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Washington V.S. New York
The nearly starless Broadway Blueshirts roll into America’s capitol to take on one of the most star-filled teams in the NHL. Alexander Ovechkin and the high flying offense of the Washington Capitals will get to strut their stuff on the national stage against Henrik Lundqvist, one of the better goaltenders in the league. Only one team can prevail. Will it be the team that has excelled all season or the team that recently put everything together with the additions of Sean Avery and Nik Antropov?
Washington Offense vs. New York Defense
Washington Offense GVT: + 15.8 (Rank: 6th in NHL)
New York Defense GVT: - 1.4 (Rank: 19th in NHL)
New York Goaltending GVT: + 2.3 GVT (Rank: 14th in NHL)
The offense of Washington against the defense of New York at Even Strength is the aspect of the matchup that has received the most coverage so far. The Rangers have a reputation for priding themselves on defense after their solid performance last year. What nobody seemed to notice is how much they fell off this year. This former strength should be exposed when going up against an offense that fired the second most shots per game, 33.5, in the league.
Alexander Ovechkin, 36 ESG, and Alexander Semin, 26 ESG, are among the top 10 Even Strength Goal scorers, while Center Nicklas Backstrom joins those two in the category of top 20 Point getters among forwards in the sport.
Marc Stall will be responsible for keeping track of Alexander Ovechkin by constantly being on the ice with Alex to try to make things easier for the netminder Henrik Lundqvist. Wade Redden will attempt to be an effective defenseman for once, but this is not the team to turn the corner against. Dan Girardi, Paul Mara and Michal Rozsival will supplement the defense and provide plenty of minutes on the ice. Overall, this matchup looks fairly bleak for the New York Rangers. The Capitals averaged 3.27 Goals Per Game all season for third best in the league. If the Rangers manage to keep Washington to around 3 goals for each game of this series, they have done their job.
This may come down to Henrik Lundqvist. The 6’1’’, 195 lb. veteran has been good, but not great on the year. The Rangers goaltender has contributed heavily to the mediocre GVT at Even Strength on the season. The Sweden-native has posted a solid .916 Save Percentage and similarly comparable .920 Even Strength Save Percentage throughout the Rangers 2008-2009 campaign. While respectable, these numbers are not encouraging against arguably the ‘Greatest Show On Ice.’
Advantage: Washington Capitals
New York Offense vs. Washington Defense
New York Offense GVT: - 18.2 (Rank: 25th in NHL)
Washington Defense GVT: + 6.3 (Rank: 12th in NHL)
Washington Goaltending GVT: - 1.6 (Rank: 17th in NHL)
Washington defensive woes are exacerbated by a less than stellar Penalty Killing unit. Their 19th ranked 240 Goals Allowed improve a bit to 11th overall when their Even Strength Goals, 141, are the only component kept in the equation. Jose Theodore’s goaltending also jumps from a measly .900 Save Percentage to a decent .913 at Even Strength. Norris candidate Mike Green fronts a defense that can be dangerous on offense at times and is supplemented by the likes of veteran Tom Poti and Jeff Schultz.
The matchups go from bad to worse for the Rangers. New York did not have one forward score over 30 Goals or 20 Even Strength Goals on the season and it doesn’t help to have Center Chris Drury out for at least the first game of the series. John Tortorella has tried to push up the tempo of the game for the Rangers offense, but that hasn’t come into fruition. Nikolai Zherdev has been one of the better players on the team, posting a surprising 12th ranked 18.5 Relative Plus/Minus on the season, while new comer Nik Antropov is a legitimate offensive threat. The Rangers have also received fairly productive years out of Markus Naslund, Ryan Callahan and Scott Gomez. However, they’ll need a few breakout games in the postseason to make up for their 29th ranked 198 Goals Scored and 25th ranked 130 Even Strength Goals Scored.
For all the talk of a great goaltending disparity, GVT see’s Lundqvist and Theodore as not that far apart for this season. As for their future career paths, that’s another story. The disparity is the result of each teams’ Penalty Killing Unit. The Rangers have been one of the best Penalty Killing teams of the past decade, while the Capitals have been below average on the season.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Washington Power Play vs. New York Penalty Kill
Washington Power Play Offense GVT: + 21.1 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
New York Penalty Kill Defense GVT: + 22.3 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
This is clearly the most exciting categorical matchup, pinning among the greatest special teams units of the past handful of years up against one another. The Capitals have scored on approximately one out of every four Power Plays for a 25.2 % Power Play efficiency, while the Rangers have fended off Power Play goals for a Penalty Killing efficiency of 87.8 %. The multi-talented Mike Green, only 23 years old, managed to post an astonishing 18 Power Play Goals on the year. As good as the Capitals Power Play Offense GVT has been against average, the Rangers Penalty Killing Defense GVT has been slightly better.
Advantage: New York Rangers
New York Power Play vs. Washington Penalty Kill
New York Power Play Offense GVT: - 17.6 (Rank: 29th in NHL)
Washington Penalty Kill Defense GVT: - 1.7 (Rank: 18th in NHL)
On the opposite side of the special team spectrum for the Capitals and Rangers, we have a more mundane matchup. The Capitals have been very average with a 17th ranked Penalty Killing unit that successfully prevents goals only 80.6 % of the time. The Rangers have scored on Power Plays 20.9 % of the time, which ranks them second to last in the league. The Rangers maybe 15th in terms of GVT in drawing -0.6 penalties or 0.6 penalties below average, but it wouldn’t matter considering that they are as effective against Washington when they are on Special Teams Offense as they are against Washington when they are on Even Strength Offense.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Season Series Results
Washington won three of the four games against New York, outscoring the Rangers 14 to 11 during the season series. In the second game of the series, New York had a 4 – 0 lead at one point. The Capitals scored four unanswered goals to send the game to overtime, where they ended up winning by a score of 5 – 4. The New York Rangers only regular season series win came when Ryan Callahan fired a shot that struck the crossbar and ricocheted into the net behind Jose Theodore during a shootout back on February 11.
Advantage: Washington Capitals
Injuries and Intangibles
The Rangers have been one of the healthiest teams all season. On the eve of their first playoff game, it was discovered that Chris Drury would be out with an “undisclosed injury” for at least the first game. Sources close to Puck Prospectus have told us that the New York Rangers captain is dealing with a wrist injury. There’s a chance that the Center is out for at least the first round of the playoffs and possibly longer should the Rangers defeat the Capitals.
Sean Avery, after a brief hiatus to Dallas, is back with the Rangers. Often described as a pest on the ice, the former Vogue intern appeared to have an effect on goaltender Martin Brodeur during the New York Rangers-New Jersey Devils first round playoff series last year. If Avery can accomplish what he did for the Rangers against Brodeur last year against Jose Theodore, New York’s anemic offense might be able to come to life.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
The Washington Capitals have a 70 % chance of winning this series, which makes them the third biggest favorite in the first round for either conference. The Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers also have the second biggest disparity in terms of team GVT, behind only the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens. While the Rangers have a good goaltender and a great penalty killing team, they’ll need to find a way to stop Alexander Ovechkin and score around four to five goals per game to win. While not impossible, it certainly does not seem likely. In the first round of each of the past three years, there has been one sweep. There is a good chance that this is the series with the sweep.
Prediction: Washington in 4 games.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
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