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Want a fast way to handicap the NHL playoff field? We've got you covered. Through the use of Puck Prospectus' GVT metric, we're able to evaluate all the playoff teams against one another across a wide spectrum of key categories.
The attached table allows you to see at a glance how the 16 playoff teams match up against each other as we enter the first round Wednesday. Simply put, the higher the number in each category, the more proficient that team is in that area of the game. Negative numbers signal big deficiencies.
Yesterday we examined upset potential in the East and West. Today we're taking a look at the cream of the crop. Put everything together and you can see our favorite teams to win the 2010 Stanley Cup.
2010 Stanley Cup Contenders
Legend:
Off.- Strength of offense
Def. - Strength of defense
Goal - Goaltending
5-on-5 - Team performance at even strength
PP - Team performance on power play
SH - Team performance shorthanded
Total - Overall team strength.
Team Off. Def. Goal 5-on-5 PP SH Total
Capitals 86.5 (1) -5.2(14) -0.6(10) 72.3 (1) 20.5 (1) -12.1(15) 80.7 (1)
Blackhawks 35.5 (3) 35.9 (1) -15.0(16) 39.1 (2) 0.6(10) 16.7 (1) 56.4 (2)
Canucks 41.5 (2) 5.9(11) 2.7 (9) 38.9 (3) 9.6 (2) 1.6(11) 50.1 (3)
Sharks 30.5 (4) -3.0(13) 17.9 (4) 27.5 (4) 6.2 (7) 11.7 (4) 45.4 (4)
Sabres 4.5 (8) 1.8(12) 23.8 (1) 16.8 (8) 1.5 (9) 11.8 (3) 30.1 (5)
Devils -12.5(13) 31.1 (2) 6.0 (7) 18.1 (6) 2.0 (8) 4.5 (9) 24.6 (6)
Kings 4.5 (9) 18.6 (3) -4.8(12) 16.8 (9) 8.5 (4) -7.0(14) 18.3 (7)
Penguins 22.5 (5) 6.5(10) -12.2(14) 13.7(10) -4.6(14) 7.7 (6) 16.8 (8)
Coyotes -15.5(14) 11.0 (6) 19.6 (2) 21.6 (5) -11.6(16) 5.1 (8) 15.1 (9)
Red Wings -3.5(10) 11.0 (5) 5.0 (8) -4.0(13) 8.5 (5) 8.0 (5) 12.5(10)
Avalanche 10.5 (6) -8.9(16) 10.3 (6) 18.0 (7) -3.0(13) -3.1(13) 11.9(11)
Flyers 5.5 (7) 8.4 (8) -5.6(13) -3.6(12) 8.9 (3) 3.0(10) 8.3(12)
Bruins -30.5(16) 12.6 (4) 19.4 (3) -8.7(14) -2.7(12) 12.9 (2) 1.5(13)
Predators -11.5(12) 10.1 (7) -4.4(11) 11.7(11) -5.1(15) -12.4(16) -5.8(14)
Canadiens -16.5(15) -8.6(15) 14.5 (5) -18.6(16) 6.9 (6) 1.1(12) -10.6(15)
Senators -6.5(11) 7.5 (9) -13.9(15) -18.4(15) -1.8(11) 7.3 (7) -12.9(16)
*Rank among playoff teams in parentheses.
For the most part, the table contains few surprises. The Washington Capitals are the best overall team heading into the playoffs, on the back of the most explosive offense the NHL has seen in a decade. Not only do the Capitals have the league's best power play; they have also outscored their opponents by 72 goals at even strength, far and away the best mark in the NHL. If they could shore up their penalty killing, they would be unstoppable. At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago Blackhawks have the league's best overall defense as well as the best penalty killing. Their real problem, as everyone knows by now, is in the net: The Blackhawks' goaltenders posted the worst regular-season numbers of any of the 16 playoff teams, although Antti Niemi has been better than Cristobal Huet.
Goaltending is perhaps the biggest wild card (check out Timo Seppa's article about first-round goalie matchups here). Almost half the teams are led by goaltenders with no postseason experience and little experience overall, yet these young guns have often outdueled their older colleagues. In recent seasons, youngsters Cam Ward and Marc-Andre Fleury have emerged victorious, while blue-chip goaltenders Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo and Evgeni Nabokov have failed to make it past the first or second round. This is a hard category to handicap, other than to say that the Sabres, with Ryan Miller, lead the pack.
Since these are full-season numbers, some of the teams can plausibly claim to be better than their rankings would indicate. The New Jersey Devils should be a better offensive team since the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, and indeed they have scored 2.81 goals per game since the trade versus 2.51 beforehand. Likewise, the Detroit Red Wings are unlikely to be the fourth-worst team at even strength now that Johan Franzen and Niklas Kronwall are back in the lineup. On the flip side, teams nursing injuries may well underperform. The Ottawa Senators' offense will be handicapped by the absence of Alexei Kovalev, while the Blackhawks' defense has been weaker since the injury to Brian Campbell. The Bruins' offense, already the worst in the NHL, will continue to suffer while Marc Savard recovers.
Special teams seem far less important than play at 5-on-5. The Canadiens' special teams overall are as good as the Capitals', yet they are severe underdogs in their first-round series. The four best teams at 5-on-5 (Washington, Chicago, Vancouver and San Jose) are also the four best overall. Many of the skills exist across categories, especially on the offensive side. Of the five really strong offensive teams, only Pittsburgh has a mediocre power play, and teams with strong goaltending also have strong penalty killing. We can also see that the general consensus that the Western Conference is superior to the Eastern is correct: Of the five weakest playoff teams, only Nashville hails from the West. We can also see that the strongest first-round matchup may well be Vancouver against Los Angeles.
For the most part, the field is quite closely packed. Only Boston, Nashville, Montreal and Ottawa are expected to go quietly in these playoffs. Each of the other 12 teams has the potential to make it at least to the conference finals. It should be a fantastic spring.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider  .
Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.
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