January 25, 2011
Howe and Why
Lafleur vs. Dionne

by Robert Vollman

Stealing Guy

In one of the worst trades in NHL history, California Golden Seals GM Charlie Finley agreed to part with their first round choice in 1971 for Ernie Hicke and Montreal's first choice in 1970. Furthermore, to ensure that the Golden Seals would finish last and secure for them the first overall draft choice, Montreal GM Sam Pollock sent Ralph Backstrom to the last place Kings.

Why did Montreal go to all this effort to get 1971's first overall pick? Because that was the year Guy Lafleur became available. The Hall of Famer would win five Stanley Cups as a Hab, and earn six straight 50-goal, 100-point seasons from 1974-80, a first team all star each time.

While it would be foolish to try to list all of his accomplishments, we will remind you that the Blonde Demon won the Hart Trophy twice, the Conn Smythe once, and the Art Ross on three occasions. He currently sits 23rd all time in goals—12th at even strength and sixth in game winners—eighth in plus-minus, 25th in points, and 13th in points per game. The Hockey News ranked Guy Lafleur as the 11th greatest hockey player of all time. He is 38th in all time GVT.

In short, it's pretty obvious that Montreal pulled off quite a coup by securing one of the game's greatest players for just Ernie Hicke, Chris Oddleifson (the player chosen by California) and Ralph Backstrom. Adding it all up, Montreal gained almost 170 goals with these two moves:

Evaluating the "Lafleur trade"

Player             GP  G   A   PTS  +/-  GVT
Guy Lafleur      1126 560 793 1353 +453 281.9

Player             GP  G   A   PTS  +/-  GVT
Ernie Hicke       520 132 140  272 -145  58.9
Chris Oddleifson  524  95 191  286  -12  32.6
Ralph Backstrom*  188  63  74  137  -41  22.3
TOTAL            1232 290 405  695 -198 113.8

*Career totals after leaving Montreal, doesn't include 304 games in the WHA

What about Marcel?

With the Los Angeles Kings propelled up the standings by Ralph Backstrom, the second overall choice then fell to the Detroit Red Wings, who drafted Marcel Dionne. Interestingly, Dionne would sign with the Kings a few years later, and Dan Maloney, who was acquired by the Kings for Ralph Backstrom, was part of the compensation package sent to Detroit.

Dionne, a Hall of Famer himself, racked up career totals of which even Lafleur would be envious. The Beaver currently stands fourth all-time among goal scorers—second at even strength and seventh on the power play—fifth in points and sixth in points per game. However, he never won either the Stanley Cup or the Hart Trophy, won the Art Ross only once, and was a first team all-star only twice. He is consequently ranked as the 38th greatest hockey player all-time despite being 22nd all-time in GVT

Still, you have to wonder if the Montreal Canadiens made the right choice trading Ralph Backstrom to the California Golden Seals to get Guy Lafleur instead of merely being satisfied with the second overall pick, and Marcel Dionne.

What if Montreal had stood pat and selected Dionne?

Player             GP  G   A   PTS  +/-  GVT
Marcel Dionne    1348 731 1040 1771 +44 325.2
Ralph Backstrom*  188  63   74  137 -41  22.3
TOTAL            1536 794 1114 1908  +3 347.5

In this scenario, the Montreal Canadiens would be up 66 goals in value compared to having Guy Lafleur. Not only would they probably still have won their Stanley Cups, they might even have scratched out another thanks to Dionne's longevity.

Lafleur vs. Dionne

Would the Montreal Canadiens truly have been better off with Marcel Dionne than history's 11th greatest player? Very few of my hockey-loving friends and colleagues would agree, despite the picture painted by comparing their point-scoring totals over the years.

Lafleur (red) vs. Dionne (blue), points per season

Guy Lafleur had an awesome prime, but it lasted only six seasons, during which time Dionne still outscored him twice. Dionne's prime lasted at least twice as long, and would even have overlapped Montreal's two Stanley Cup appearances in the 1980's.

Of course, point totals don't tell the whole story. While Marcel Dionne was getting all the ice time he could handle on a freewheeling Los Angeles Kings team, Guy Lafleur was playing under a tight and defensively responsible Montreal Canadiens system, and having to battle for every minute of playing time. Indeed, he retired early because he felt constrained by the tight system and lack of opportunity, and proved upon his return at ages 37-39 that he could have been quite productive during those interim seasons.

Fortunately we can use GVT to get a more accurate comparison of Dionne and Lafleur, one that includes all of their contributions, both offensive and defensive. In this way we can see that Lafleur's prime far surpassed Dionne's, and up until 1982 the gap between them was relatively small.

Lafleur (red) vs. Dionne (blue), GVT per season

Thinking about it now, would the equally offensive-minded Dionne's career also been wrapped up prematurely had it been choked by limited ice time and the tight defensive system in Montreal?

Furthermore, given the 10+ goal value gap between Lafleur and Dionne from 1974-1978, would Montreal really have hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup four straight years without Lafleur? It's possible the team would have been better in the early 1980s, but with the retirement of their other key players, would it have been enough to get Bob Berry (who coincidentally coached Dionne in Los Angeles in 1978-1981) and a far less dominant Montreal club a Stanley Cup ring?

Wrapping Up

Fundamentally, I think the bottom line is that the Montreal Canadiens would have been fantastic with either player. While the Beaver didn't peak as high as the Blonde Demon, his prime lasted far longer, and even if a Cup or two had been lost in the mid-70's, it may have been gained back in the early 80's.

If there's a moral to this story, it's not to lose your number one draft choices. Just as California missed out on a potentially franchise-saving player, the Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils might feel the same sting in a few years.

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.