capitals only allowed 49 shots against per 60 minutes, lower than the league average of 52, but their goaltenders could only muster a 0.855 save percentage. If the Canadiens are going to do any damage to the Capitals, this is the place.
Advantage: Montreal Canadiens
Other Stuff
As mentioned earlier, the Canadiens went to the box far too often for their own good, and they’ll have to work on discipline and drawing penalties if they want to have a chance in this series. Ryan O’Byrne and Hal Gill, in particular, will have to watch themselves. The Capitals were not particularly good in this area either: their top stars Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin were all negative in the penalty department, a rare occurrence for skill players, but overall the Caps were only -8 in the penalty department.
The Capitals are slightly better than the Canadiens in the faceoff circle, winning 51% of their draws vs. 49% for Montreal. Backstrom is good, Laich and Fleischman are bad, and Dave Steckel is awesome, winning 60% of his draws. Unfortunately, Steckel is not otherwise an elite player, so the important draws he’ll take will be on the penalty kill. Nobody distinguishes themselves in Montreal except for Gomez, who is above average.
The Canadiens will have the advantage of playing under no pressure, as even hockey-mad Montreal understands that they aren’t expected to win this series. However, pressure is often overstated, and the only time I can see the Capitals really worrying is if they head to Montreal for game 3 down 2-0.
Advantage: Slight edge to the Washington Capitals
Season Series
Amazingly, the Canadiens played the Capitals to a 2-2 season series, which will lead many to say that this is a “good matchup” for the Canadiens. First of all, 4 games is a ridiculously small sample to base yourself on. The real positive from this is that all four of the games were close, which likely means an interesting series in the making.
Advantage: Even
Injuries and Intangibles
The most significant potential injury in this matchup is to Nicklas Backstrom, who was initially “questionable” for game 1 but now seems to be fine. It appears his absence was due to illness, not injury, which means he’ll be at full strength. For the Canadiens, Glen Metropolit is still out with a shoulder injury, and while he has skated with the team he will miss at least the first few games. For the most part, these two teams will be at full strength, which is always more enjoyable and makes sure the result has no asterisks on it.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: the Capitals are a much better team than the Canadiens. The Canadiens are obviously a much better team with Markov back in the lineup, and over the last two months they’ve been an above average team. The Capitals are not unstoppable: their defense is suspect, their goaltending is ordinary and their brilliant offense relies on four key offensive sparkplugs. But even adjusting for all of these factors, it’s hard to see how the Canadiens can emerge victorious from this contest. They would’ve been better served by putting more energy into their last three regular-season games and avoiding the #8 seed; they have few enough games left in their season as it is.
Prediction: Washington Capitals in 5 games.
Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.
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