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The trade deadline is still over a month away, but that hasn't stopped a few teams from getting a head start. The New York Rangers were blessed with enough blueline depth to ship overpriced veteran Michal Rozsival to the Phoenix Coyotes for enigmatic but talented winger Wojtek Wolski. Meanwhile, the basement-dwelling New Jersey Devils dealt veteran asset Jamie Langenbrunner back to the legitimate contenders in Dallas, who shipped Fabian Brunnstrom to another basement dweller, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
This week, we're going to use the Snepsts system to look through the NHL's long history to find players with statistics similar to these four players, to gain some insight into what to expect from them in their new digs. Rather than explain the system in detail, a demonstration is worth a thousand words, so here are links to all previous projections:
Nicklas Backstrom
Andrew Brunette
Eric Cole
Sidney Crosby
Pavel Datsyuk
Mike Green
Bill Guerin
Dany Heatley
Victor Hedman
Marian Hossa
Jarome Iginla
Olli Jokinen
Phil Kessel
Ilya Kovalchuk
David Krejci
Kris Letang
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Marleau
Alex Ovechkin
Tyler Seguin
Alexander Semin
Jason Spezza
Eric Staal
Steven Stamkos
John Tavares
Ryan Whitney
Jamie Langenbrunner, 34, Dallas Stars
Jamie Langenbrunner, captain of the Silver medalist USA 2010 Olympic hockey team, must be thrilled to return to Dallas, where he won his first Stanley Cup back in 1999. By acquiring the accomplished two-way clutch game competitor, the Stars are obviously willing to part with a 2nd-round pick if it means a deep playoff run.
The closest comparables to Langenbrunner at this advanced stage in his career include Cliff Ronning and Claude Provost, who would earn a modern era average of 14 goals and 24 assists for 38 points over 71 games. Assuming he plays all remaining games, Langenbrunner's on pace for just 8 goals and 21 assists for 29 points, placing him at the lower end of his preseason expectations.
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
36 Cliff Ronning 2001-02 81 20 38 58
33 Claude Provost 1966-67 64 10 13 23
35 Andrew Brunette 2008-09 80 21 27 48
35 Alex Delvecchio 1967-68 74 22 50 72
35 Earl Ingarfield 1969-70 54 20 24 44
36 Cory Stillman 2009-10 58 15 22 37
34 Kelly Kisio 1993-94 51 6 20 26
33 Valery Kamensky 1999-00 58 13 20 33
33 Thomas Steen 1993-94 76 16 28 44
35 Saku Koivu 2009-10 71 19 33 52
Worst (Provost) 71 11 14 25
Best (Delvecchio) 71 21 48 69
Average 71 17 29 46
VUKOTA (over 71 GP) 71 19 33 52
Before the season began, we would have projected Langenbrunner to threaten the 20-goal mark for the fifth and possibly final time, and push the 50 point mark. While his slow start on a disappointing Devils team makes those targets unlikely, it's still possible he could contribute closer to that level down the stretch.
Wojtek Wolski, 24, New York Rangers
If Polish-born Wojtek Wolski were to play all remaining games, he'd be on pace for 13 goals and 19 assists for 32 points in 75 games. However, keep in mind that last season a trade ignited his scoring, and he earned 18 points in the final 18 games, before leading the Coyotes in postseason goal scoring.
Wolski has a lot of potential, and the Rangers are gambling that he's worth the $3.8 million dollar cap hit next year. Using a simpler system, his five closest comparables include George Armstrong, John Tonelli, Murray Craven, Mike Ricci and David Legwand, who would average 20 goals and 29 assists for 49 points in 75 games. The Snepsts system agrees with this estimate.
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
26 Carey Wilson 1988-89 75 24 34 58
25 John Tonelli 1982-83 76 22 30 52
26 Art Chapman 1932-33 46 4 10 14
23 David Legwand 2003-04 82 19 32 51
26 Gregg Sheppard 1975-76 70 25 37 62
23 Alex Delvecchio 1955-56 70 27 31 58
22 Mike Ricci 1993-94 83 26 18 44
23 Stan Smyl 1980-81 80 18 29 47
24 Thomas Gradin 1980-81 79 15 36 51
25 Thomas Steen 1985-86 78 12 34 46
Worst (Chapman) 75 6 17 23
Best (Sheppard) 75 27 39 66
Average 75 19 29 48
VUKOTA (over 75 GP) 75 21 37 58
It's interesting that we'd get Thomas Steen and Alex Delvecchio as comparables for both Jamie Langenbrunner and Wojtek Wolski, albeit at different points of their careers. And indeed, Langenbrunner's statistics were very similar to Wolski's at that stage in his career, so it's certainly quite a coincidence we'd cover them both in the same article. Of course, Langenbrunner was wearing a brand new Stanley Cup ring when he was 24—it would be quite an accomplishment if Wolski could do the same atop the dark horse that are the Rangers.
Michal Rozsival, 32, Phoenix Coyotes
Though currently suffering a minor rib injury, if Michal Rozsival were to come back and play all remaining Coyote games, he's on pace for six goals and 26 assists for 32 points in 69 games. Should he achieve that, he'd be sitting atop our preseason projections.
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
32 Andy Sutton 2007-08 58 1 7 8
31 Alexander Khavanov 2002-03 81 8 26 34
32 Toni Lydman 2009-10 67 4 16 20
31 Kim Johnsson 2007-08 80 4 23 27
34 Steve Staios 2007-08 82 7 9 16
34 Ted Harris 1970-71 78 2 12 14
33 Ed Kea 1980-81 74 2 14 16
32 Grant Ledyard 1993-94 84 8 33 41
31 Gus Mortson 1955-56 52 5 12 17
30 Phil Russell 1982-83 78 9 13 22
Worst (Sutton) 69 1 8 9
Best (Ledyard) 69 6 27 33
Average 69 5 15 19
VUKOTA (over 69 GP) 69 4 18 22
Though not known as an elite defensive player, the veteran Czech led the NHL in plus-minus while feeding the puck to Jaromir Jagr in 2005-06. He'd go on to lead all New York Ranger defensemen in scoring for four straight seasons, earning a huge $24 million contract on a team not known for overpaying marginal players (ahem, that was sarcastic).
We may have been tough on Rozsival recently, but we have to hand it to him, he's currently exceeding our expectations and could be useful in Phoenix. At the very least, he allowed the Rangers to extract more value out of this trade than we thought possible, something that could pay off for both teams if he can continue to produce at the same level as the high water mark set by Grant Ledyard.
Fabian Brunnstrom, 25, Toronto Maple Leafs
As a bonus, we're including a quick analysis of Fabian Brunnstrom, who has yet to play this season. With only two partial seasons with which to work, there are so few comparables that any accuracy is bound to be nothing more than a fluke. With 38 games left, the Maple Leafs have nothing to lose by giving the Brunnstrom Experiment one last shot.
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
26 Claude Larose 1968-69 67 23 36 59
26 Brent Grieve 1995-96 28 2 4 6
23 Landon Wilson 1998-99 22 3 3 6
25 Daniel Carcillo 2009-10 76 12 10 22
27 John McCormack 1952-53 59 1 12 13
27 Grant Marshall 2000-01 75 13 24 37
26 Ian Laperriere 1999-00 79 9 13 22
25 Paul Woods 1980-81 67 6 12 18
25 Daniel Marois 1993-94 22 6 3 9
23 Jaroslav Svoboda 2003-04 33 3 1 4
Worst (Svoboda) 38 4 1 5
Best (Larose) 38 13 20 33
Average 38 6 8 14
VUKOTA (over 38 GP) 38 6 9 15
To supplement this analysis, we looked at his totals in the Swedish Elite League, where Brunnstrom scored 37 points in 54 games at the age of 22 back in 2007-08. Normalizing for era, the players within two years of age who scored at the most similar level and went on to play in the NHL include Per Svartvadet, Mathias Johansson, Rickard Wallin and Espen Knutsen. Of them, only Svartvadet saw any kind of action as a young player, and it wasn't particularly encouraging. There's a slim hope that the Brunnstrom gamble could really pay off, but it's more likely he'll be a depth option at best, and bag 14-15 points the rest of the way.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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