January 2, 2011
Shots On Goal
Fantasy Week 13

by Timo Seppa

GREEN LIGHTS

Players from nine teams benefit from four games this week: Carolina, Chicago, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, San Jose, Tampa Bay, Vancouver and the New York Islanders.

"Base rate" = VUKOTA-projected rates for the 2010-11 season.
*Asterisk denotes second game of back-to-back games.

C Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils
Base rates: 0.31 G, 0.50 A, 0.81 P
Overview: 4 games. 3 home, 1 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: MIN, PHI, @PHI, TBL*

In Week 12, Zajac was our suggested Value Add, in case he had fallen out of favor in your league during New Jersey's massive struggles throughout the first half of the 2010-11 campaign. Now for Week 13, we're suggesting that you go "all in" with the young centerman, as he's one of the only Devils who has registered a pulse of recent. Including a six game stretch that saw the team score only one goal per game, New Jersey has scored an utterly anemic 22 goals over their last 13 contests. Fortunately, Zajac has figured in a full 50% of those goals, a 0.85 points per game clip that actually exceeds his VUKOTA-projected rate.

LW Jeff Tambellini, Vancouver Canucks
Base rates: 0.17 G, 0.21 A, 0.38 P
Overview: 4 games. 3 home, 1 road. 2 back-to-back.
Schedule: @SJS*, CGY, EDM, DET*

Everything in Jeff Tambellini's career to date had pointed towards his being a replacement level player until this season, when all of a sudden, he's broken out for nine goals and five assists in 22 games. Playing on a loaded team like the Canucks doesn't hurt, but it certainly seems like there's been some element of late blooming involved with the 26-year-old winger. And it's been even better for Tambellini of late, posting six points in his last seven games. Impressively, the son of Edmonton Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini has recorded only one minus game all season long (October 26th against Colorado).

RW P.A. Parenteau, New York Islanders
Base rates: 0.14 G, 0.23 A, 0.37 P
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @CGY, @EDM, @COL, @CHI*

Starting with the Islanders win against Anaheim on December 16th—New York is 6-1-1 since then—career minor leaguer P.A. Parenteau has broken out of a scoring slump by posting five goals and three assists over the course of eight contests. A source of power play points when he's going well like this, the former Ranger has 4 PPP over the stretch of games.

D Keith Yandle, Phoenix Coyotes
Base rates: 0.14 G, 0.40 A, 0.53 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: CBJ, @COL, BUF

Starting off the season at a fine pace of 13 points in 24 games, 24-year-old Keith Yandle has absolutely caught fire, posting a pretty ridiculous 14 points in 13 games (for a relatively unknown defenseman). Who's leading the Coyotes in points this season? Yes, it's Yandle (27), currently edging out veteran forwards Ray Whitney (25) and Shane Doan (23).

D Andrew MacDonald, New York Islanders
Base rates: 0.04 G, 0.16 A, 0.21 P
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @CGY, @EDM, @COL, @CHI*

One of the unsung heroes of the New York Islanders is 24-year-old blueliner Andrew MacDonald, a youngster with all of 70 career big league games under his belt. Few outsiders realize the sophomore defenseman's impact on the Isles: New York is 10-8-3 (.548) with MacDonald in the lineup and 1-11-3 (.167) without him. Though a player with more real than fantasy impact, MacDonald's "virtual usefulness" has increased with the James Wisniewski's trade, as he should see an increase in his overall and power play ice time. His numbers are more than solid over the past ten games: no goals, but eight assists and five power play points.

G Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders
Base projection: .906 save percentage
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @CGY, @EDM, @COL, @CHI*

Yes, there's one more Islander for you to consider for your starting lineup this week, and it's the much-maligned Rick DiPietro, he of the .888 save percentage. The great news for fantasy owners is of course that co-starter Dwayne Roloson was just traded to the goaltending-starved Tampa Bay Lightning, opening the door for D.P. to get the lion's share of the starts of the rest of the season (though the Isles will no doubt give the injury-plagued netminder his share of rest). If you're looking for a silver lining about DiPietro's performance to date, his save percentage is .920 over the past four games, and the upcoming schedule certainly features some winnable games. Minutia: in an interesting quirk, Rick's given up 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 goals over his last seven games.

RED LIGHTS

Five teams have only two games on their schedule for Week 13: Montreal, Ottawa, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Washington.

C Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals
Base rates: 0.43 G, 0.84 A, 1.27 P
Overview: 2 games. 2 home, 0 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: TBL, FLA

Nicklas Backstrom is one of many Capitals struggling through a vastly subpar season, as detailed by Rob Vollman last week. Backstrom's not suffering from a particularly low shooting percentage, though (11.3% vs 12.4% career), so don't look for too much bounceback on that front. Three assists in past four games could be seen by the glass-half-full crowd as a positive sign, but the glass-half-empty crowd would no doubt point to no goals and seven assists over the past month.

LW Brian Gionta, Montreal Canadiens
Base rates: 0.36 G, 0.39 A, 0.75 P
Overview: 2 games. 2 home, 0 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: PIT, BOS

With Montreal in the middle of a 3-8-0 skid, you wouldn't expect the stat line of many of their players to read well, so captain Brian Gionta's four goals and zero assists over the past ten games doesn't seem all that bad. Keep in mind, though, that Gionta has posted a poor -6 rating and only 1 PPP over that stretch. Until you see the Habs turn their game around, you'll want to avoid even their better players, and especially on a week with only two games against tough opponents.

RW Lee Stempniak, Phoenix Coyotes
Base rates: 0.25 G, 0.34 A, 0.59 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: CBJ, @COL, BUF

27-year-old Lee Stempniak has gone from cold to ice cold over the course of the season—he's got nothing but goose eggs to show for his last nine games. But we're not sure that this isn't pretty close to what you should expect from Stempniak. If you take out the 18-game ridiculous hot streak upon his acquisition by Phoenix in 2009-10 (14 goals on 48 shots for a 29.3% shooting percentage), his last three seasons' shooting percentages would read 8.0%, 8.2% and 8.5%—certainly quite poor by top six forward standards. It makes this season's 8.7% shooting percentage actually look good in comparison—Stempniak's 11.5% career shooting percentage is mostly based on ancient history.

D Mike Green, Washington Capitals
Base rates: 0.23 G, 0.67 A, 0.90 P
Overview: 2 games. 2 home, 0 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: TBL, FLA

Another of the struggling, big name Caps, Mike Green has only two goals, two assists and a -1 rating to show for his last 30 days of work, and you'll remember that he was credited for one of those assists during the Winter Classic on a play where he fanned on a shot at point blank range while falling flat on his face. Green does have points in each of his last four games, but that was following zero points over the seven games preceding that. Green's shooting percentage has only been a tick below his career rate (8.2% vs. 9.2%), but his assist totals are suffering greatly, in part from Alex Ovechkin's 7.8% shooting percentage (vs. his 12.1% career shooting percentage).

D Steve Montador, Buffalo Sabres
Base rates: 0.07 G, 0.24 A, 0.31 P
Overview: 3 games. 0 home, 3 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: @COL, @SJS, @PHX

Two weeks ago, we picked the slumping Jordan Leopold as a Red Light, and while Leopold's -11 rating over the past month has been truly painful for his fantasy owners, at least he's still putting up a few points. A month ago, Steve Montador was a popular free agent addition in most leagues, having started the season with in three goals, seven assists and a +12 rating over his first 20 games. Since then, it's been zero goals, two assists and a -2 rating over past 19 games, causing the journeyman defender to be dropped just as fast. Though his production was already starting to slow down by then, Montador hasn't seemed to be the same after his December 3 fight against Columbus' Jared Boll.

G Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
Base rates: .908 save percentage
Overview: 2 games. 2 home, 0 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: PIT, BOS

Call me when we finally figure out what the deal is with Carey Price. He's good, he's bad, he's good, he's bad and now he's bad again. Though still a sparkling .921 save percentage and 2.32 GAA for the season, Price has slumped to a .889 save percentage over past month with a 3.05 GAA. With two tough contests on the docket, going somewhere else for your goaltending starts might be advised for Week 13.

VALUE ADD

G Dwayne Roloson, Tampa Bay Lightning
Base projection: .910 save percentage

Though Steve Yzerman could have held out to try to get a bigger fish—for instance, Tomas Vokoun or one of Boston's netminders—the acquisition of 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson should fix Tampa Bay's biggest deficiency (by far), turning the Bolts into a team to be reckoned with in the East. Assuming that Roloson provides league average goaltending—somewhere between his VUKOTA-projected .910 save percentage and his current .916 save percentage—he should receive the majority of starts in net for the Lightning, giving the veteran netminder a major boost in Wins over the six wins in 20 starts he earned with New York.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.