|
April 16, 1961 – The Chicago Blackhawks—led by Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita and Glenn Hall—became the only team outside of Montreal, Toronto and Detroit to win a Stanley Cup championship in the Original Six era. Watching the grainy black and white footage, it’s certainly not the same Cup ceremony we’re used to seeing nowadays, that’s for sure.
But, then again, 1961 was a long, long time ago. It was before Civil Rights, before hippies, before the moon landing, before the Beatles and before the first Super Bowl. JFK was President. And heck, Chris Chelios wasn’t even born yet – though just barely. “Blue Moon” by the Marcels topped the charts.
A completely different world emerged over the following 49 years. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa lifted the Cup again for Chicago on June 9, 2010.
Proudly, Puck Prospectus’ preseason VUKOTA projections nailed the Blackhawks as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, way back in September. In fact, ESPN the Magazine based their Power Rankings on Tom Awad’s projections as well, featuring the faces of Toews, Kane, Hossa and Cristobal Huet on the cover of their NHL Preview Issue. A collectors’ item now?
Exactly how did the Blackhawks do it? Let’s look back on how our VUKOTA projections compared with the regular season performances of Chicago’s main contributors—both by conventional stats as well as by Goals Versus Threshold—starting with their forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold
DGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold
GVT: Goals Versus Threshold
Chicago Blackhawks' forwards - VUKOTA vs. actual
VUKOTA Actual
Name G A P OGVT DGVT GVT G A P OGVT DGVT GVT
Patrick Kane 30 48 78 12.2 2.2 14.5 30 58 88 15.8 3.9 19.1
Jonathan Toews 33 40 73 11.2 3.2 14.5 25 43 68 9.3 4.9 17.0
Marian Hossa 28 33 61 10.6 3.0 13.6 24 27 51 10.3 4.3 15.0
Patrick Sharp 27 25 52 7.5 2.6 10.0 25 41 66 9.9 5.4 14.4
Kris Versteeg 22 33 55 8.5 2.7 11.2 20 24 44 5.8 3.2 9.3
Troy Brouwer 10 16 26 0.4 2.1 2.5 22 18 40 4.9 3.6 8.0
Andrew Ladd 17 26 43 4.9 3.1 8.0 17 21 38 3.4 2.3 5.4
Colin Fraser 6 10 16 -0.4 1.7 1.3 7 12 19 1.4 3.1 4.5
Ben Eager 8 7 15 -0.2 1.2 1.0 7 9 16 1.4 1.8 3.2
Tomas Kopecky 6 10 16 -0.6 1.1 0.5 10 11 21 1.5 1.3 2.8
John Madden 10 15 25 1.2 1.5 2.7 10 13 23 0.2 3.1 2.8
Dave Bolland 19 29 48 6.4 3.1 9.4 6 10 16 0.4 1.9 2.0
Dustin Byfuglien 17 20 37 3.9 1.8 5.7 17 17 34 1.4 1.4 2.0
Adam Burish 7 6 13 -0.8 1.4 0.5 1 3 4 0.2 0.4 0.7
Of note, the two young stars—Kane and Toews—modestly exceeded their projections, both offensively and defensively. Having reached their age 21 seasons, we now have a good idea of what their mature production will be in seasons going forward. 28 year old Patrick Sharp’s contribution was—surprisingly—even greater than Toews, except in the shootout, while Marian Hossa rallied to surpass VUKOTA even while coming back from a preseason shoulder condition.
While Andrew Ladd and Kris Versteeg were among mild disappointments, the biggest surprise of the season was the breakout of 24 year old Troy Brouwer, who gave the team the contribution of a top six forward. Therefore, Brouwer’s relegation to the fourth line in the later games of the Stanley Cup Finals—while the replacement-level Tomas Kopecky remained lined up with his countryman Hossa—jeopardized Chicago’s chances of winning the title. It was a poor choice by Hawks’ coach Joel Quenneville, and a lucky escape in the end.
Brouwer’s rise made up for Dave Bolland’s fall – A precipitous drop in production, both due to half a season missed and a lack of effectiveness. Though taking his share of penalties and making some defensive gaffes, Bolland bounced back in the playoffs to the tune of 8 goals and 8 assists.
Another postseason hero who had a forgettable regular season was big Dustin Byfuglien, falling below point production expectations while finishing at a team worst minus-7 (only one of three Blackhawks with a negative plus-minus), quite a feat on a team this good. No one remembers that Byfuglien anymore, though.
Lower line forwards Colin Fraser, Ben Eager and Tomas Kopecky rode the success of the team to career seasons. John Madden proved to be a minimal contributor. Adam Burish played relatively well over a limited campaign of 13 games.
Chicago Blackhawks' defensemen - VUKOTA vs. actual
VUKOTA Actual
Name G A P OGVT DGVT GVT G A P OGVT DGVT GVT
Duncan Keith 9 29 38 5.3 6.5 11.7 14 55 69 13.7 8.6 22.3
Brian Campbell 9 36 45 6.9 5.3 12.1 7 31 38 5.8 5.6 11.3
Brent Seabrook 8 25 33 4.4 5.4 9.8 4 26 30 2.7 7.7 10.9
Niklas Hjalmarsson 2 7 9 0.0 2.0 1.9 2 15 17 1.3 4.8 6.1
Cam Barker 9 28 37 6.1 3.2 9.3 4 10 14 1.6 2.6 4.0
Jordan Hendry 2 5 7 0.0 1.2 1.2 2 6 8 0.7 1.9 2.7
Brent Sopel 2 8 10 0.5 1.6 2.1 1 7 8 -1.2 3.8 2.6
Nick Boynton 4 12 16 1.3 2.3 3.7 0 1 1 -0.1 0.8 0.7
Duncan Keith––Puck Prospectus’ consensus choice for 2009-10 Norris Trophy winner––fulfilled his promise with an outstanding offensive and defensive season, though he ultimately delivered a dodgy performance in the Finals in his own end of the ice. His defensive partner Brent Seabrook outperformed Keith against the Flyers, and could have been an off-the-board choice for Conn Smythe Trophy winner at 4 G, 7 A, 11 P, plus-8. Former Sabre Brian Campbell turned in a fine season and a rock solid playoff (with a team-leading plus-11) – pretty much the only result that could have made his mega-contract look like a success. Young Niklas Hjalmarsson exceeded VUKOTA’s limited expectations, while journeyman Brent Sopel saved his best play for the postseason – His line of 1 G, 5 A, 6 P, plus-7 nearly equaled that of his regular season.
Chicago Blackhawks' goalkeepers - VUKOTA vs. actual
VUKOTA Actual
Name GP GAA Sv% GGVT SGVT GVT GP GAA Sv% GGVT SGVT GVT
Antti Niemi 14 -- -- 0.3 0.0 0.3 36.5 2.25 0.91 3.9 3.4 8.8
Corey Crawford 14.4 -- -- 6.9 0.0 1.3 1.0 3.05 0.91 0.2 0.0 0.1
Cristobal Huet 37.4 -- -- 4.4 -0.1 6.2 45.5 2.50 0.90 -9.4 -0.6 -7.4
Among the reasons for VUKOTA’s favoring the Blackhawks in the preseason was an assumption of decent goaltending for 2009-10. While Nikolai Khabibulin was forgettable in the 2008-09 playoffs, his 2008-09 regular season would have been welcome in 2009-10 given the poor play of this year’s starter. The silver lining on Cristobal Huet’s career worst season was that Chicago was forced to give Antti Niemi a tryout, which he parlayed into a starting role. The Finn’s NHL-average goaltending turned out to be enough on a team that featured one of the NHL’s strongest defenses.
So can the Blackhawks turn one championship into a dynasty? Maybe.
Superior young talent in Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Kris Versteeg, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith give Chicago the foundation they need – a foundation that is currently supported by top veterans Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp and Brian Campbell. But the twin issue that will need to be resolved in a positive manner is the tight salary cap and the uncertain goaltending situation - without Cristobal Huet’s contract, the Blackhawks would be in excellent position to pick up a quality goaltender through free agency or a trade. For all those that laud Dale Tallon as the architect of this Stanley Cup victory, the former general manager certainly placed several contractual obstacles in the way of turning 2009-10 into a dynasty.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads