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Which players have been the biggest surprises and disappointments of the 2010-11 NHL season so far?
To answer that question, we'll compare each player's actual contributions to their preseason projections we calculated using the VUKOTA system. In order to compare all types of contributions, whether they're defensive, offensive or in the shootout, we'll use GVT, which allows us to compare everyone from stay-at-home defensemen to power forwards.
Goalies exceeding expectations
Goalie Team GVT VUK Diff
Tim Thomas Boston Bruins 26.3 4.8 21.5
Ondrej Pavelec Atlanta Thrashers 17.5 -0.6 18.1
Jonathan Quick Los Angeles Kings 17.9 2.1 15.8
Carey Price Montreal Canadiens 14.3 1.6 12.7
Cam Ward Carolina Hurricanes 13.0 3.3 9.7
Among active goalies who have faced at least 3000 shots since the lockout, Thomas entered the season with the third highest even-strength save percentage, so it's not necessarily a surprise that 2008-09's Vezina winner would be this year's best goalie. That said, his .949 save percentage is 16 points higher than his career high, when he finished tied for the second highest single-season save percentage in history, so it should definitely cool off a little in the second half.
The only surprise that can possibly compare is Atlanta's Ondrej Pavelec, whose save percentage jumped from a career best of .906 last season to .939 and whose goals-against average (1.96) dropped below 3.00 for the first time. While it's not unusual for players to break out at age 23, his .939 save percentage is far higher than the .912 he earned in the AHL. Normally a spike like that could be attributed to an overachieving blue line, but look how poorly Chris Mason has done between those very same red pipes. His save percentage is 16 points below his career average, and his goals-against average a full goal higher.
Goalies with disappointing performances
Goalie Team GVT VUK Diff
Martin Brodeur New Jersey Devils -8.1 4.0 -12.1
Chris Mason Atlanta Thrashers -4.1 4.0 -8.1
Craig Anderson Colorado Avalanche -2.1 5.9 8.0
Rick DiPietro New York Islanders -7.6 -0.2 -7.8
Ty Conklin St. Louis Blues -5.0 2.2 -7.2
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